[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 20 November - issued 2350UT/19-Nov-2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 20 10:50:43 EST 2013


Solar activity was high during 19 Nov. Active Region 1893 released a
X1.0 class solar flare peaking at 10:26 UT. This flare caused a short
wave radio fadeout. A minor solar radiation storm may occur today. The
strong CME launched toward the south west in association with the
flare is not expected to be geoeffective. The background solar UV flux
is expected to trend downwards as a cluster of active regions located
in the southern hemisphere recede beyond the western limb. The solar
wind speed has been light (350-400 km/s) and is expected to remain
light. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet during the
next 48 hours. Ionospheric propagation support has been strongly
enhanced at most stations, and is expected to remain strongly enhanced
before the ionosphere eventually responds to the declining solar UV
flux. A short wave fadeout due to an M-class solar flare is possible
during the next 48 hours.

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