[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - August 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 2 14:25:45 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - AUGUST 2004
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1.     SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES

             SOLAR    AUST       AUST
Day     10 cm flux   A-INDEX   T INDEX
01-Aug          83        4       32
02-Aug          85        4       36
03-Aug          88        1       43
04-Aug          85        1       35
05-Aug          89        3       38
06-Aug          91        2       42
07-Aug          95       10       46
08-Aug         105        2       45
09-Aug         114        9       44
10-Aug         121        9       45
11-Aug         131        8       56
12-Aug         147        5       55
13-Aug         149        5       56
14-Aug         149        6       68
15-Aug         139        1       68
16-Aug         134        3       68
17-Aug         135        9       80
18-Aug         140        6       75
19-Aug         121        4       62
20-Aug         121       11       66
21-Aug         120        9       60
22-Aug         115       12       47
23-Aug         110        4       55
24-Aug         105        3       53
25-Aug         100        3       50
26-Aug          98        3       56
27-Aug          91        3       57
28-Aug          87        6       43
29-Aug          86        4       42
30-Aug          90       20       41
31-Aug          88       15        4


          10 CM    SUNSPOT  SUNSPOT  AUST     AUST     No of
          FLUX     NUMBER   NUMBER   A-INDEX  T INDEX  FLARES
          Monthly  Monthly  Yearly   Monthly  Monthly  >M1.0 
Month     Average  Average  Average  Average  Average 
Aug 03     122.1     72.7     60.3     16.2     68.4    4
Sep 03     112.3     48.8     59.8     14.5     67.0    1
Oct 03     153.1     65.6     58.4     23.6     66.6   45
Nov 03     140.8     67.2     57.0     20.1     70.6   29
Dec 03     115.1     47.0     55.0     13.0     74.2    6
Jan 04     114.1     37.2     52.1     17.0     46.5   12
Feb 04     107.8     46.0     49.4     10.0     54.9    3
Mar 04     112.2     48.9     47.5p     9.8     63.2    4
Apr 04     101.3     39.3     45.7p     8.0     60.8    7
May 04      99.7     41.5     43.0p     6.4     51.8    1
Jun 04      97.4     43.2     41.0p     5.9     52.5    1
Jul 04     118.7     51.0     40.1p    11.4     50.2   39
Aug 04     110.1     40.9     39.0p     6.0     50.6   29


               Monthly T indices
       Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
1998    40    41    43    56    46    56    76    75    86    70    74    93  
1999    94    81    89    77    98   124   124   105    89    92   123   113  
2000   108   120   157   152   129   130   146   138   123   129   136   141  
2001   130   131   135   123   112   132   112   113   144   151   156   162  
2002   175   173   167   139   129   120   112   124   128   110   108   120  
2003   110    92    82    71    61    66    75    59    60    65    63    69* 
2004    48*   48*   57*   56    46    47*   45*   40^   38^   36^   33^   31^ 
2005    29^   27^   26^   24^   23^   21^   20^   19^   18^   17^   16^   15^ 
2006    14^   13^   13^   12^   11^   10^   10^    9^    9^    8^    8^    8^ 
2007     7^    7^    8^    8^    8^    9^   10^   10^   11^   11^   12^   13^ 
2008    14^   15^   16^   17^   19^   20^   23^   25^   28^   31^   35^   38^ 
2009    42^   45^   49^   52^   55^   58^   62^   65^   68^   70^   73^   75^ 
2010    78^   80^   83^   85^   89^   92^   94^   97^  100^  103^  105^  108^ 
2011   110^  112^  113^  114^  115^  115^  115^  115^  115^  114^  113^  113^ 
2012   112^  111^  110^  110^  109^  109^  108^  108^  107^  107^  107^  106^ 
2013   105^  104^  103^  101^  100^   97^   95^   93^   90^   87^   84^   81^ 
2014    78^   76^   73^   70^   68^   66^   64^   62^   61^   59^   58^   56^ 
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.

The IPS Monthly T-index is derived from the observed monthly 
median values of foF2 for each hour at up to 40 ionospheric 
stations worldwide.  These records become available from IPS 
stations in Australia very soon after each month, but the 
majority are received up to one year later.  This means that 
the exact observed value of the monthly T-index is not 
available until some months later.
 
The predicted smoothed monthly T-indices are computed by 
using a statistical analysis of the observed monthly T-indices 
for all solar cycles since 1938.  The IPS T-indices may not be 
updated each month but only when sufficient new 
data becomes available.


===============================================================================

2.     FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS 
DATE             CLASS M    CLASS X     FLARE     FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
                 FLARES     FLARES      MAX       DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
12 Aug 04	 M1.2/1F            	0505UT
13 Aug 04	 M1.2/1F            	0729UT
13 Aug 04	 M1.1/1F            	1209UT
13 Aug 04	            X1.0 /1N    1812UT    1807-1815UT
13 Aug 04	 M3.0               	2343UT    2314-2346UT
13 Aug 04	 M2.8/SF            	2350UT
14 Aug 04	 M2.4/SF            	0414UT
14 Aug 04	 M7.4/2N            	0544UT    0536-0552UT
14 Aug 04	 M2.3/1F            	0756UT
14 Aug 04	 M3.2/1F            	1007UT    0952-1017UT
14 Aug 04	 M5.6/2N            	1343UT    1331-1350UT
14 Aug 04	 M1.3               	1818UT
14 Aug 04	 M1.3               	2016UT
15 Aug 04	 M1.2/SF            	0506UT
15 Aug 04	 M1.2/SF            	0600UT
15 Aug 04	 M2.6/2F            	1132UT
15 Aug 04	 M9.4/1N            	1241UT    1234-1243UT
15 Aug 04	 M1.2               	1845UT
16 Aug 04	 M1.1/SF            	0347UT
16 Aug 04	 M1.1/1F            	2244UT
17 Aug 04	 M1.1/SF            	0506UT
17 Aug 04	 M2.4               	1937UT
17 Aug 04	 M1.8               	2121UT
17 Aug 04	 M1.3               	2228UT
18 Aug 04	            X1.8 /SF    1740UT    1729-1754UT
19 Aug 04	 M3.0               	0701UT    0635-0718UT
19 Aug 04	 M2.1               	1351UT
19 Aug 04	            X1.8 /SF    1740UT    1729-1754UT
31 Aug 04	 M1.4               	0538UT


2.1     Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity was at very low to low levels until 12 Aug. Large solar
region 656 became flare active after this date. This region
produced all but one of the 29 xray flare events for the month. A
total of 26 M class and 3 X class events were observed. The
largest flare for the month was an X1.8 on 18 Aug. This region has
returned to solar disk on 01 Sep, but has yet to produce any
activity.

===============================================================================

3.     GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)

DATE                     COMMENTS
21-22 Aug 04:     Isolated active periods.
   29 Aug 04:     Sudden impulse of around 15nT observed at 1002UT.
   30 Aug 04:     Active to Minor Storm observed following sudden impulse.
   31 Aug 04:     Active periods.

Moderate geomagnetic storm activity was observed on 30 Aug, following a 
sudden impulse from a coronal mass ejection. This mass ejection was
probably associated with an erupting solar filament on 27 Aug.

===============================================================================

4.     IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)
31 Aug 04: Regional MUFs depressed 15-30%

Strongly depressed regional ionospheric conditions were 
observed on 31 Aug, following coronal mass ejection 
induced geomagnetic activity on 30 Aug.

===============================================================================

5.     IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED

WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
13 Aug 04	34	14 Aug 04	16 Aug 04
15 Aug 04	35	16 Aug 04	17 Aug 04
16 Aug 04	36	17 Aug 04	19 Aug 04
31 Aug 04	37	31 Aug 04	31 Aug 04



GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
15 Aug 04	23	16 Aug 04	17 Aug 04


ALERTS: 
12 Aug 04: Flare Alert
13 Aug 04: Flare Alert
14 Aug 04: Flare Alert
15 Aug 04: Flare Alert
16 Aug 04: Flare Alert
17 Aug 04: Flare Alert
18 Aug 04: Flare Alert
19 Aug 04: Flare Alert
30 Aug 04: Geomagnetic
31 Aug 04: Flare Alert
31 Aug 04: Geomagnetic


SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE	SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
14 Aug 04: SWF Alert (0539-0639 UT)


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