[Ips-ssn-predictions] ISES Observed and Predicted Solar Indices
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 14 14:04:22 EST 2007
ISES OBSERVED AND PREDICTED SOLAR INDICES CYCLE 24
IPS has updated its solar cycle prediction software.
This email prediction is the first for solar cycle 24.
Note: Due to the lack of new cycle spots the forecast cycle
start has been changed.
FORECAST SOLAR CYCLE 24
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Cycle Sol. Min Sol. Max Max SSN Length Rise to Max Max to End
Year Mth Year Mth Yr Mth Year Mth Year Mth
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24 2008 Oct 2012 Apr 134.7 10.8 129 3.5 42 7.3 87
Description of Prediction Technique
The prediction is based on the average of the last 8 solar cycles
(Cycles 15 to 23). IPS plans to adjust this average cycle as the new cycle
unfolds. To do this IPS is developing software for manipulating this
predicted cycle. The difficulty is ensuring that adjustments are not
made for short term variation, only for longer term cycle variation.
Prepared by IPS Radio and Space Services
Issued on Nov 14 2007
------------------------ SMOOTHED SUNSPOT NUMBER ---------------------------
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
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2000 113.0 116.9 120.0 120.9 119.0 118.8 119.8 118.7 116.3 114.5 112.7 112.1
2001 108.7 104.0 104.8 107.5 108.6 109.8 111.7 113.6 114.1 114.0 115.5 114.6
2002 113.5 114.6 113.3 110.5 108.8 106.2 102.7 98.7 94.6 90.5 85.3 82.1
2003 81.0 78.6 74.2 70.4 67.9 65.3 62.1 60.3 59.8 58.4 57.0 55.0
2004 52.1 49.4 47.2 45.6 43.9 41.7 40.2 39.3 37.6 35.9 35.4 35.2
2005 34.6 34.0 33.6 31.7 28.9 28.8 29.1 27.5 25.9 25.6 25.0 23.0
2006 20.8 18.7 17.4 17.1 17.4 16.4 15.3 15.6 15.6 14.2 12.7 12.1
2007 12.0 11.6 10.8 9.9 8.8e 7.7e 6.9e 6.1e 5.8e 5.9e 5.6e 5.0e
2008 4.5e 4.2e 4.2e 4.6e 5.1 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 8.3 8.9 9.6
2009 10.7 11.9 13.4 14.7 16.3 18.1 20.2 22.6 25.2 29.6 34.5 39.8
2010 44.2 48.8 53.8 59.4 64.5 68.8 72.8 79.0 85.5 91.3 94.7 98.0
2011 101.4 105.2 109.1 112.6 116.6 120.2 122.4 125.4 127.1 127.9 129.2 130.9
2012 131.8 133.9 134.7 134.7 133.9 131.8 131.3 130.0 130.0 129.6 129.6 130.0
2013 130.0 129.2 129.2 127.9 125.0 122.0 119.3 116.6 113.5 110.0 107.7 105.7
2014 104.1 102.2 100.1 97.4 94.3 89.3 84.2 79.4 76.3 73.5 70.9 68.5
2015 66.0 63.2 60.1 57.7 56.0 55.2 54.3 53.1 51.4 49.1 46.4 43.6
2016 41.3 39.4 37.5 35.3 33.0 30.9 29.2 27.9 26.6 25.3 23.9 22.8
2017 21.8 21.1 20.6 20.0 19.3 18.2 17.3 16.8 16.5 15.9 14.9 14.2
2018 14.1 14.3 14.3 14.0 14.0 14.2 14.2 14.1 14.1 14.0 13.6 12.9
============================================================================
----------------- EQUIVALENT 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX ---------------------
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
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2000 113.0 116.9 120.0 120.9 119.0 118.8 119.8 118.7 116.3 114.5 112.7 112.1
2001 108.7 104.0 104.8 107.5 108.6 109.8 111.7 113.6 114.1 114.0 115.5 114.6
2002 113.5 114.6 113.3 110.5 108.8 106.2 102.7 98.7 94.6 90.5 85.3 82.1
2003 81.0 78.6 74.2 70.4 67.9 65.3 62.1 60.3 59.8 58.4 57.0 55.0
2004 52.1 49.4 47.2 45.6 43.9 41.7 40.2 39.3 37.6 35.9 35.4 35.2
2005 34.6 34.0 33.6 31.7 28.9 28.8 29.1 27.5 25.9 25.6 25.0 23.0
2006 20.8 18.7 17.4 17.1 17.4 16.4 15.3 15.6 15.6 14.2 12.7 12.1
2007 12.0 11.6 10.8 9.9 8.8e 7.7e 6.9e 6.1e 5.8e 5.9e 5.6e 5.0e
2008 4.5e 4.2e 4.2e 4.6e 5.1 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 8.3 8.9 9.6
2009 10.7 11.9 13.4 14.7 16.3 18.1 20.2 22.6 25.2 29.6 34.5 39.8
2010 44.2 48.8 53.8 59.4 64.5 68.8 72.8 79.0 85.5 91.3 94.7 98.0
2011 101.4 105.2 109.1 112.6 116.6 120.2 122.4 125.4 127.1 127.9 129.2 130.9
2012 131.8 133.9 134.7 134.7 133.9 131.8 131.3 130.0 130.0 129.6 129.6 130.0
2013 130.0 129.2 129.2 127.9 125.0 122.0 119.3 116.6 113.5 110.0 107.7 105.7
2014 104.1 102.2 100.1 97.4 94.3 89.3 84.2 79.4 76.3 73.5 70.9 68.5
2015 66.0 63.2 60.1 57.7 56.0 55.2 54.3 53.1 51.4 49.1 46.4 43.6
2016 41.3 39.4 37.5 35.3 33.0 30.9 29.2 27.9 26.6 25.3 23.9 22.8
2017 21.8 21.1 20.6 20.0 19.3 18.2 17.3 16.8 16.5 15.9 14.9 14.2
2018 14.1 14.3 14.3 14.0 14.0 14.2 14.2 14.1 14.1 14.0 13.6 12.9
============================================================================
This page is updated monthly using observed monthly sunspot numbers from
the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (http://sidc.oma.be). Monthly
values are smoothed using a 13 monthly running filter and, where needed,
combined with a predicted sunspot number curve for Cycle 23/24. Values
which have an "e" next to them are based partly on observed and partly on
predicted values. Values earlier in time to these are based entirely on
observed valued; values later in time are entirely predicted. Observed
data are adjusted slightly at times to use the SIDC final monthly values
which are available several months later - SIDC preliminary monthly values
are used up to this time.
All Solar Radio Flux values, including the "observed" values, are
obtained from sunspot numbers using a statistical conversion. They are
best described as equivalent solar flux values.
Prepared on behalf of the International Space Environment Service by
the Australian Space Forecast Centre, IPS Radio and Space Services. This
product is issued in the first few days of each month and is available
on the IPS Mailing List Server - http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/
For more information please contact the centre at asfc at ips.gov.au
PLEASE NOTE: The technique used to make these predictions was changed
for the predictions issued from early November 2003. The revised technique
is more appropriate to the situation of a declining solar cycle
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