[ips-sf] ASWFC Summary Forecast for 12 May - issued 0624UT/12-May-2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

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A moderate shock has been observed in the solar wind at 12/0549UT.
Post shock arrival solar wind parameters are currently not as enhanced
as expected, with the Bz IMF exhibiting a northward orientation which
reduces the degree of any induced geomagnetic activity. The Bz
orientation may change as the CME continues to pass over the Earth's
magnetosphere during the remainder of 12 May. Solar activity on UT day
12-May is expected to be at the R1 level, with a chance of an isolated
R2 event. The recent ASWAS S1 solar proton event has ended. The solar
wind is expected to be initially moderate increasing to strong due to
the anticipated arrival of a CME early in the UT day on 12-May. ASWAS
G2 geomagnetic conditions, with the chance of G3 periods, are expected
on 12-May. Degraded HF conditions are expected during local night
hours on 12-May with depressed conditions particularly for the
southern Australian region expected late in the UT day 12-May/early
13-May. Isolated fadeouts possible.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au