[Ips-wgr] IPS Weekly Geo. Report (29 March 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 29 MARCH 2001, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

++++CORRECTED COPY+++++

1. SUMMARY (20 MARCH - 28 MARCH)
K indices are in UT (0-24). For conversion to local time:
AEST = UT + 10 hours; ACST = UT + 9.5 hours; AWST = UT + 8 hours
        Australian Region*              
 Date     K-INDICES    A               
 20 Mar   4355 7643   50        
 21 Mar   2212 1014    7       
 22 Mar   1222 3333   10      
 23 Mar   3434 4433   21     
 24 Mar   2332 4322   12    
 25 Mar   1222 1012    4           
 26 Mar   2211 2012    4           
 27 Mar   4323 2345   20
 28 Mar   3255 5433   27

*estimated from real time data

Disturbed conditions observed on 20Mar, 23 mar and 27-28 Mar. Activity
on 20 Mar and 27-28 Mar followed mass ejection events. Activity on 23 Mar
was associated with both CME and coronal hole activity. 


2. FORECAST (29 MARCH - 28 APRIL)
Disturbed Periods: 
30-31 Mar: Active to minor storm periods. Two shocks are expected 
           during interval 30/1400-31/1100UT. 

Note:
A very large solar region is visible near the centre of the solar disk and
further flare/CME events are expected this week. A major disturbance
is possible.  Threat of mass ejection events will most likely remain until 
the current large solar region rotates off disk, around 3 Apr.

Best Quiet Periods: 05-13 Apr 

PEASE NOTE:  
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions 
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not 
able to be forecasted a week in advance. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060