[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - February 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 3 09:21:53 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - FEBRUARY 2004
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1.     SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES

             SOLAR    AUST       AUST
Day      10 cm flux   A-INDEX   T INDEX
01-Feb          97        9       65
02-Feb         102       12       68
03-Feb         120       18       56
04-Feb         101       11       43
05-Feb         106       11       69
06-Feb         107       13       70
07-Feb         111        7       49
08-Feb         116        3       54
09-Feb         118        6       70
10-Feb         117        6       75
11-Feb         114       21       57
12-Feb         112       23       12
13-Feb         108       16       36
14-Feb         104       13       45
15-Feb         102       14       37
16-Feb          99        5       47
17-Feb         102        3       68
18-Feb          98        9       37
19-Feb          96        5       51
20-Feb          95        3       65
21-Feb          98        7       71
22-Feb         104        8       49
23-Feb         104        8       57
24-Feb         106        9       60
25-Feb         119        6       53
26-Feb         121        3       54
27-Feb         122       12       66
28-Feb         116       14       60
29-Feb         110       16       48


          10 CM    SUNSPOT  SUNSPOT  AUST     AUST     No of
          FLUX     NUMBER   NUMBER   A-INDEX  T INDEX  FLARES
          Monthly  Monthly  Yearly   Monthly  Monthly  >M1.0 
Month     Average  Average  Average  Average  Average 
Feb 03     125.0     46.2     78.6     15.7     95.5    3
Mar 03     132.3     61.5     74.2     15.4     90.9    9
Apr 03     126.5     60.0     70.4     14.7     88.7   15
May 03     116.7     55.2     67.9     17.5     72.9   12
Jun 03     129.4     77.4     65.3     16.3     75.4   43
Jul 03     127.8     85.0     62.1     13.3     76.7    7
Aug 03     122.1     72.7     60.3     16.2     68.4    4
Sep 03     112.3     48.8     59.7p    14.5     67.0    1
Oct 03     153.1     65.6     58.5p    23.6     66.6   45
Nov 03     140.8     67.2     57.4p    20.1     70.6   29
Dec 03     115.1     47.0     55.4p    13.0     74.2    6
Jan 04     114.1     37.2     52.1p    17.0     46.5   12
Feb 04     107.8     46.0     48.8p    10.0     54.9    3


               Monthly T indices
       Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
1992   153   172   155   134    95    80    88    66    68    66    84    90  
1993    74    77    79    63    63    64    62    50    37    40    34    43  
1994    57    41    42    26    15    14    23    18    20    20    20    20  
1995    24    33    23    13     3    11    13    10    13     9    13     7  
1996    12     7     4     2     5     2     3     4     4     3    11    15  
1997    14    11    10     8    11     5     9    17    32    27    28    38  
1998    40    41    43    56    46    56    76    75    86    70    74    93  
1999    94    81    89    77    98   124   124   105    89    92   123   113  
2000   108   120   157   152   129   130   146   138   123   129   136   141  
2001   130   131   135   123   112   132   112   113   144   151   156   162  
2002   174   174   167   139   130   123   115   126   131   113   110   118  
2003   110    93    82    72    63*   70*   77*   65*   61*   65*   64*   68* 
2004    54*   51^   49^   46^   44^   41^   38^   37^   35^   34^   32^   31^ 
2005    29^   28^   27^   25^   24^   22^   21^   20^   19^   17^   17^   16^ 
2006    15^   14^   13^   12^   12^   11^   10^   10^    9^    9^    8^    8^ 
2007     7^    7^    7^    7^    8^    8^    9^    9^   10^   11^   11^   12^ 
2008    13^   14^   16^   17^   19^   20^   23^   25^   28^   31^   35^   38^ 
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.

The IPS Monthly T-index is derived from the observed monthly 
median values of foF2 for each hour at up to 40 ionospheric 
stations worldwide.  These records become available from IPS 
stations in Australia very soon after each month, but the 
majority are received up to one year later.  This means that 
the exact observed value of the monthly T-index is not 
available until some months later.
 
The predicted smoothed monthly T-indices are computed by 
using a statistical analysis of the observed monthly T-indices 
for all solar cycles since 1938.  The IPS T-indices may not be 
updated each month but only when sufficient new 
data becomes available.


===============================================================================

2.     FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS 
DATE             CLASS M    CLASS X     FLARE     FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
                 FLARES     FLARES      MAX       DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
08 Feb 04	 M1.2/SF            	2051UT
26 Feb 04	            X1.1 /2N    0203UT    0150-0210UT
26 Feb 04	 M5.7               	2230UT    2214-2239UT


2.1     Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity was at mostly very low to low levels during the month of
February. Solar activity was moderate on 8 Feb. High activity was observed
on 26 Feb, with an X1.1 flare at 0203UT and an M5.7 flare at 2230 UT.
The X1 event was the largest flare for the month. No coronal mass ejection
was observed with this flare.

===============================================================================

3.     GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)

DATE                     COMMENTS
03 Feb 04:     Unsettled to Active
11 Feb 04:     Quiet to Minor Storm
12 Feb 04:     Unsettled to Minor Storm
13 Feb 04:     Mostly unsettled to active with short isolated minor storm periods
29 Feb 04:     Quiet to Minor Storm

Coronal hole solar wind streams were the source of mild to moderate
geomagnetic activity this month. The most disturbed day of the month
is Feb 12 when the local A index reached 23.

===============================================================================

4.     IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)
04 Feb 04: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
07 Feb 04: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
08 Feb 04: Northern region MUFs depressed 13%
12 Feb 04: Northern region MUFs depressed 25%
	   Southern region MUFs depressed 20%
13 Feb 04: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
18 Feb 04: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
22 Feb 04: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
29 Feb 04: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%

Depressed MUFs were observed in southern Aus/NZ region
generally in association with coronal hole wind stream 
induced activity. Feb 12 was the most depressed day of the 
month, with the local ionospheric daily T index falling to
a value of 12.

===============================================================================

5.     IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED

WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
12 Feb 04	11	12 Feb 04	13 Feb 04
13 Feb 04	12	14 Feb 04	15 Feb 04
15 Feb 04	13	16 Feb 04	16 Feb 04
18 Feb 04	14	18 Feb 04	18 Feb 04
19 Feb 04	15	19 Feb 04	19 Feb 04
26 Feb 04	16	27 Feb 04	29 Feb 04



GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
10 Feb 04	08	11 Feb 04	13 Feb 04
13 Feb 04	09	14 Feb 04	15 Feb 04
15 Feb 04	10	16 Feb 04	16 Feb 04


ALERTS: 
04 Feb 04: Flare Alert
08 Feb 04: Flare Alert
11 Feb 04: Geomagnetic
12 Feb 04: Geomagnetic
26 Feb 04: Flare Alert
29 Feb 04: Geomagnetic


SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE	SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
26 Feb 04: SWF Alert (0154-0234 UT)


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