[Ips-ssn-predictions] BOM SWS Observed and Predicted Solar Indices [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 1 22:37:08 EST 2016


                    OBSERVED AND PREDICTED SOLAR INDICES                     
                                                                             
          Prepared by Bureau of Meteorology Space Weather Services           
                                                                             
                         Issued on 01 December 2016                          
                                                                             
-------------------------- SMOOTHED SUNSPOT NUMBER --------------------------
Year   Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 166.1 170.6 174.3 175.2 172.9 172.7 174.2 172.8 168.8 165.3 163.1 162.7 
2001 158.3 152.5 155.1 160.7 163.7 167.4 172.0 175.8 177.1 177.3 180.3 179.1 
2002 177.6 179.7 178.2 174.4 171.3 166.9 161.5 155.4 149.5 143.9 136.0 131.4 
2003 129.6 125.7 118.7 111.9 107.0 101.7  96.0  92.9  91.8  89.1  86.9  84.1 
2004  80.1  76.4  73.2  71.0  69.5  67.1  64.8  63.0  60.2  57.9  56.6  55.7 
2005  54.5  53.2  52.3  49.3  45.0  44.5  44.6  41.9  39.4  38.9  38.4  36.0 
2006  33.0  29.7  27.4  27.0  27.4  26.2  25.0  25.9  26.0  23.7  21.1  20.2 
2007  19.8  19.0  17.7  16.4  14.4  12.8  11.6   9.9   9.6   9.9   9.2   7.9 
2008   6.6   5.6   5.1   5.1   5.3   4.8   4.0   3.8   3.2   2.4   2.3   2.2 
2009   2.5   2.7   2.9   3.3   3.5   4.1   5.5   7.4   9.5  10.9  11.7  12.7 
2010  14.0  16.1  18.5  20.8  23.1  24.6  25.2  26.4  29.5  34.5  39.1  42.5 
2011  45.7  48.8  53.8  61.1  69.3  77.2  83.6  86.3  86.6  87.4  89.4  92.5 
2012  95.5  98.2  98.3  95.1  90.9  86.6  84.5  85.1  85.3  85.8  87.7  88.1 
2013  86.8  86.1  84.4  84.3  87.0  90.9  94.6  99.0 104.7 107.0 106.9 107.6 
2014 109.3 110.5 114.3 116.4 115.0 114.1 112.6 108.3 101.9  97.3  94.7  92.2 
2015  89.3  86.1  82.2  78.9  76.1  72.1  68.3  66.4  65.9  64.3  61.2  57.8 
2016  54.4  52.5  50.5  47.8  44.9  42.2e 40.3e 38.4e 36.6e 35.5e 34.4e 33.9e
2017  34.2e 33.0e 31.3e 30.2e 30.0e 29.8  28.5  27.5  26.5  25.8  25.1  24.2 
2018  23.4  22.5  21.7  21.0  20.5  19.6  18.9  18.1  16.9  15.9  15.3  15.0 
=============================================================================
                                                                             
-------------------- EQUIVALENT 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX --------------------
Year   Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 214.9 219.0 222.3 223.1 221.0 220.9 222.2 220.9 217.3 214.1 212.1 211.7 
2001 207.6 202.0 204.5 209.8 212.6 216.1 220.2 223.6 224.7 224.9 227.5 226.5 
2002 225.2 227.0 225.7 222.4 219.6 215.6 210.6 204.8 199.1 193.6 185.6 181.0 
2003 179.2 175.2 168.0 161.1 156.0 150.6 144.8 141.7 140.6 137.9 135.7 133.0 
2004 129.0 125.4 122.4 120.3 118.9 116.6 114.5 112.8 110.3 108.2 107.1 106.3 
2005 105.2 104.1 103.3 100.7  97.1  96.7  96.8  94.6  92.6  92.2  91.8  90.0 
2006  87.7  85.2  83.6  83.3  83.6  82.7  81.9  82.5  82.6  81.0  79.2  78.6 
2007  78.4  77.8  77.0  76.2  74.9  74.0  73.3  72.3  72.1  72.3  71.9  71.1 
2008  70.4  69.9  69.6  69.6  69.7  69.4  69.0  68.9  68.6  68.2  68.1  68.1 
2009  68.2  68.3  68.5  68.7  68.8  69.1  69.8  70.9  72.0  72.8  73.3  73.9 
2010  74.7  76.0  77.5  79.0  80.6  81.6  82.0  82.9  85.1  88.8  92.4  95.1 
2011  97.7 100.3 104.6 111.1 118.7 126.2 132.5 135.1 135.4 136.2 138.2 141.3 
2012 144.3 147.1 147.2 143.9 139.7 135.4 133.4 133.9 134.1 134.6 136.5 136.9 
2013 135.6 134.9 133.3 133.2 135.8 139.7 143.4 147.9 153.7 156.0 155.9 156.7 
2014 158.4 159.6 163.5 165.7 164.2 163.3 161.8 157.4 150.8 146.2 143.5 141.0 
2015 138.1 134.9 131.1 127.9 125.2 121.3 117.7 116.0 115.5 114.0 111.2 108.1 
2016 105.1 103.5 101.8  99.5  97.1  94.9e 93.3e 91.8e 90.4e 89.6e 88.7e 88.4e
2017  88.6e 87.7e 86.4e 85.6e 85.4e 85.3  84.4  83.6  82.9  82.4  82.0  81.3 
2018  80.8  80.2  79.6  79.2  78.8  78.2  77.8  77.3  76.5  75.9  75.5  75.3 
=============================================================================
                                                                             
These tables are based on the observed (definitive and provisional) monthly  
mean sunspot numbers from WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels  
(sidc.oma.be/silso/home). The observed values are smoothed using a 13 month  
running filter (the first and last values have half weighting). Estimated    
values have an "e" suffix and are calculated from observed monthly and       
predicted smoothed sunspot numbers. Observed smoothed values precede the     
estimated values while predicted smoothed values follow the estimated values.
                                                                             
The 10.7 cm solar radio flux values, including the "observed" values, are    
obtained from sunspot numbers using a statistical conversion. They are       
therefore described as "equivalent" solar radio flux values.                 
                                                                             
SPECIAL NOTE                                                                 
In June 2015, WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels, adjusted    
their original observed sunspot numbers (Version 1.0) to a Version 2.0 series
in which the sunspot numbers are higher. In the Version 1.0 data series, some
of the sunspot numbers were weighted. The new (Version 2.0) sunspot numbers  
are unweighted sunspot number counts (for more information see:              
www.sidc.be/silso/home). The Bureau of Meteorology SWS solar cycle prediction
is now based on the Version 2.0 values. As a result of the WDC-SILSO         
recalibration, the observed monthly sunspot numbers are higher. This is also 
reflected in the tables of smoothed sunspot numbers and equivalent 10.7 cm   
solar flux and the solar cycle graph.                                        
=============================================================================


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