[Ips-wgr] IPS Weekly Geo. Report (15 May 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 15 MAY 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (06 MAY - 14 MAY)
K indices are in UT (0-24). For conversion to local time:
AEST = UT + 10 hours; ACST = UT + 9.5 hours; AWST = UT + 8 hours
        Australian Region*              
 Date     K-INDICES    A               
 06 May   3323 4444   20     
 07 May   3455 4433   27     
 08 May   3335 4553   28    
 09 May   3454 4323   22 
	  A weak (25nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter 
	  data at 0519UT on 09 May, and a weak (27nT) impulse was 
	  observed at 0731UT on 09 May.
 10 May   4554 2232   23 
	  A weak (14nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter 
	  data at 0253UT on 10 May, and a weak (39nT) impulse was 
	  observed at 0837UT on 10 May.
 11 May   3243 4333   17    
 12 May   3333 4333   16    
 13 May   3334 3333   16    
 14 May   3443 3433   19    

*estimated from real time data

Geomagnetic activity has been elevated at unsettled to active 
levels throughout the past week, reaching minor storm levels 
on May 7 and May 10. The activity has been a result of elevated
solar wind parameters due to a large, irregular shaped 
trans-equatorial coronal hole. At the time of report issue, this
feature is rotating out of geoeffective range, but solar wind 
parameters remain elevated and a number of smaller coronal hole 
features are approaching geoeffective solar longitude.

2. FORECAST (15 MAY - 14 JUNE)
Recurrent coronal holes may produce extended periods of mild to 
moderately disturbed geomagnetic conditions.

Disturbed Periods: 
15-22 May Unsettled to active, isolated minor storm periods possible
25-29 May Unsettled to active, isolated minor storm periods possible
02-14 June Unsettled to active, isolated minor storm periods possible

Best Quiet Periods: 
23-24 May
30 May - 1 June

PLEASE NOTE:  
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions 
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not 
able to be forecasted a week in advance. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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