[Ips-ssn-predictions] ISES Observed and Predicted Solar Indices

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 22 14:47:59 EST 2009


                  IPS OBSERVED AND PREDICTED SOLAR INDICES FOR CYCLE 24

        IPS has made a significant change to its forecast for solar cycle 24. 
	The forecast cycle maximum smoothed sunspot number has been dropped from 134 
	to approximately 90. In addition the time of maximum has been shifted away 
	by one year to September/October 2013. These changes were made due to the 
	protracted solar minimum currently being experienced, and the apparent 
	statistical relationship between long solar minimums and lower following 
	solar cycles maxima.

                  Prepared by IPS Radio and Space Services

                         Issued on Jul 22  2009

------------------------ SMOOTHED SUNSPOT NUMBER ---------------------------
Year   Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 113.0 116.9 120.0 120.9 119.0 118.8 119.8 118.7 116.3 114.5 112.7 112.1 
2001 108.7 104.0 104.8 107.5 108.6 109.8 111.7 113.6 114.1 114.0 115.5 114.6 
2002 113.5 114.6 113.3 110.5 108.8 106.2 102.7  98.7  94.6  90.5  85.3  82.1 
2003  81.0  78.6  74.2  70.4  67.9  65.3  62.1  60.3  59.8  58.4  57.0  55.0 
2004  52.1  49.4  47.2  45.6  43.9  41.7  40.2  39.3  37.6  35.9  35.4  35.2 
2005  34.6  34.0  33.6  31.7  28.9  28.8  29.1  27.5  25.9  25.6  25.0  23.0 
2006  20.8  18.7  17.4  17.1  17.4  16.4  15.3  15.6  15.6  14.2  12.7  12.1 
2007  12.0  11.6  10.8   9.9   8.7   7.7   7.0   6.1   5.9   6.1   5.7   5.0 
2008   4.2   3.6   3.3   3.3   3.5   3.2   2.7   2.6   2.2   1.8   1.7   1.7 
2009   1.8e  2.0e  2.2e  2.3e  2.2e  2.3e  2.4e  2.5e  2.7e  2.9e  3.0e  3.2e
2010   3.4   3.0   3.0   3.4   4.0   4.8   5.7   6.8   7.4   9.1  10.3  11.7 
2011  13.5  15.1  16.9  19.8  23.1  26.7  29.6  32.7  36.0  39.8  43.2  46.1 
2012  48.8  52.9  57.3  61.2  63.4  65.7  67.9  70.5  73.1  75.4  78.1  80.5 
2013  82.0  84.0  85.2  85.7  86.6  87.7  88.3  89.7  90.2  90.2  89.7  88.3 
2014  88.0  87.1  87.1  86.8  86.8  87.1  87.1  86.6  86.6  85.7  83.8  81.7 
2015  79.9  78.1  76.0  73.7  72.2  70.8  69.7  68.5  67.1  65.3  63.2  59.8 
2016  56.4  53.2  51.1  49.2  47.5  45.9  44.2  42.3  40.3  38.7  37.5  37.0 
2017  36.4  35.6  34.4  32.9  31.1  29.2  27.7  26.4  25.1  23.7  22.1  20.7 
2018  19.6  18.7  17.8  17.0  16.0  15.3  14.6  14.1  13.8  13.4  12.9  12.2 
2019  11.6  11.3  11.1  10.7  10.0   9.5   9.4   9.6   9.6   9.4   9.4   9.5 
============================================================================

-----------------  EQUIVALENT 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX ---------------------
Year   Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 162.2 166.2 169.4 170.3 168.3 168.1 169.2 168.0 165.6 163.7 161.9 161.2 
2001 157.8 153.0 153.7 156.6 157.7 158.9 160.8 162.8 163.3 163.2 164.8 163.9 
2002 162.7 163.9 162.5 159.6 157.9 155.2 151.6 147.6 143.4 139.3 134.1 131.0 
2003 129.9 127.6 123.4 119.7 117.4 114.9 112.0 110.4 109.9 108.7 107.4 105.6 
2004 103.2 100.8  98.9  97.6  96.2  94.4  93.3  92.5  91.2  89.9  89.5  89.4 
2005  88.9  88.4  88.1  86.7  84.7  84.6  84.8  83.6  82.5  82.3  81.9  80.5 
2006  79.0  77.6  76.8  76.7  76.8  76.2  75.5  75.7  75.7  74.8  73.9  73.6 
2007  73.5  73.3  72.8  72.3  71.6  71.0  70.6  70.1  70.1  70.1  69.9  69.5 
2008  69.1  68.8  68.6  68.7  68.7  68.6  68.4  68.3  68.1  67.9  67.9  67.8 
2009  67.9e 68.0e 68.1e 68.1e 68.1e 68.1e 68.2e 68.3e 68.4e 68.5e 68.5e 68.6e
2010  68.7  68.5  68.5  68.7  69.0  69.4  69.9  70.5  70.9  71.8  72.5  73.3 
2011  74.4  75.4  76.5  78.4  80.6  83.1  85.2  87.4  90.0  92.9  95.7  98.1 
2012 100.3 103.8 107.7 111.2 113.2 115.3 117.4 119.8 122.3 124.5 127.1 129.4 
2013 130.9 132.9 134.0 134.5 135.4 136.5 137.1 138.5 139.0 139.0 138.5 137.1 
2014 136.8 135.9 135.9 135.6 135.6 135.9 135.9 135.4 135.4 134.5 132.7 130.6 
2015 128.8 127.1 125.1 122.9 121.4 120.1 119.1 117.9 116.6 115.0 113.0 109.9 
2016 106.9 104.1 102.3 100.7  99.2  97.9  96.5  94.9  93.3  92.1  91.1  90.7 
2017  90.3  89.6  88.7  87.6  86.3  84.9  83.8  82.9  82.0  81.0  79.9  79.0 
2018  78.2  77.7  77.1  76.6  75.9  75.5  75.1  74.8  74.6  74.3  74.0  73.6 
2019  73.3  73.1  73.0  72.7  72.3  72.0  72.0  72.1  72.1  72.0  72.0  72.0 
============================================================================
This page is updated monthly using observed monthly sunspot numbers from
the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (http://sidc.oma.be).  Monthly
values are smoothed using a 13 monthly running filter (first and last half weighting)
and, where needed, combined with a predicted sunspot number curve for Cycle 24.
Values which have an "e" next to them are based partly on observed and partly on
predicted values.  Values earlier in time to these are based entirely on
observed valued; values later in time are entirely predicted.  Observed
data are adjusted slightly at times to use the SIDC final monthly values
which are available several months later - SIDC preliminary monthly values
are used up to this time.
 
All Solar Radio Flux values, including the "observed" values, are
obtained from sunspot numbers using a statistical conversion.  They are
best described as equivalent solar flux values.
 
Prepared on behalf of the International Space Environment Service by
the Australian Space Forecast Centre, IPS Radio and Space Services. This
product is issued in the first few days of each month and is available
on the IPS Mailing List Server - http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/
For more information please contact the centre at asfc at ips.gov.au
PLEASE NOTE: The technique used to make these predictions was changed
for the predictions issued from early November 2003.  The revised technique
is more appropriate to the situation of a declining solar cycle
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------



More information about the ips-ssn-predictions mailing list