[Ips-ssn-predictions] ISES Observed and Predicted Solar Indices

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 4 08:26:31 EST 2000


                  ISES OBSERVED AND PREDICTED SOLAR INDICES

                  Prepared by IPS Radio and Space Services

            Predictions Based on Cycle 23 Peak Sunspot Number of 140

                         Issued on Dec 04  2000

------------------------ SMOOTHED SUNSPOT NUMBER ---------------------------
Year   Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1995  24.2  23.0  22.1  20.6  19.2  18.2  17.0  15.4  13.4  12.1  11.3  10.8 
                                                                            
1996  10.4  10.1   9.7   8.4   8.0   8.5   8.4   8.3   8.4   8.8   9.8  10.4 
                                                                            
1997  10.5  11.0  13.5  16.5  18.3  20.3  22.6  25.0  28.3  31.8  35.0  39.0 
                                                                            
1998  43.7  48.9  53.4  56.5  59.4  62.5  65.5  67.8  69.5  70.5  73.0  77.9 
                                                                            
1999  82.6  84.6  83.8  85.4  90.4  93.0  94.4  97.5 102.3 107.7 110.9 111.0 
                                                                            
2000 112.8 116.6 119.8 120.7 118.9 120.1e124.4e127.6e128.7e129.3e130.5e131.7e
                                    ( 1)  ( 2)  ( 4)  ( 5)  ( 7)  ( 9)  (10)
2001 130.7e129.4e130.5e132.6e134.8e136.2 134.9 133.4 131.7 129.9 128.0 125.9 
      (12)  (13)  (15)  (17)  (18)  (19)  (19)  (19)  (18)  (18)  (18)  (17)
2002 123.7 121.4 118.9 116.4 113.8 111.1 108.3 105.5 102.6  99.6  96.7  93.7 
      (17)  (17)  (16)  (16)  (16)  (15)  (15)  (15)  (14)  (14)  (13)  (13)
2003  90.6  87.6  84.6  81.6  78.6  75.6  72.6  69.7  66.8  63.9  61.1  58.4 
      (12)  (12)  (12)  (11)  (11)  (10)  (10)  ( 9)  ( 9)  ( 9)  ( 8)  ( 8)
2004  55.7  53.1  50.5  48.0  45.6  43.2  40.9  38.7  36.6  34.6  32.6  30.7 
      ( 7)  ( 7)  ( 7)  ( 6)  ( 6)  ( 6)  ( 5)  ( 5)  ( 5)  ( 4)  ( 4)  ( 4)
2005  28.9  27.1  25.4  23.8  22.3  20.9  19.5  18.2  17.0  15.8  14.7  13.6 
      ( 4)  ( 3)  ( 3)  ( 3)  ( 3)  ( 2)  ( 2)  ( 2)  ( 2)  ( 2)  ( 2)  ( 1)
2006  12.6  11.7  10.8  10.0   9.3   8.5   7.9   7.2   6.7   6.1   5.6   5.1 
      ( 1)  ( 1)  ( 1)  ( 1)  ( 1)  ( 1)  ( 1)  ( 1)                        
2007   5.4   5.6   6.0   6.4   7.1   8.2   9.5  11.2  13.3  15.6  18.3  21.3 
                              ( 1)  ( 1)  ( 1)  ( 1)  ( 1)  ( 2)  ( 2)  ( 3)
2008  25.0  29.0  33.2  37.6  42.1  46.8  51.6  56.4  61.3  66.1  71.0  75.8 
      ( 3)  ( 4)  ( 4)  ( 5)  ( 6)  ( 6)  ( 7)  ( 8)  ( 8)  ( 9)  (10)  (10)
2009  80.6  85.2  89.8  94.2  98.5 102.6 106.5 110.3 113.8 117.2 120.3 123.2 
      (11)  (12)  (12)  (13)  (14)  (14)  (15)  (15)  (16)  (16)  (17)  (17)
============================================================================

-----------------  EQUIVALENT 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX ---------------------
Year   Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1995  81.3  80.5  79.9  78.9  78.0  77.3  76.6  75.6  74.3  73.6  73.1  72.8 
                                                                            
1996  72.6  72.4  72.2  71.4  71.2  71.5  71.4  71.4  71.4  71.6  72.2  72.6 
                                                                            
1997  72.6  72.9  74.4  76.2  77.4  78.7  80.2  81.9  84.2  86.8  89.2  92.3 
                                                                            
1998  96.1 100.4 104.3 107.0 109.6 112.4 115.1 117.3 118.9 119.8 122.2 126.9 
                                                                            
1999 131.5 133.4 132.7 134.2 139.2 141.8 143.2 146.4 151.2 156.8 160.0 160.1 
                                                                            
2000 162.0 165.9 169.2 170.1 168.2 169.5e173.9e177.1e178.3e178.9e180.1e181.3e
                                    ( 1)  ( 2)  ( 4)  ( 5)  ( 7)  ( 9)  (10)
2001 180.3e179.0e180.1e182.2e184.4e185.9 184.5 183.0 181.3 179.5 177.5 175.4 
      (12)  (13)  (15)  (17)  (18)  (19)  (19)  (19)  (18)  (18)  (18)  (17)
2002 173.1 170.8 168.2 165.7 163.0 160.2 157.4 154.5 151.5 148.5 145.6 142.5 
      (17)  (17)  (16)  (16)  (16)  (15)  (15)  (15)  (14)  (14)  (13)  (13)
2003 139.4 136.4 133.4 130.5 127.6 124.7 121.8 119.1 116.3 113.7 111.1 108.7 
      (12)  (12)  (12)  (11)  (11)  (10)  (10)  ( 8)  ( 8)  ( 8)  ( 7)  ( 7)
2004 106.3 104.0 101.8  99.6  97.6  95.7  93.8  92.1  90.4  88.9  87.4  86.0 
      ( 6)  ( 6)  ( 6)  ( 5)  ( 5)  ( 5)  ( 4)  ( 4)  ( 4)  ( 3)  ( 3)  ( 3)
2005  84.6  83.4  82.2  81.1  80.0  79.1  78.2  77.3  76.6  75.8  75.1  74.5 
      ( 3)  ( 2)  ( 2)  ( 2)  ( 2)  ( 1)  ( 1)  ( 1)  ( 1)  ( 1)  ( 1)  ( 1)
2006  73.9  73.3  72.8  72.3  71.9  71.5  71.1  70.7  70.5  70.1  69.9  69.6 
      ( 1)  ( 1)  ( 1)  ( 1)  ( 1)  ( 1)  ( 1)  ( 1)                        
2007  69.8  69.9  70.1  70.3  70.7  71.3  72.0  73.0  74.3  75.7  77.4  79.4 
                              ( 1)  ( 1)  ( 1)  ( 1)  ( 1)  ( 1)  ( 1)  ( 2)
2008  81.9  84.7  87.8  91.2  94.8  98.6 102.7 106.9 111.3 115.7 120.3 124.9 
      ( 2)  ( 3)  ( 3)  ( 4)  ( 5)  ( 5)  ( 6)  ( 7)  ( 7)  ( 8)  ( 9)  (10)
2009 129.5 134.0 138.6 143.0 147.4 151.5 155.5 159.4 163.0 166.5 169.7 172.6 
      (11)  (12)  (12)  (13)  (14)  (14)  (15)  (15)  (16)  (16)  (17)  (17)
============================================================================
This page is updated monthly using observed monthly sunspot numbers from
the Sunspot Index Data Center (http://www.oma.be/KSB-ORB/SIDC/).  Monthly
values are smoothed using a 13 monthly running filter and, where needed,
combined with a predicted sunspot number curve for Cycle 23/24. Values
which have an "e" next to them are based partly on observed and partly on
predicted values.  Values earlier in time to these are based entirely on
observed valued; values later in time are entirely predicted.  Observed
data are adjusted slightly at times to use the SIDC final monthly values
which are available several months later - SIDC preliminary monthly values
are used up to this time.
 
All Solar Radio Flux values, including the "observed" values, are
obtained from sunspot numbers using a statistical conversion.  They are
best described as equivalent solar flux values.
 
Where appropriate, an estimate is made of the tolerance for the prediction
and this is given in brackets below each estimated and predicted value.
The tolerance values are based on the uncertainty in the amplitude of the
cycle and are most reasonable for the interval up to, and just beyond,
solar maximum; for later values the errors in the predictions are
dominated by variations in the timing of the cycle.
 
Prepared on behalf of the International Space Environment Service by
the Australian Space Forecast Centre, IPS Radio and Space Services. This
product is issued in the first few days of each month and is available
on the IPS Mailing List Server - http://www.ips.gov.au/mail-lists/
For more information please contact the centre at asfc at ips.gov.au
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