[Ips-ssn-predictions] ISES Observed and Predicted Solar Indices

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 1 20:04:10 EST 2013


                  IPS OBSERVED AND PREDICTED SOLAR INDICES FOR CYCLE 24

                  Prepared by IPS Radio and Space Services

                         Issued on Jul 01  2013

------------------------ SMOOTHED SUNSPOT NUMBER ---------------------------
Year   Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 113.0 116.9 120.0 120.9 119.0 118.8 119.8 118.7 116.3 114.5 112.7 112.1 
2001 108.7 104.0 104.8 107.5 108.6 109.8 111.7 113.6 114.1 114.0 115.5 114.6 
2002 113.5 114.6 113.3 110.5 108.8 106.2 102.7  98.7  94.6  90.5  85.3  82.1 
2003  81.0  78.6  74.2  70.4  67.9  65.3  62.1  60.3  59.8  58.4  57.0  55.0 
2004  52.1  49.4  47.2  45.6  43.9  41.7  40.2  39.3  37.6  35.9  35.4  35.2 
2005  34.6  34.0  33.6  31.7  28.9  28.8  29.1  27.5  25.9  25.6  25.0  23.0 
2006  20.8  18.7  17.4  17.1  17.4  16.4  15.3  15.6  15.6  14.2  12.7  12.1 
2007  12.0  11.6  10.8   9.9   8.7   7.7   7.0   6.1   5.9   6.1   5.7   5.0 
2008   4.2   3.6   3.3   3.3   3.5   3.2   2.7   2.6   2.2   1.8   1.7   1.7 
2009   1.8   1.9   2.0   2.2   2.3   2.7   3.6   4.8   6.1   7.0   7.5   8.2 
2010   9.2  10.6  12.3  13.9  15.4  16.3  16.7  17.4  19.6  23.2  26.5  28.9 
2011  31.0  33.5  36.9  41.8  47.6  53.2  57.3  59.1  59.6  59.9  61.1  63.4 
2012  65.5  66.9  66.8  64.6  61.7  58.9  57.8  58.2  58.1  58.6  59.7  59.6 
2013  58.3e 56.9e 55.6e 54.5e 53.3e 52.5e 51.5e 50.4e 49.4e 46.8e 43.3e 40.5e
2014  39.0  36.7  35.1  33.7  32.8  32.0  31.4  30.8  30.6  30.5  30.0  29.5 
2015  28.6  27.3  26.1  24.8  23.8  22.7  21.3  20.0  18.8  17.9  17.1  16.5 
2016  16.1  15.7  15.5  15.5  15.3  15.0  14.7  14.2  13.7  13.2  12.5  11.7 
2017  11.0  10.3   9.8   9.4   9.1   8.9   8.9   8.8   8.3   8.0   7.8   7.6 
2018   7.4   7.2   7.0   6.8   6.6   6.0   5.8   5.6   5.4   5.2   5.0   4.8 
2019   4.6   4.4   3.9   3.5   3.4   3.3   3.1   2.8   2.1   1.9   1.8   1.7 
============================================================================

-----------------  EQUIVALENT 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX ---------------------
Year   Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 162.2 166.2 169.4 170.3 168.3 168.1 169.2 168.0 165.6 163.7 161.9 161.2 
2001 157.8 153.0 153.7 156.6 157.7 158.9 160.8 162.8 163.3 163.2 164.8 163.9 
2002 162.7 163.9 162.5 159.6 157.9 155.2 151.6 147.6 143.4 139.3 134.1 131.0 
2003 129.9 127.6 123.4 119.7 117.4 114.9 112.0 110.4 109.9 108.7 107.4 105.6 
2004 103.2 100.8  98.9  97.6  96.2  94.4  93.3  92.5  91.2  89.9  89.5  89.4 
2005  88.9  88.4  88.1  86.7  84.7  84.6  84.8  83.6  82.5  82.3  81.9  80.5 
2006  79.0  77.6  76.8  76.7  76.8  76.2  75.5  75.7  75.7  74.8  73.9  73.6 
2007  73.5  73.3  72.8  72.3  71.6  71.0  70.6  70.1  70.1  70.1  69.9  69.5 
2008  69.1  68.8  68.6  68.7  68.7  68.6  68.4  68.3  68.1  67.9  67.9  67.8 
2009  67.9  67.9  68.0  68.1  68.1  68.4  68.8  69.4  70.2  70.6  70.9  71.3 
2010  71.9  72.7  73.6  74.6  75.6  76.1  76.4  76.8  78.2  80.7  82.9  84.6 
2011  86.2  88.0  90.7  94.6  99.3 104.1 107.7 109.3 109.7 110.1 111.1 113.2 
2012 115.1 116.5 116.3 114.4 111.7 109.1 108.1 108.5 108.4 108.8 109.8 109.7 
2013 108.6e107.4e106.2e105.3e104.2e103.5e102.6e101.7e100.8e 98.7e 95.7e 93.5e
2014  92.3  90.5  89.3  88.2  87.5  86.9  86.5  86.0  85.9  85.8  85.4  85.1 
2015  84.4  83.5  82.7  81.7  81.1  80.3  79.4  78.5  77.7  77.1  76.6  76.2 
2016  76.0  75.7  75.6  75.6  75.5  75.3  75.1  74.8  74.5  74.2  73.8  73.3 
2017  72.9  72.5  72.2  72.0  71.8  71.7  71.7  71.6  71.4  71.2  71.1  71.0 
2018  70.9  70.7  70.6  70.5  70.4  70.1  70.0  69.9  69.8  69.7  69.6  69.4 
2019  69.3  69.2  69.0  68.8  68.7  68.7  68.6  68.4  68.0  67.9  67.9  67.8 
============================================================================
This page is updated monthly using observed monthly sunspot numbers from
the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (http://sidc.oma.be).  Monthly
values are smoothed using a 13 monthly running filter (first and last half weighting)
and, where needed, combined with a predicted sunspot number curve for Cycle 24.
Values which have an "e" next to them are based partly on observed and partly on
predicted values.  Values earlier in time to these are based entirely on
observed values; values later in time are entirely predicted.  Observed
data are adjusted slightly at times to use the SIDC final monthly values
which are available several months later - SIDC preliminary monthly values
are used up to this time.
 
All Solar Radio Flux values, including the "observed" values, are
obtained from sunspot numbers using a statistical conversion.  They are
best described as equivalent solar flux values.
 
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