[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 03 January - issued 2349UT/02-Jan-2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 3 10:49:51 EST 2016

Solar activity was at moderate levels over the last 24 hours. Region
2473(S21W89) produced a long duration M2.3 flare that peaked at 0011/2
January. The flare was associated with a narrow cone and relatively
faster CME with speed over 1500 km/s. The location and the angular
width of the CME indicates less likelihood of the CME hitting the
earth, but a glancing blow in the second half of the UT day 3 January
can not be ruled out. Solar wind speed stayed between 420 and 460 km/s
during most parts of the UT day today whereas the Bz component of the
IMF showed variations between +/-4 nT during most parts of the day.
Low levels of solar activity may be expected on 3 January with some
possibility of M-class activity on this day. Geomagnetic activity
stayed at quiet to unsettled levels on 2 January. A possible glancing
blow from the above mentioned CME may raise the geomagnetic activity
to minor storm levels during the second half of the UT day 3 January
and first half of 4 January. If the CME does prove to be geoeffective,
aurora sightings may be possible. In case the CME does not hit the
earth, mostly quiet to unsettled conditions may be expected from 3 to
4 January. MUFs stayed mostly close to the monthly predicted values on
2 January. Nearly similar HF conditions may be observed for the next
two days if the geomagnetic activity remains at lower levels. However,
if the effect of the CME does raise the geomagnetic activity on 3 and
4 January, minor to moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations in
HF conditions may be possible on these days.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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