[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 05 November - issued 0201UT/05-Nov-2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 5 13:01:07 EST 2015

The solar activity was at moderate levels over the last 24 hrs. Three
M-class flares and a number of smaller C-class flares were observed.
The strongest M3.7 from Region 2443, which was located close to the
solar centre at the time of the eruption, generated a partial halo
coronal mass ejection (CME). Our model runs suggest that the CME will
arrive at Earth on UT day 06 Nov/2000 or thereabout. There remains
isolated chance of more M-class flares from Region 2443. The solar
winds are still relatively strong, nearly 600 km/s, is due to high
speed streams emanating from a large equatorial coronal hole. Should
the IMF Bz turn strongly southward for few hours,currently Bz is near
0 nT, severe geomagnetic storms could occur during such high solar
wind conditions. Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are degraded
mainly in the high to mid latitudes, and is expected to remain
depressed over the next two days.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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