[Ips-wgr] IPS Weekly Geo. Report (14 November 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 14 NOVEMBER 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (05 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER)
K indices are in UT (0-24). For conversion to local time:
AEST = UT + 10 hours; ACST = UT + 9.5 hours; AWST = UT + 8 hours
        Australian Region*              
 Date     K-INDICES    A               
 05 Nov   3344 4334   21     
 06 Nov   3333 3233   14     
 07 Nov   3233 2232   11    
 08 Nov   2122 2122    6    
 09 Nov   2021 0124    6    A weak (11nT) impulse was observed in the IPS
                            magnetomter data at 1850UT on 09 Nov.
 10 Nov   4442 2223   15    
 11 Nov   3334 4223   16    A weak (22nT) impulse was observed in the IPS
                            magnetomter data at 1231UT on 11 Nov.
 12 Nov   3343 3233   15    A weak (11nT) impulse was observed in the IPS
                            magnetomter data at 0253UT on 12 Nov.
 13 Nov   4322 4222   13    A weak (15nT) impulse was observed in the IPS
                            magnetomter data at 0107UT on 13 Nov.

*estimated from real time data

Mildy disturbed conditions observed second half of weak, mostly
associated with solar mass ejection activity.

2. FORECAST (14 NOVEMBER - 14 DECEMBER)
Disturbed Periods: 
16-17 Nov: Active to minor storm 
20-22 Nov: Active to minor storm 
31 Oct-01 Nov: unsettled to active
08 Dec: chance of active periods

Best Quiet Periods: 
23-29 Nov
04-06 Dec
10-13 Dec

PEASE NOTE: A relatively large sunspot region is nearing the centre
of the solar disk. This region has good flare potential, but has yet
to produce signficant activity. This region will be in a very
geoeffective location (just west of the centre of the solar disk)
over the next few days. If this region "wakes up" mass ejection
induced geomagnetic activity may be experienced over the coming
week.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060