[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 22 August - issued 2347UT/21-Aug-2015

[rwc]

Solar activity has returned to moderate levels. Active Region (AR)
2403 has grown in complexity and produced three M class solar flares
during 21 Aug. The largest flare was a M1.4 event peaking at 09:48 UT.
This region will likely produce more M class flares during the next 48
hours. AR 2403 will rotate into a more geoeffective location early
next week. If it continues to unleash M class flares, an Earthward
directed CME is possible next week. H alpha solar telescopes show two
spectacular solar prominences on the east limb, one in the Northern
Hemisphere, the other in the Southern Hemisphere. A solar wind
disturbance ahead of fast solar wind may impact Earth during the next
48 hours. This will cause active geomagnetic conditions, possibly
reaching minor storm levels. However, geomagnetic conditions are
expected to remain quiet for most of today, 22 Aug UT. Conditions for
HF radio wave propagation are still unusually depressed globally, but
should gradually strengthen during the 4-week interval approaching the
September equinox.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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