[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - September 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 7 10:20:12 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - SEPTEMBER 2004
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1.     SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES

             SOLAR    AUST       AUST
Day     10 cm flux   A-INDEX   T INDEX
01-Sep          90        7       30
02-Sep          94        4       41
03-Sep          97        2       42
04-Sep          99        2       45
05-Sep         103        6       49
06-Sep         107        9       52
07-Sep         119        8       51
08-Sep         125        4       52
09-Sep         131        2       61
10-Sep         130        1       66
11-Sep         116        2       64
12-Sep         115        3       66
13-Sep         118        7       63
14-Sep         115       25       68
15-Sep         110       11       45
16-Sep         108       18       49
17-Sep         105       12       52
18-Sep         103        7       57
19-Sep         105        5       54
20-Sep         101        8       56
21-Sep          95        7       43
22-Sep          91       15       42
23-Sep          90        9       33
24-Sep          89        5       40
25-Sep          90        3       32
26-Sep          90        2       36
27-Sep          90        5       38
28-Sep          90        5       39
29-Sep          90        6       37
30-Sep          88        2       44


          10 CM    SUNSPOT  SUNSPOT  AUST     AUST     No of
          FLUX     NUMBER   NUMBER   A-INDEX  T INDEX  FLARES
          Monthly  Monthly  Yearly   Monthly  Monthly  >M1.0 
Month     Average  Average  Average  Average  Average 
Sep 03     112.3     48.8     59.8     14.5     67.0    1
Oct 03     153.1     65.6     58.4     23.6     66.6   45
Nov 03     140.8     67.2     57.0     20.1     70.6   29
Dec 03     115.1     47.0     55.0     13.0     74.2    6
Jan 04     114.1     37.2     52.1     17.0     46.5   12
Feb 04     107.8     46.0     49.4     10.0     54.9    3
Mar 04     112.2     48.9     47.2      9.8     63.2    4
Apr 04     101.3     39.3     45.0p     8.0     60.8    7
May 04      99.7     41.5     42.2p     6.4     51.8    1
Jun 04      97.4     43.2     40.1p     5.9     52.5    1
Jul 04     118.7     51.0     39.1p    11.4     50.2   39
Aug 04     110.1     40.9     38.0p     6.0     50.6   29
Sep 04     103.1     27.7     36.3p     6.7     48.2    4


               Monthly T indices
       Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
1998    40    41    43    56    46    56    76    75    86    70    74    93  
1999    94    81    89    77    98   124   124   105    89    92   123   113  
2000   108   120   157   152   127*  130*  145*  137*  122*  130*  136*  141  
2001   130   131   135   123   112   132   112   113   144   151   156   162  
2002   175   173   167   139   129   120   112   124   128   110   108   120  
2003   110    92    82    71    61    66    75    59    60    65    63    69  
2004    58*   48    57    56*   49*   47    42*   36^   33^   30^   27^   24^ 
2005    22^   20^   19^   17^   16^   15^   14^   13^   12^   11^   10^    9^ 
2006     8^    8^    7^    6^    6^    5^    5^    5^    4^    4^    4^    4^ 
2007     4^    5^    5^    6^    7^    8^    9^   11^   13^   16^   18^   21^ 
2008    25^   28^   32^   36^   41^   45^   50^   54^   59^   64^   68^   73^ 
2009    78^   82^   87^   91^   95^   99^  103^  107^  110^  113^  117^  119^ 
2010   122^  124^  127^  129^  130^  132^  133^  134^  135^  136^  136^  136^ 
2011   136^  136^  135^  135^  134^  133^  131^  130^  128^  127^  125^  123^ 
2012   120^  118^  116^  113^  111^  108^  105^  103^  100^   97^   94^   91^ 
2013    88^   85^   82^   79^   76^   73^   70^   68^   65^   62^   59^   56^ 
2014    54^   51^   49^   46^   44^   41^   39^   37^   35^   33^   31^   29^ 
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.

The IPS Monthly T-index is derived from the observed monthly 
median values of foF2 for each hour at up to 40 ionospheric 
stations worldwide.  These records become available from IPS 
stations in Australia very soon after each month, but the 
majority are received up to one year later.  This means that 
the exact observed value of the monthly T-index is not 
available until some months later.
 
The predicted smoothed monthly T-indices are computed by 
using a statistical analysis of the observed monthly T-indices 
for all solar cycles since 1938.  The IPS T-indices may not be 
updated each month but only when sufficient new 
data becomes available.


===============================================================================

2.     FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS 
DATE             CLASS M    CLASS X     FLARE     FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
                 FLARES     FLARES      MAX       DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
12 Sep 04	 M4.8/2N            	0056UT    0004-0133UT
12 Sep 04	 M3.2/SN            	0139UT    0136-0141UT
14 Sep 04	 M1.5/1F            	0930UT
19 Sep 04	 M1.9               	1712UT


      10Mev Proton/PCA Event
      Began            Ended
13 09 2004 2115UT 15 09 2004 0620UT
19 09 2004 1950UT 20 09 2004 1210UT


2.1     Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels for the month of
September, with only 4 M class X-ray flare events observed.  
The largest flare for the month was an M4.8 event on 12 Sep. 
A minor proton event and coronal mass ejection followed this 
flare. A second minor proton event followed the M1.8
flare on 19 Sep. This event was also associated with a 
coronal mass ejection.

===============================================================================

3.     GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)

DATE                     COMMENTS
14 Sep 04:     Active to minor storm periods.
16 Sep 04:     Unsettled to Active
22 Sep 04:     Brief active to minor storm period.

A weak (28nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data 
at 2002UT on 13 Sep. Active to minor storm levels followed on
14 Sep. This activity is associated with the coronal mass ejection 
and M4.8 flare on 12 Sep. This was the most disturbed day of the month
with the local A index reaching 25 on this day. Mild activity on
16 Sep is believed due to a coronal hole. Another mass ejection
associated with the M1.8 flare on 19 Sep produced brief activity
on 22 Sep, following a weak (27nT) impulse observed in the IPS 
magnetometer data at 0634UT on 22 Sep. 

===============================================================================

4.     IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)
   15 Sep 04: Mild depression 15-20% early in UT day,
	      southern Aus region only.
   21 Sep 04: Mild depression 15% early in UT day,
	      southern Aus region only.
25-29 Sep 04: Darwin and PNG MUFs depressed 15-20% 
	      local night hours.

No major ionospheric depressions were observed this 
month. Proton events may have degraded transpolar
HF circuits during intervals 13-15, and 19-20 Sep.

===============================================================================

5.     IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED

WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
13 Sep 04	38	14 Sep 04	15 Sep 04
20 Sep 04	39	22 Sep 04	23 Sep 04



GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
13 Sep 04	24	14 Sep 04	16 Sep 04
16 Sep 04	25	17 Sep 04	17 Sep 04
20 Sep 04	26	22 Sep 04	23 Sep 04


ALERTS: 
12 Sep 04: Flare Alert
14 Sep 04: Flare Alert
14 Sep 04: Geomagnetic
19 Sep 04: Flare Alert
22 Sep 04: Geomagnetic


SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE	SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
12 Sep 04: SWF Alert (0019-0219 UT)

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