[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 11 July - issued 2358UT/10-Jul-2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 11 09:58:21 EST 2014


Solar activity was moderate during 10 July, and is expected to remain
low to moderate. Active Region 2106 produced the largest X-ray flare
during the previous 24 hours, an M1.5 event peaking at 22:34 UT. AR
2106 is located near the north-west limb. Big Bear H alpha solar
telescope images recorded a large filament eruption during 15-17 UT on
9 July. The subsequent bright partial halo CME was directed eastward,
away from the direction of the Earth. Yesterday's report noted a large
prominence arching above AR 2104 located on the western limb.
Learmonth H alpha images recorded the eruption of this prominence
during 04-06 UT on 10 July. The subsequent bright partial halo CME was
directed westward, again, away from the Earth. Both of these CMEs may
deliver glancing blows to the geomagnetic filed during 13-14 July.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet, though unsettled
periods are likely due to minor CME impacts. At present, the solar
wind speed remains light near 380 km/s. Conditions for HF radio
propagation are near to monthly predicted values. They were enhanced
by up to 40% in the early morning hours at Australian region
mid-latitude stations.

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