[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 22 September - issued 2336UT/21-Sep-2013

[rwc]

Active Region 1850 has still been busy producing low level B- and
C-class solar X-ray flares. The largest flare was a C3.0 event at
09:24 UT. Solar activity is expected to remain low though with a
chance of a M-class flare. An impressive solar prominence is crossing
the south west limb and observers using a H-alpha telescope with
blocking filter will be treated to dynamic behaviour today. SOHO
spacecraft images show a succession of at least 4 distinct Coronal
Mass Ejections (CMEs) leaving the north east to east limb during 03 to
12 UT on 21 September. The final ejection at 11 UT extended the cone
angle of the combined event well into the south east sector. The
combined event is not Earthward pointing but it may impact Earth on
about 24 September. The solar wind speed was mostly in the range
400-440 km/s during the previous 24 hours and is expected to increase
again during 22 September due to the arrival of the next Coronal Hole
High Speed Stream (CH HSS). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be
mostly quiet today but the 2-4 day outlook is for unsettled conditions
due to the possible impacts of a CH HSS and CMEs. At the time of this
report, the effects are expected to be minor with no geomagnetic
storm. HF propagation conditions for Australian region are expected to
be slightly depressed or near predicted monthly values.

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