[Ips-ssn-predictions] ISES Observed and Predicted Solar Indices

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 1 23:11:27 EST 2006


                  ISES OBSERVED AND PREDICTED SOLAR INDICES

                  Prepared by IPS Radio and Space Services

                         Issued on Mar 01  2006

------------------------ SMOOTHED SUNSPOT NUMBER ---------------------------
Year   Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1995  24.2  23.0  22.1  20.6  19.2  18.2  17.0  15.4  13.4  12.1  11.3  10.8 
1996  10.4  10.1   9.7   8.4   8.0   8.5   8.4   8.3   8.4   8.8   9.8  10.4 
1997  10.5  11.0  13.5  16.5  18.3  20.3  22.6  25.0  28.3  31.8  35.0  39.0 
1998  43.7  48.9  53.4  56.5  59.4  62.5  65.5  67.8  69.5  70.5  73.0  77.9 
1999  82.6  84.6  83.8  85.5  90.5  93.1  94.3  97.5 102.3 107.8 111.0 111.1 
2000 113.0 116.9 120.0 120.9 119.0 118.8 119.8 118.7 116.3 114.5 112.7 112.1 
2001 108.7 104.0 104.8 107.5 108.6 109.8 111.7 113.6 114.1 114.0 115.5 114.6 
2002 113.5 114.6 113.3 110.5 108.8 106.2 102.7  98.7  94.6  90.5  85.3  82.1 
2003  81.0  78.6  74.2  70.4  67.9  65.3  62.1  60.3  59.8  58.4  57.0  55.0 
2004  52.1  49.4  47.2  45.6  43.9  41.7  40.2  39.3  37.6  35.9  35.4  35.2 
2005  34.6  34.0  33.6  31.7  28.9  28.8  29.1  27.5  26.1e 25.4e 23.9e 21.6e
                                                      ( 1)  ( 3)  ( 4)  ( 6)
2006  19.4e 17.3e 16.0e 15.7e 15.5e 13.9e 12.3e 12.2e 12.6  11.5  10.2   9.6 
      ( 7)  ( 9)  (10)  (12)  (13)  (15)  (16)  (17)                        
2007   9.3   9.0   8.7   8.8   9.1   9.4   9.7  10.4  11.3  12.4  13.5  15.0 
2008  14.0  15.0  16.0  17.0  18.3  20.3  22.6  25.0  28.3  31.8  35.0  39.0 
2009  43.7  48.9  53.4  56.5  59.4  62.5  65.5  67.8  69.5  70.5  73.0  77.9 
============================================================================

-----------------  EQUIVALENT 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX ---------------------
Year   Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1995  81.3  80.5  79.9  78.9  78.0  77.3  76.6  75.6  74.3  73.6  73.1  72.8 
1996  72.6  72.4  72.2  71.4  71.2  71.5  71.4  71.4  71.4  71.6  72.2  72.6 
1997  72.6  72.9  74.4  76.2  77.4  78.7  80.2  81.9  84.2  86.8  89.2  92.3 
1998  96.1 100.4 104.3 107.0 109.6 112.4 115.1 117.3 118.9 119.8 122.2 126.9 
1999 131.5 133.4 132.7 134.3 139.3 141.9 143.1 146.4 151.2 156.9 160.1 160.2 
2000 162.2 166.2 169.4 170.3 168.3 168.1 169.2 168.0 165.6 163.7 161.9 161.3 
2001 157.8 153.0 153.8 156.5 157.7 158.9 160.9 162.8 163.3 163.2 164.7 163.8 
2002 162.7 163.8 162.5 159.6 157.9 155.2 151.6 147.6 143.4 139.3 134.1 131.0 
2003 129.9 127.6 123.3 119.7 117.4 115.0 112.0 110.4 109.9 108.7 107.4 105.7 
2004 103.1 100.8  99.0  97.6  96.2  94.4  93.2  92.5  91.2  89.9  89.5  89.3 
2005  88.9  88.4  88.1  86.7  84.6  84.6  84.8  83.6  82.7e 82.2e 81.1e 79.6e
                                                      ( 1)  ( 2)  ( 3)  ( 4)
2006  78.1e 76.8e 75.9e 75.7e 75.6e 74.6e 73.7e 73.6e 73.9  73.2  72.4  72.1 
      ( 5)  ( 6)  ( 6)  ( 7)  ( 8)  ( 9)  ( 9)  (10)                        
2007  71.9  71.8  71.6  71.6  71.8  72.0  72.2  72.6  73.1  73.7  74.4  75.3 
2008  74.7  75.3  75.9  76.6  77.4  78.7  80.2  81.9  84.2  86.8  89.2  92.3 
2009  96.1 100.4 104.3 107.0 109.6 112.4 115.1 117.3 118.9 119.8 122.2 126.9 
============================================================================
This page is updated monthly using observed monthly sunspot numbers from
the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (http://sidc.oma.be).  Monthly
values are smoothed using a 13 monthly running filter and, where needed,
combined with a predicted sunspot number curve for Cycle 23/24. Values
which have an "e" next to them are based partly on observed and partly on
predicted values.  Values earlier in time to these are based entirely on
observed valued; values later in time are entirely predicted.  Observed
data are adjusted slightly at times to use the SIDC final monthly values
which are available several months later - SIDC preliminary monthly values
are used up to this time.
 
All Solar Radio Flux values, including the "observed" values, are
obtained from sunspot numbers using a statistical conversion.  They are
best described as equivalent solar flux values.
 
An estimate is made of the tolerance for the prediction for those values
marked 'e' and this is given in brackets below these values.
 
Prepared on behalf of the International Space Environment Service by
the Australian Space Forecast Centre, IPS Radio and Space Services. This
product is issued in the first few days of each month and is available
on the IPS Mailing List Server - http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/
For more information please contact the centre at asfc at ips.gov.au
PLEASE NOTE: The technique used to make these predictions was changed
for the predictions issued from early November 2003.  The revised technique
is more appropriate to the situation of a declining solar cycle
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