[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 06 May - issued 2333UT/05-May-2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 6 09:33:51 EST 2015

Solar flare activity was high during 5 May UT. Active Region 2339
produced the largest flare of the day, an X2.7 event peaking at 22:11
UT. AR 2339 is located on the north east limb and the associated
strong CME will not be Earthward directed. AR 2335 has grown in size
and magnetic complexity and produced an M2.6 flare peaking at 17:24
UT. AR 2335 will rotate into a geoeffective location toward the end of
the week. H alpha solar telescope observations recorded the eruption
of a solar prominence from a geoeffective location in the Southern
Hemisphere at 22 UT. When SOHO coronagrams become available, they may
show an Earthward directed CME. The slow halo CME launched toward the
east during May 2 is expected to arrive at Earth late today, May 6, or
possibly early on May 7. Aurora watchers should enter standby mode in
case a minor geomagnetic storm eventuates. The solar wind speed has
been approximately 350-400 km/s. Conditions for HF radio wave
propagation have been near predicted monthly values. Short wave fade
outs may occur due to high solar activity.

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