[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - January 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 2 13:54:50 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - JANUARY 2004
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES
SOLAR AUST AUST
Day 10 cm flux A-INDEX T INDEX
01-Jan 116 18 58
02-Jan 117 11 60
03-Jan 116 17 63
04-Jan 119 19 32
05-Jan 123 18 21
06-Jan 117 16 18
07-Jan 119 24 78
08-Jan 120 7 27
09-Jan 118 18 85
10-Jan 119 18 19
11-Jan 119 16 42
12-Jan 118 9 63
13-Jan 118 17 42
14-Jan 121 14 70
15-Jan 119 17 42
16-Jan 120 17 31
17-Jan 123 16 54
18-Jan 120 12 45
19-Jan 135 17 39
20-Jan 129 14 65
21-Jan 130 14 70
22-Jan 122 50 77
23-Jan 115 30 -22
24-Jan 108 13 50
25-Jan 102 21 11
26-Jan 98 18 -11
27-Jan 94 17 52
28-Jan 89 16 73
29-Jan 87 7 58
30-Jan 93 16 62
31-Jan 94 10 67
10 CM SUNSPOT SUNSPOT AUST AUST No of
FLUX NUMBER NUMBER A-INDEX T INDEX FLARES
Monthly Monthly Yearly Monthly Monthly >M1.0
Month Average Average Average Average Average
Jan 03 144.0 79.5 81.0 12.9 111.6 7
Feb 03 125.0 46.2 78.6 15.7 95.5 3
Mar 03 132.3 61.5 74.2 15.4 90.9 9
Apr 03 126.5 60.0 70.4 14.7 88.7 15
May 03 116.7 55.2 67.9 17.5 72.9 12
Jun 03 129.4 77.4 65.3 16.3 75.4 43
Jul 03 127.8 85.0 62.1 13.3 76.7 7
Aug 03 122.1 72.7 60.7p 16.2 68.4 4
Sep 03 112.3 48.8 60.7p 14.5 67.0 1
Oct 03 153.1 65.6 60.0p 23.6 66.6 45
Nov 03 140.8 67.2 59.4p 20.1 70.6 29
Dec 03 115.1 47.0 57.9p 13.0 74.2 6
Jan 04 114.1 37.2 54.9p 17.0 46.5 12
Monthly T indices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1992 153 172 155 134 95 80 88 66 68 66 84 90
1993 74 77 79 63 63 64 62 50 37 40 34 43
1994 57 41 42 26 15 14 23 18 20 20 20 20
1995 24 33 23 13 3 11 13 10 13 9 13 7
1996 12 7 4 2 5 2 3 4 4 3 11 15
1997 14 11 10 8 11 5 9 17 32 27 28 38
1998 40 41 43 56 46 56 76 75 86 70 74 93
1999 94 81 89 77 98 124 124 105 89 92 123 113
2000 108 120 157 152 129 130 146 138 123 129 136 141
2001 130 131 135 123 112 132 112 113 144 151 156 162
2002 174 174 167 139 130 123 115 126 131* 113* 109 118
2003 112* 92* 82* 72* 64 70* 73* 65* 59* 70* 69* 59^
2004 56^ 54^ 52^ 50^ 47^ 45^ 43^ 41^ 40^ 38^ 36^ 34^
2005 32^ 30^ 29^ 27^ 26^ 24^ 23^ 22^ 21^ 20^ 19^ 19^
2006 18^ 17^ 16^ 16^ 15^ 14^ 13^ 13^ 12^ 11^ 10^ 9^
2007 9^ 8^ 8^ 8^ 8^ 8^ 8^ 9^ 9^ 10^ 11^ 12^
2008 13^ 14^ 15^ 17^ 18^ 20^ 23^ 25^ 28^ 31^ 35^ 38^
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.
The IPS Monthly T-index is derived from the observed monthly
median values of foF2 for each hour at up to 40 ionospheric
stations worldwide. These records become available from IPS
stations in Australia very soon after each month, but the
majority are received up to one year later. This means that
the exact observed value of the monthly T-index is not
available until some months later.
The predicted smoothed monthly T-indices are computed by
using a statistical analysis of the observed monthly T-indices
for all solar cycles since 1938. The IPS T-indices may not be
updated each month but only when sufficient new
data becomes available.
===============================================================================
2. FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS
DATE CLASS M CLASS X FLARE FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
FLARES FLARES MAX DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
05 Jan 04 M6.9 0345UT 0250-0520UT
06 Jan 04 M5.8 0629UT 0613-0636UT
07 Jan 04 M4.5/2N 0404UT 0343-0421UT
07 Jan 04 M8.3/SF 1027UT 1014-1033UT
08 Jan 04 M1.3/1N 0507UT
09 Jan 04 M1.1/2N 0122UT
09 Jan 04 M3.2 0144UT 0133-0154UT
17 Jan 04 M5.0 1750UT 1735-1759UT
18 Jan 04 M1.4/1N 0017UT
19 Jan 04 M1.0/SF 0532UT
19 Jan 04 M1.0 1240UT
20 Jan 04 M6.1/2N 0743UT 0729-0747UT
2.1 Comments on Solar Activity.
Moderate to high solar activity was observed during two
intervals during the month. The first interval of flare
activity was observed 5 to 9 Jan, and the second interval
observed 17 to 20 Jan. Two solar regions produced most of
this activity. Solar region 537 was the main source of flares
during the first interval and solar region 540 produced most
of the second intervals flare activity. A total of 12 flares
was observed during the month. The largest xray flare observed
during the month was an M8.3 event at 1027UT on 07 Jan from
solar region 537. Solar activity was very low to low on other
days during the month.
===============================================================================
3. GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
DATE COMMENTS
01-11 Jan 04: Unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods
13-19 Jan 04: Active periods
22 Jan 04: Active to Major Storm
23 Jan 04: Active to Minor Storm
25 Jan 04: Unsettled to Active
25-30 Jan 04: Active periods
Coronal hole wind streams induced three broad periods of extended
activity 01-11, 13-19 and 25-30 Jan. A coronal mass ejection impacted the
Earth on 22 Jan. This was the most disturbed day during the month with
the local A index reaching 50. A possible second mass ejection induced
milder activity on 23 Jan.
===============================================================================
4. IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
04-06 Jan 04: Regional MUFs depressed 15-20%
08 Jan 04: Southern region MUFs depressed 20%
10 Jan 04: Regional MUFs depressed 15-25%.
11 Jan 04: Regional MUFs depressed 15%.
16 Jan 04: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
18 Jan 04: Northern region MUFs depressed 15%
23 Jan 04: regional MUFs depressed 30%.
24 Jan 04: Northern region MUFs depressed 15%
25 Jan 04: Northern region MUFs depressed 30%
26 Jan 04: regional MUFs depressed 30%.
27 Jan 04: Regional MUFs depressed 15%.
The deepest ionospheric depressions for the month
were observed on 23 and 26 Jan. The ionospheric
depression on 23 Jan followed the geomagnetic sudden
storm commencement from a coronal mass ejection impact
on 22 Jan. The depression on 26 Jan followed moderate
geomagnetic activity on 25 Jan, which was associated
with southward interplanetary magnetic field conditions
of an unknown origin.
===============================================================================
5. IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED
WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
03 Jan 04 01 04 Jan 04 05 Jan 04
05 Jan 04 02 06 Jan 04 07 Jan 04
07 Jan 04 03 08 Jan 04 09 Jan 04
13 Jan 04 04 17 Jan 04 18 Jan 04
16 Jan 04 05 16 Jan 04 18 Jan 04
18 Jan 04 06 18 Jan 04 18 Jan 04
19 Jan 04 07 19 Jan 04 20 Jan 04
21 Jan 04 08 21 Jan 04 23 Jan 04
25 Jan 04 09 25 Jan 04 25 Jan 04
25 Jan 04 10 26 Jan 04 27 Jan 04
GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
03 Jan 04 01 04 Jan 04 05 Jan 04
05 Jan 04 02 06 Jan 04 07 Jan 04
07 Jan 04 03 08 Jan 04 09 Jan 04
13 Jan 04 04 16 Jan 04 18 Jan 04
20 Jan 04 05 20 Jan 04 21 Jan 04
21 Jan 04 06 21 Jan 04 23 Jan 04
29 Jan 04 07 30 Jan 04 01 Feb 04
ALERTS:
04 Jan 04: Geomagnetic
05 Jan 04: Flare Alert
06 Jan 04: Flare Alert
07 Jan 04: Flare Alert
07 Jan 04: Geomagnetic
08 Jan 04: Flare Alert
09 Jan 04: Flare Alert
17 Jan 04: Flare Alert
18 Jan 04: Flare Alert
19 Jan 04: Flare Alert
20 Jan 04: Flare Alert
22 Jan 04: Geomagnetic
23 Jan 04: Geomagnetic
28 Jan 04: Geomagnetic
SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
05 Jan 04: SWF Alert (0304-0619 UT)
06 Jan 04: SWF Alert (0619-0644 UT)
07 Jan 04: SWF Alert (0354-0434 UT)
09 Jan 04: SWF Alert (0134-0224 UT)
20 Jan 04: SWF Alert (0734-0754 UT)
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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