From rwc at ips.gov.au Mon Aug 1 20:39:50 2022 From: rwc at ips.gov.au (Regional Warning Centre) Date: Mon, 01 Aug 2022 10:39:50 +0000 Subject: [Ips-ssn-predictions] BOM SWS Observed and Predicted Solar Indices Message-ID: <20220801103950.65E8E16B@sws-corona.sws> OBSERVED AND PREDICTED SOLAR INDICES Prepared by Bureau of Meteorology Space Weather Services Issued on 01 August 2022 -------------------------- SMOOTHED SUNSPOT NUMBER -------------------------- Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2004 80.1 76.4 73.2 71.0 69.5 67.1 64.8 63.0 60.2 57.9 56.6 55.7 2005 54.5 53.2 52.3 49.3 45.0 44.5 44.6 41.9 39.4 38.9 38.4 36.0 2006 33.0 29.7 27.4 27.0 27.4 26.2 25.0 25.9 26.0 23.7 21.1 20.2 2007 19.8 19.0 17.7 16.4 14.4 12.8 11.6 9.9 9.6 9.9 9.2 7.9 2008 6.6 5.6 5.1 5.1 5.3 4.8 4.0 3.8 3.2 2.4 2.3 2.2 2009 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.5 4.1 5.5 7.4 9.5 10.9 11.7 12.7 2010 14.0 16.1 18.5 20.8 23.1 24.6 25.2 26.4 29.5 34.5 39.1 42.5 2011 45.7 48.8 53.8 61.1 69.3 77.2 83.6 86.3 86.6 87.4 89.4 92.5 2012 95.5 98.2 98.3 95.1 90.9 86.6 84.5 85.1 85.3 85.8 87.7 88.1 2013 86.8 86.1 84.4 84.3 87.0 90.9 94.6 99.0 104.7 107.0 106.9 107.6 2014 109.3 110.5 114.3 116.4 115.0 114.1 112.6 108.3 101.9 97.3 94.7 92.2 2015 89.3 86.1 82.2 78.9 76.1 72.1 68.3 66.4 65.9 64.3 61.2 57.8 2016 54.4 52.5 50.4 47.8 44.8 41.5 38.5 36.0 33.2 31.5 29.9 28.5 2017 27.8 26.5 25.7 24.8 23.3 22.2 21.0 19.6 18.3 16.7 15.4 15.0 2018 14.2 12.6 9.9 7.8 7.5 7.2 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.8 6.7 6.0 2019 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.6 2.0 1.8 2020 2.2 2.7 3.0 3.6 5.6 7.9 9.0 9.5 10.5 11.9 13.6 15.3 2021 17.2 19.0 21.7 24.8 25.8 27.6 31.4 35.4 40.2 45.2 50.8 55.9 2022 60.1 65.3e 69.8e 73.9e 78.8e 82.7e 86.1e 89.9e 93.0e 95.3e 96.9e 99.2e 2023 101.7e105.6 108.0 109.7 110.7 111.1 111.4 112.4 114.2 115.0 113.6 112.4 ============================================================================= --------------------- SMOOTHED 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX --------------------- Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2004 117.5 116.6 115.8 113.3 109.9 107.7 106.5 105.6 104.3 102.8 102.2 102.2 2005 101.2 99.8 99.6 98.6 96.2 94.8 93.8 92.2 90.8 90.3 89.5 87.9 2006 86.1 84.2 82.1 80.7 80.6 80.6 80.6 80.7 80.6 79.7 78.7 78.3 2007 78.0 77.4 76.5 75.7 74.8 73.6 72.7 72.0 71.8 71.7 71.4 70.8 2008 70.2 69.8 69.7 69.7 69.7 69.3 68.7 68.5 68.3 68.1 68.2 68.4 2009 68.6 68.8 68.9 69.2 69.6 70.1 70.9 72.0 73.2 74.0 74.4 74.7 2010 75.4 76.4 77.3 78.1 78.9 79.5 79.9 80.4 82.5 85.8 88.3 90.2 2011 91.9 93.5 96.7 101.3 106.5 111.7 116.1 118.7 118.8 118.5 119.6 121.8 2012 124.7 127.2 127.3 126.2 124.3 121.6 119.9 119.5 119.2 119.5 120.5 120.5 2013 119.1 118.1 117.2 116.7 118.3 121.0 124.1 128.2 132.5 134.9 135.6 136.1 2014 137.5 138.9 141.1 143.9 145.1 145.8 145.4 142.9 140.3 138.7 137.6 137.4 2015 136.4 134.3 131.6 127.6 123.6 119.9 116.4 113.9 111.4 108.4 105.8 102.7 2016 99.8 98.0 96.5 95.1 93.1 90.4 87.8 85.7 83.9 82.7 81.3 80.2 2017 79.5 78.8 78.8 78.8 78.1 77.7 77.3 76.8 76.3 75.6 75.0 74.8 2018 74.3 73.6 72.1 70.6 70.2 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.1 70.3 70.5 70.3 2019 70.0 69.8 69.7 69.6 69.6 69.7 69.7 69.8 69.7 69.5 69.3 69.3 2020 69.5 69.8 70.1 70.5 71.6 73.0 73.8 74.1 74.5 75.0 75.5 76.2 2021 77.1 77.9 78.9 80.2 80.7 81.2 83.0 85.5 88.5 92.4 97.2 101.3 2022 104.7 108.1e110.7e113.0e115.6e117.8e119.5e121.0e122.1e122.1e121.1e120.7e 2023 120.7e121.8 122.3 122.6 123.2 124.1 124.7 124.8 124.4 124.1 124.1 124.4 ============================================================================= The values in the smoothed sunspot number table are based on the observed (definitive and provisional) monthly mean sunspot numbers from WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels (sidc.oma.be/silso/home). In June 2015, WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels, adjusted their original observed sunspot numbers (Version 1.0) to a Version 2.0 series in which the sunspot numbers are higher. In the Version 1.0 data series, some of the sunspot numbers were weighted. The new (Version 2.0) sunspot numbers are unweighted sunspot number counts. The Bureau of Meteorology SWS solar cycle prediction is now based on the Version 2.0 values. The values in the smoothed 10.7 cm solar flux table are derived from daily 10.7 cm solar flux values adjusted to 1 Astronomical Unit (A.U.). The daily values are averaged to provide monthly mean values which are then smoothed. The 10.7 cm solar radio flux data are provided as a service by the National Research Council of Canada. In both tables, the observed monthly mean values are smoothed using a 13- month running filter (the values for the 1st and 13th months have half the weighting). Estimated values have an "e" suffix and are calculated from observed monthly and predicted smoothed numbers. Observed smoothed values precede the estimated values while predicted smoothed values follow the estimated values. If no estimated values are shown, all values are observed smoothed values and no prediction is shown. =============================================================================