[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 22 January - issued 0059UT/22-Jan-2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 22 11:59:39 EST 2014

Active Region 1963 located near the eastern limb of the solar disk
produced a long duration C3.6 class X-ray flare peaking at 22:49 UT on
20 Jan. A halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed to leave the
eastern limb in association with this event. The bulk of this CME is
not Earthward directed but the Enlil solar wind model predicts the
edge of the CME will impact Earth on 23 Jan UT. A minor geomagnetic
storm is possible and auroras may become visible from the southern
coast of Tasmania on the evening of 23 Jan (assuming the CME arrives
as predicted). Solar activity is expected to remain low today but
there is a good chance of an M-class solar flare during the next 3
days. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled
during 22 Jan due to faster coronal hole flows. Ionospheric support
for HF radio communication is expected to soften today, but the
multiday outlook is for enhanced to strongly enhanced conditions.

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