[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 19 September - issued 2352UT/18-Sep-2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 19 09:52:31 EST 2013


Solar activity is presently trending upwards. There are five minor
Active Regions (AR) on the solar disk and the background solar UV and
X-ray fluxes are gradually increasing. The largest spot group, AR
1846, produced a C3.9 class X-ray flare at 03:15 UT and more C-class
flares are probable during the next 48 hours. The high speed solar
wind stream expected to impact Earth arrived overnight (Australian
Eastern Time). The solar wind speed almost reached 600 km/s at about
21 UT on 18 September and will remain elevated today. This will lead
to minor geomagnetic activity. A large coronal hole (CH 587) is
located in the Northern Hemisphere and is approaching the solar
central meridian. This coronal hole will rotate into the geo-effective
position in coming days. HF propagation conditions were moderately
depressed for the Australian region during 18 September. However, a
return to predicted monthly values is expected in coming days due to
increasing solar activity.

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