[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - October 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 3 15:56:01 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - OCTOBER 2004
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

++++THIS IS THE FINAL ISSUE OF THE EMAIL TEXT ONLY MONTHLY SUMMARY+++++

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++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


1.     SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES

              SOLAR    AUST       AUST
Day      10 cm flux   A-INDEX   T INDEX
01-Oct          88        3       48
02-Oct          88       11       56
03-Oct          89       15       38
04-Oct          91        8       36
05-Oct          91        3       51
06-Oct          92        1       60
07-Oct          94        2       64
08-Oct          91        7       64
09-Oct          88        5       53
10-Oct          89        5       57
11-Oct          87        8       38
12-Oct          88        5       40
13-Oct          87       16       61
14-Oct          91       17       18
15-Oct          89        7       29
16-Oct          92        3       40
17-Oct          92        1       47
18-Oct          96        3       45
19-Oct         105        5       53
20-Oct         111       11       48
21-Oct         112        7       34
22-Oct         123        5       70
23-Oct         132        3       79
24-Oct         135        9       78
25-Oct         140       12       60
26-Oct         137        3       64
27-Oct         130        5       78
28-Oct         133        2       86
29-Oct         129        7       90
30-Oct         136       13       76
31-Oct         139       10       63


          10 CM    SUNSPOT  SUNSPOT  AUST     AUST     No of
          FLUX     NUMBER   NUMBER   A-INDEX  T INDEX  FLARES
          Monthly  Monthly  Yearly   Monthly  Monthly  >M1.0 
Month     Average  Average  Average  Average  Average 
Oct 03     153.1     65.6     58.4     23.6     66.6   45
Nov 03     140.8     67.2     57.0     20.1     70.6   29
Dec 03     115.1     47.0     55.0     13.0     74.2    6
Jan 04     114.1     37.2     52.1     17.0     46.5   12
Feb 04     107.8     46.0     49.4     10.0     54.9    3
Mar 04     112.2     48.9     47.2      9.8     63.2    4
Apr 04     101.3     39.3     45.6      8.0     60.8    7
May 04      99.7     41.5     43.5p     6.4     51.8    1
Jun 04      97.4     43.2     41.6p     5.9     52.5    1
Jul 04     118.7     51.0     40.7p    11.4     50.2   39
Aug 04     110.1     40.9     39.8p     6.0     50.6   29
Sep 04     103.1     27.7     38.3p     6.7     48.2    4
Oct 04     106.0     48.4     36.9p     6.8     55.6   10


               Monthly T indices
       Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
1998    40    41    43    56    46    56    76    75    86    70    74    93  
1999    94    81    89    77    98   124   124   105    89    92   123   113  
2000   108   120   157   152   127   130   145   137   122   130   136   141  
2001   130   131   135*  123   112   132   112   113   144   151   156   162  
2002   175   173   167   139   129   120   112   124   128   110   108   120  
2003   110    92    82    71    61    66    74*   59*   60*   65    63    68* 
2004    57*   52*   53*   56    49    47    44*   43*   39^   37^   35^   33^ 
2005    31^   29^   27^   25^   24^   23^   21^   20^   19^   18^   17^   16^ 
2006    15^   14^   13^   13^   12^   11^   10^   10^    9^    9^    8^    8^ 
2007     8^    7^    7^    8^    8^    9^    9^   10^   10^   11^   12^   12^ 
2008    13^   14^   16^   17^   19^   20^   23^   25^   28^   31^   35^   38^ 
2009    42^   45^   49^   52^   55^   58^   62^   65^   68^   70^   73^   75^ 
2010    78^   80^   83^   85^   89^   92^   94^   97^  100^  103^  105^  108^ 
2011   110^  112^  113^  114^  115^  115^  115^  115^  115^  114^  113^  113^ 
2012   112^  111^  110^  110^  109^  109^  108^  108^  107^  107^  107^  106^ 
2013   105^  104^  103^  101^  100^   97^   95^   93^   90^   87^   84^   81^ 
2014    78^   76^   73^   70^   68^   66^   64^   62^   61^   59^   58^   56^ 
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.

The IPS Monthly T-index is derived from the observed monthly 
median values of foF2 for each hour at up to 40 ionospheric 
stations worldwide.  These records become available from IPS 
stations in Australia very soon after each month, but the 
majority are received up to one year later.  This means that 
the exact observed value of the monthly T-index is not 
available until some months later.
 
The predicted smoothed monthly T-indices are computed by 
using a statistical analysis of the observed monthly T-indices 
for all solar cycles since 1938.  The IPS T-indices may not be 
updated each month but only when sufficient new 
data becomes available.


===============================================================================

2.     FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS 
DATE             CLASS M    CLASS X     FLARE     FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
                 FLARES     FLARES      MAX       DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
20 Oct 04	 M2.6               	1051UT
22 Oct 04	 M2.1/1N            	0811UT
24 Oct 04	 M2.3/1N            	2028UT
30 Oct 04	 M3.3/SF            	0333UT    0323-0337UT
30 Oct 04	 M4.2/SF            	0618UT    0608-0622UT
30 Oct 04	 M3.7/1N            	0928UT    0909-0930UT
30 Oct 04	            X1.2 /SF    1146UT    1138-1150UT
30 Oct 04	 M5.9/SN            	1633UT    1618-1637UT
31 Oct 04	 M1.1               	0226UT
31 Oct 04	 M2.3/SF            	0532UT

2.1     Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activiy was low until the 20th of the month. Afterwhich,
solar activity increased and high activity was observed on
30 Oct. A total of 10 xray events were observed during the month
of October. The two largest flares for the month both occured
on this day, with an M5.9 at 1633UT, and an X1 at 1146UT.

===============================================================================

3.     GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)

DATE                     COMMENTS
03 Oct 04:    Unsettled to active
13 Oct 04:    Quiet to Active
14 Oct 04:    Quiet to Minor Storm

No signifcant geomagnetic disturbances were observed during the
month of October. A moderate coronal hole induced disturbance was
observed 13-14 October.

===============================================================================

4.     IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)
14 Oct 04: Southern region MUFs depressed 20%
15 Oct 04: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%

Regional MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values
during the month of October. Southern Australian and New Zealand
region MUFs were mild to moderately depressed on 14 and 15 Oct
following coronal hole high speed wind stream induced geomagnetic
activity.

===============================================================================

5.     IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED

WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
14 Oct 04	40	15 Oct 04	15 Oct 04
25 Oct 04	41	25 Oct 04	27 Oct 04
30 Oct 04	42	02 Nov 04	03 Nov 04


GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
13 Oct 04	27	13 Oct 04	14 Oct 04
30 Oct 04	28	01 Nov 04	02 Nov 04

ALERTS: 
03 Oct 04: Geomagnetic
13 Oct 04: Geomagnetic
14 Oct 04: Geomagnetic
20 Oct 04: Flare Alert
22 Oct 04: Flare Alert
24 Oct 04: Flare Alert
30 Oct 04: Flare Alert
31 Oct 04: Flare Alert


SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE	SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
30 Oct 04: SWF Alert (0329-0339 UT)
30 Oct 04: SWF Alert (0609-0624 UT)


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