[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - December 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 6 11:12:52 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - DECEMBER 2003
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES
SOLAR AUST AUST
Day 10 cm flux A-INDEX T INDEX
01-Dec 143 7 74
02-Dec 139 8 109
03-Dec 124 5 111
04-Dec 116 5 94
05-Dec 112 34 108
06-Dec 109 18 60
07-Dec 92 12 46
08-Dec 94 33 38
09-Dec 92 20 32
10-Dec 89 28 42
11-Dec 86 19 2
12-Dec 87 16 30
13-Dec 88 16 53
14-Dec 92 18 52
15-Dec 101 17 31
16-Dec 106 8 43
17-Dec 118 6 70
18-Dec 123 3 88
19-Dec 123 3 91
20-Dec 130 16 74
21-Dec 133 16 20
22-Dec 138 15 80
23-Dec 142 6 85
24-Dec 139 9 120
25-Dec 139 6 128
26-Dec 137 8 120
27-Dec 127 11 116
28-Dec 119 12 104
29-Dec 115 7 119
30-Dec 108 6 84
31-Dec 106 14 76
10 CM SUNSPOT SUNSPOT AUST AUST No of
FLUX NUMBER NUMBER A-INDEX T INDEX FLARES
Monthly Monthly Yearly Monthly Monthly >M1.0
Month Average Average Average Average Average
Dec 02 157.2 81.6 82.1 13.0 124.5 10
Jan 03 144.0 79.5 81.0 12.9 111.6 7
Feb 03 125.0 46.2 78.6 15.7 95.5 3
Mar 03 132.3 61.5 74.2 15.4 90.9 9
Apr 03 126.5 60.0 70.4 14.7 88.7 15
May 03 116.7 55.2 67.9 17.5 72.9 12
Jun 03 129.4 77.4 65.3 16.3 75.4 43
Jul 03 127.8 85.0 62.9p 13.3 76.7 7
Aug 03 122.1 72.7 62.2p 16.2 68.4 4
Sep 03 112.3 48.8 62.3p 14.5 67.0 1
Oct 03 153.1 65.6 61.6p 23.6 66.6 45
Nov 03 140.8 67.2 61.1p 20.1 70.6 29
Dec 03 115.1 47.0 59.7p 13.0 74.2 6
Monthly T indices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1992 153 172 155 134 95 80 88 66 68 66 84 90
1993 74 77 79 63 63 64 62 50 37 40 34 43
1994 57 41 42 26 15 14 23 18 20 20 20 20
1995 24 33 23 13 3 11 13 10 13 9 13 7
1996 12 7 4 2 5 2 3 4 4 3 11 15
1997 14 11 10 8 11 5 9 17 32 27 28 38
1998 40 41 43 56 46 56 76 75 86 70 74 93
1999 94 81 89 77 98 124 124 105 89 92 123 113
2000 108 120 157 152 129 130 146 138 123 129 136 141
2001 130 131 135 123 112 132 112 113 144 151 156 162
2002 174 174 167 139 130 123 115 126 131* 113* 109 118
2003 112* 92* 82* 72* 64 70* 73* 65* 59* 70* 69* 59^
2004 56^ 54^ 52^ 50^ 47^ 45^ 43^ 41^ 40^ 38^ 36^ 34^
2005 32^ 30^ 29^ 27^ 26^ 24^ 23^ 22^ 21^ 20^ 19^ 19^
2006 18^ 17^ 16^ 16^ 15^ 14^ 13^ 13^ 12^ 11^ 10^ 9^
2007 9^ 8^ 8^ 8^ 8^ 8^ 8^ 9^ 9^ 10^ 11^ 12^
2008 13^ 14^ 15^ 17^ 18^ 20^ 23^ 25^ 28^ 31^ 35^ 38^
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.
The IPS Monthly T-index is derived from the observed monthly
median values of foF2 for each hour at up to 40 ionospheric
stations worldwide. These records become available from IPS
stations in Australia very soon after each month, but the
majority are received up to one year later. This means that
the exact observed value of the monthly T-index is not
available until some months later.
The predicted smoothed monthly T-indices are computed by
using a statistical analysis of the observed monthly T-indices
for all solar cycles since 1938. The IPS T-indices may not be
updated each month but only when sufficient new
data becomes available.
===============================================================================
2. FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS
DATE CLASS M CLASS X FLARE FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
FLARES FLARES MAX DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
02 Dec 03 M1.4 1308UT
02 Dec 03 M1.5 2300UT
06 Dec 03 M1.3 1120UT
06 Dec 03 M2.0 1546UT
26 Dec 03 M1.5/1N 1928UT
31 Dec 03 M1.0 1824UT
10Mev Proton Events
Began Ended
02 12 2003 1505UT 03 12 2003 2135UT
2.1 Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity was at predominately very low levels during
the month of December. A total of 6 M class flares were
observed, with the largest flare for the month an M2.0 on
06 Dec. No X class xray flares were observed. The minor
proton event on 02-03 Dec was probably associated with a
long duration xray enhancement possibly originating from
solar region 508 which was located just behind the solar
south-west limb at the time of the event.
===============================================================================
3. GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
DATE COMMENTS
05-06 Dec 03: Minor Storm levels on 05 Dec, declining to unsettled to
active 06 Dec.
08-15 Dec 03: Unsettled to Active, with minor storm periods 08-11 Dec.
20-22 Dec 03: Unsettled to Active
31 Dec 03: Isolated active periods.
A broad coronal hole again produced an extended period of geomagnetic
activity during the interval 08-15 Dec. This coronal hole has now
persisted for at least 6 solar rotations. The solar origin of activity
during the interval 05-06 Dec is unclear, possibly associated with
a coronal mass ejection which was observed on 02 Dec. Mild activity
during 20-22 Dec is believed associated with another coronal hole.
===============================================================================
4. IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
06-07 Dec 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
09 Dec 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
10 Dec 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
11 Dec 03: MUFs depressed 15-30%
15 Dec 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
21 Dec 03: Northern region MUFs depressed 20%
An extended period of lower than normal MUFs was observed
in the southern Australia/NZ region during the interval 07-15 Dec.
This MUF depression followed geomagnetic activity induced by
a broad coronal hole wind stream. Depressed southern Aus/NZ
region MUFs were also observed on 21 Dec following activity
induced by another coronal hole wind stream. The deepest
MUF depression for the month was observed on 11 Dec with
the Australian Regional T index falling to 2 on this day.
===============================================================================
5. IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED
WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
03 Dec 03 93 07 Dec 03 09 Dec 03
05 Dec 03 94 06 Dec 03 08 Dec 03
08 Dec 03 95 09 Dec 03 11 Dec 03
11 Dec 03 96 12 Dec 03 13 Dec 03
15 Dec 03 97 19 Dec 03 20 Dec 03
20 Dec 03 98 21 Dec 03 21 Dec 03
GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
03 Dec 03 57 06 Dec 03 09 Dec 03
15 Dec 03 58 19 Dec 03 20 Dec 03
27 Dec 03 59 28 Dec 03 28 Dec 03
ALERTS:
02 Dec 03: Flare Alert
05 Dec 03: Geomagnetic
06 Dec 03: Geomagnetic
06 Dec 03: Flare Alert
08 Dec 03: Geomagnetic
09 Dec 03: Geomagnetic
10 Dec 03: Geomagnetic
19 Dec 03: Flare Alert
21 Dec 03: Geomagnetic
26 Dec 03: Flare Alert
31 Dec 03: Flare Alert
SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS -NONE ISSUED
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