From rwc at ips.gov.au Sun Nov 1 21:58:37 2015 From: rwc at ips.gov.au (Regional Warning Centre) Date: Sun, 01 Nov 2015 21:58:37 +1100 Subject: [Ips-ssn-predictions] IPS Observed and Predicted Solar Indices Message-ID: <20151101105837.3269C60480@sws-sputnik.bom.gov.au> IPS OBSERVED AND PREDICTED SOLAR INDICES FOR CYCLE 24 Prepared by IPS Radio and Space Services Issued on Nov 01 2015 ------------------------ SMOOTHED SUNSPOT NUMBER --------------------------- Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 113.0 116.9 120.0 120.9 119.0 118.8 119.8 118.7 116.3 114.5 112.7 112.1 2001 108.7 104.0 104.8 107.5 108.6 109.8 111.7 113.6 114.1 114.0 115.5 114.6 2002 113.5 114.6 113.3 110.5 108.8 106.2 102.7 98.7 94.6 90.5 85.3 82.1 2003 81.0 78.6 74.2 70.4 67.9 65.3 62.1 60.3 59.8 58.4 57.0 55.0 2004 52.1 49.4 47.2 45.6 43.9 41.7 40.2 39.3 37.6 35.9 35.4 35.2 2005 34.6 34.0 33.6 31.7 28.9 28.8 29.1 27.5 25.9 25.6 25.0 23.0 2006 20.8 18.7 17.4 17.1 17.4 16.4 15.3 15.6 15.6 14.2 12.7 12.1 2007 12.0 11.6 10.8 9.9 8.7 7.7 7.0 6.1 5.9 6.1 5.7 5.0 2008 4.2 3.6 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.2 2.7 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.7 2009 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.7 3.6 4.8 6.1 7.0 7.5 8.2 2010 9.2 10.6 12.3 13.9 15.4 16.3 16.7 17.4 19.6 23.2 26.5 28.9 2011 31.0 33.5 36.9 41.8 47.6 53.2 57.3 59.1 59.6 59.9 61.1 63.4 2012 65.5 66.9 66.8 64.6 61.7 58.9 57.8 58.2 58.1 58.6 59.7 59.6 2013 58.7 58.4 57.5 57.8 59.8 62.6 65.4 68.9 73.1 75.0 75.4 76.0 2014 77.4 78.4 80.9 82.0 80.6 79.8 78.7 75.6 71.0 67.5 65.5 64.7 2015 64.3 63.7 62.9 62.5 62.3e 61.5e 60.6e 61.1e 62.7e 63.7e 63.7e 63.0e 2016 61.8e 60.6e 58.7e 56.9e 55.5 53.8 52.0 50.3 48.9 47.3 45.8 44.6 2017 43.0 41.5 40.3 39.1 37.6 36.4 35.2 34.0 33.2 32.6 31.9 30.7 2018 29.5 28.5 27.4 26.2 25.1 23.9 22.6 21.4 20.6 19.9 19.2 18.5 2019 17.8 17.4 17.0 16.7 16.4 16.1 15.6 14.8 14.1 13.4 12.9 12.5 ============================================================================ ----------------- EQUIVALENT 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX --------------------- Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 162.2 166.2 169.4 170.3 168.3 168.1 169.2 168.0 165.6 163.7 161.9 161.2 2001 157.8 153.0 153.7 156.6 157.7 158.9 160.8 162.8 163.3 163.2 164.8 163.9 2002 162.7 163.9 162.5 159.6 157.9 155.2 151.6 147.6 143.4 139.3 134.1 131.0 2003 129.9 127.6 123.4 119.7 117.4 114.9 112.0 110.4 109.9 108.7 107.4 105.6 2004 103.2 100.8 98.9 97.6 96.2 94.4 93.3 92.5 91.2 89.9 89.5 89.4 2005 88.9 88.4 88.1 86.7 84.7 84.6 84.8 83.6 82.5 82.3 81.9 80.5 2006 79.0 77.6 76.8 76.7 76.8 76.2 75.5 75.7 75.7 74.8 73.9 73.6 2007 73.5 73.3 72.8 72.3 71.6 71.0 70.6 70.1 70.1 70.1 69.9 69.5 2008 69.1 68.8 68.6 68.7 68.7 68.6 68.4 68.3 68.1 67.9 67.9 67.8 2009 67.9 67.9 68.0 68.1 68.1 68.4 68.8 69.4 70.2 70.6 70.9 71.3 2010 71.9 72.7 73.6 74.6 75.6 76.1 76.4 76.8 78.2 80.7 82.9 84.6 2011 86.2 88.0 90.7 94.6 99.3 104.1 107.7 109.3 109.7 110.1 111.1 113.2 2012 115.1 116.5 116.3 114.4 111.7 109.1 108.1 108.5 108.4 108.8 109.8 109.7 2013 108.9 108.7 107.9 108.2 110.0 112.5 115.1 118.3 122.3 124.1 124.5 125.1 2014 126.4 127.4 129.8 130.9 129.5 128.7 127.6 124.7 120.2 117.0 115.1 114.4 2015 114.1 113.5 112.7 112.4 112.2e111.5e110.7e111.1e112.5e113.5e113.5e112.8e 2016 111.7e110.6e109.0e107.4e106.1 104.6 103.1 101.6 100.4 99.1 97.8 96.8 2017 95.5 94.3 93.3 92.4 91.2 90.3 89.3 88.4 87.8 87.4 86.8 86.0 2018 85.1 84.4 83.6 82.7 82.0 81.1 80.2 79.4 78.9 78.4 78.0 77.5 2019 77.1 76.8 76.6 76.4 76.2 76.0 75.7 75.2 74.8 74.3 74.0 73.8 ============================================================================ This page is updated monthly using observed monthly sunspot numbers from the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (http://sidc.oma.be). Monthly values are smoothed using a 13 monthly running filter (first and last half weighting) and, where needed, combined with a predicted sunspot number curve for Cycle 24. Values which have an "e" next to them are based partly on observed and partly on predicted values. Values earlier in time to these are based entirely on observed values; values later in time are entirely predicted. Observed data are adjusted slightly at times to use the SIDC final monthly values which are available several months later - SIDC preliminary monthly values are used up to this time. All Solar Radio Flux values, including the "observed" values, are obtained from sunspot numbers using a statistical conversion. They are best described as equivalent solar flux values. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------