[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 22 June - issued 0006UT/22-Jun-2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 22 10:06:05 EST 2015


Solar activity has been moderate during 21 June with M-class flares
from regions 2371 and 2367. A long duration M2.6 flare from region
2371 towards the centre of the disk was associated with type II/IV
radio sweeps and a full halo fast moving CME. This is the third CME in
the past few days expected to be geoeffective. A weak shock was
observed in the solar wind at 1539UT on 21 June and was the first of
the three CMEs forecast to impact the Earth. The IMF Bz has been
predominantly northward so far with this CME and the effects have been
relatively mild so far. The other two CMEs are forecast to impact the
Earth later in the UT day of 22 June with more significant effects.
There has been an increase in the flux of solar energetic protons
during 21 June associated with the recent flare/CME activity observed
during 21 June. The flux is anticipated to remain elevated for the
next 24-48 hours. Geomagnetic activity is expected to reach major to
severe storm levels in the latter half of the UT day with Aurora
sightings possible to southern mainland regions. HF conditions are
expected to be fair initially declining to poor later in the UT day
with SWFs possible.

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