[Ips-ssn-predictions] BOM SWS Observed and Predicted Solar Indices

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 1 22:43:39 EST 2021


                    OBSERVED AND PREDICTED SOLAR INDICES                     
                                                                             
          Prepared by Bureau of Meteorology Space Weather Services           
                                                                             
                          Issued on 01 January 2021                          
                                                                             
-------------------------- SMOOTHED SUNSPOT NUMBER --------------------------
Year   Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2002 177.6 179.7 178.2 174.4 171.3 166.9 161.5 155.4 149.5 143.9 136.0 131.4 
2003 129.6 125.7 118.7 111.9 107.0 101.7  96.0  92.9  91.8  89.1  86.9  84.1 
2004  80.1  76.4  73.2  71.0  69.5  67.1  64.8  63.0  60.2  57.9  56.6  55.7 
2005  54.5  53.2  52.3  49.3  45.0  44.5  44.6  41.9  39.4  38.9  38.4  36.0 
2006  33.0  29.7  27.4  27.0  27.4  26.2  25.0  25.9  26.0  23.7  21.1  20.2 
2007  19.8  19.0  17.7  16.4  14.4  12.8  11.6   9.9   9.6   9.9   9.2   7.9 
2008   6.6   5.6   5.1   5.1   5.3   4.8   4.0   3.8   3.2   2.4   2.3   2.2 
2009   2.5   2.7   2.9   3.3   3.5   4.1   5.5   7.4   9.5  10.9  11.7  12.7 
2010  14.0  16.1  18.5  20.8  23.1  24.6  25.2  26.4  29.5  34.5  39.1  42.5 
2011  45.7  48.8  53.8  61.1  69.3  77.2  83.6  86.3  86.6  87.4  89.4  92.5 
2012  95.5  98.2  98.3  95.1  90.9  86.6  84.5  85.1  85.3  85.8  87.7  88.1 
2013  86.8  86.1  84.4  84.3  87.0  90.9  94.6  99.0 104.7 107.0 106.9 107.6 
2014 109.3 110.5 114.3 116.4 115.0 114.1 112.6 108.3 101.9  97.3  94.7  92.2 
2015  89.3  86.1  82.2  78.9  76.1  72.1  68.3  66.4  65.9  64.3  61.2  57.8 
2016  54.4  52.5  50.4  47.8  44.8  41.5  38.5  36.0  33.2  31.5  29.9  28.5 
2017  27.8  26.5  25.7  24.8  23.3  22.2  21.0  19.6  18.3  16.7  15.4  15.0 
2018  14.2  12.6   9.9   7.8   7.5   7.2   7.0   6.7   6.5   6.8   6.7   6.0 
2019   5.4   5.0   4.5   4.3   3.9   3.7   3.5   3.4   3.1   2.6   2.0   1.8 
2020   2.2   2.7   3.0   3.6   5.6   7.8   9.3e 11.0e 13.2e 15.6e 18.3e 21.3e
2021  24.5e 28.1e 32.3e 36.7e 40.0e 43.4e 46.7  52.4  57.6  61.8  66.6  71.9 
2022  76.4  79.9  83.0  85.9  89.1  92.3  94.9  97.7 101.3 104.2 106.6 109.3 
2023 111.3 111.9 111.7 111.5 112.2 114.2 115.0 113.6 112.3 111.6 110.2 109.2 
=============================================================================
                                                                             
--------------------- SMOOTHED 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX ---------------------
Year   Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2002 195.7 198.3 196.6 192.4 188.8 183.6 176.8 170.2 164.9 160.0 154.8 151.7 
2003 148.9 144.1 138.8 135.7 134.4 131.8 128.9 127.0 125.5 123.8 121.9 119.4 
2004 117.5 116.6 115.8 113.3 109.9 107.7 106.5 105.6 104.3 102.8 102.2 102.2 
2005 101.2  99.8  99.6  98.6  96.2  94.8  93.8  92.2  90.8  90.3  89.5  87.9 
2006  86.1  84.2  82.1  80.7  80.6  80.6  80.6  80.7  80.6  79.7  78.7  78.3 
2007  78.0  77.4  76.5  75.7  74.8  73.6  72.7  72.0  71.8  71.7  71.4  70.8 
2008  70.2  69.8  69.7  69.7  69.7  69.3  68.7  68.5  68.3  68.1  68.2  68.4 
2009  68.6  68.8  68.9  69.2  69.6  70.1  70.9  72.0  73.2  74.0  74.4  74.7 
2010  75.4  76.4  77.3  78.1  78.9  79.5  79.9  80.4  82.5  85.8  88.3  90.2 
2011  91.9  93.5  96.7 101.3 106.5 111.7 116.1 118.7 118.8 118.5 119.6 121.8 
2012 124.7 127.2 127.3 126.2 124.3 121.6 119.9 119.5 119.2 119.5 120.5 120.5 
2013 119.1 118.1 117.2 116.7 118.3 121.0 124.1 128.2 132.5 134.9 135.6 136.1 
2014 137.5 138.9 141.1 143.9 145.1 145.8 145.4 142.9 140.3 138.7 137.6 137.4 
2015 136.4 134.3 131.6 127.6 123.6 119.9 116.4 113.9 111.4 108.4 105.8 102.7 
2016  99.8  98.0  96.5  95.1  93.1  90.4  87.8  85.7  83.9  82.7  81.3  80.2 
2017  79.5  78.8  78.8  78.8  78.1  77.7  77.3  76.8  76.3  75.6  75.0  74.8 
2018  74.3  73.6  72.1  70.6  70.2  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.1  70.3  70.5  70.3 
2019  70.0  69.8  69.7  69.6  69.6  69.7  69.7  69.8  69.7  69.5  69.3  69.3 
2020  69.5  69.8  70.1  70.5  71.6  73.0  74.3e 75.6e 77.1e 78.7e 80.6e 82.6e
2021  84.7e 87.0e 89.5e 92.2e 94.5e 96.6e 98.8 100.7 103.7 107.1 109.9 112.3 
2022 114.4 116.1 116.8 117.8 119.8 122.1 123.8 124.5 124.8 124.3 123.6 123.3 
2023 123.9 124.9 125.2 124.9 124.4 123.7 123.2 123.5 124.3 125.8 127.5 129.2 
=============================================================================
                                                                             
The values in the smoothed sunspot number table are based on the observed    
(definitive and provisional) monthly mean sunspot numbers from WDC-SILSO,    
Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels (sidc.oma.be/silso/home).             
                                                                             
In June 2015, WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels, adjusted    
their original observed sunspot numbers (Version 1.0) to a Version 2.0       
series in which the sunspot numbers are higher. In the Version 1.0 data      
series, some of the sunspot numbers were weighted. The new (Version 2.0)     
sunspot numbers are unweighted sunspot number counts. The Bureau of          
Meteorology SWS solar cycle prediction is now based on the Version 2.0       
values.                                                                      
                                                                             
The values in the smoothed 10.7 cm solar flux table are derived from daily   
10.7 cm solar flux values adjusted to 1 Astronomical Unit (A.U.). The daily  
values are averaged to provide monthly mean values which are then smoothed.  
The 10.7 cm solar radio flux data are provided as a service by the National  
Research Council of Canada.                                                  
                                                                             
In both tables, the observed monthly mean values are smoothed using a 13-    
month running filter (the values for the 1st and 13th months have half the   
weighting). Estimated values have an "e" suffix and are calculated from      
observed monthly and predicted smoothed numbers. Observed smoothed values    
precede the estimated values while predicted smoothed values follow the      
estimated values. If no estimated values are shown, all values are observed  
smoothed values and no prediction is shown.                                  
=============================================================================



More information about the ips-ssn-predictions mailing list