[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - July 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 3 12:21:18 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - JULY 2004
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1.     SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES

            SOLAR    AUST       AUST
Day     10 cm flux   A-INDEX   T INDEX
01-Jul          81        8       52
02-Jul          81        7       41
03-Jul          80        6       35
04-Jul          79        4       38
05-Jul          78        4       38
06-Jul          79        4       31
07-Jul          79        2       27
08-Jul          82        0       32
09-Jul          87        1       33
10-Jul          93        3       36
11-Jul         104       10       47
12-Jul         125        8       54
13-Jul         127        9       56
14-Jul         138        4       57
15-Jul         146        3       64
16-Jul         147        5       64
17-Jul         149        9       75
18-Jul         155        5       71
19-Jul         170        7       69
20-Jul         175        5       70
21-Jul         172        3       66
22-Jul         173       16       64
23-Jul         165       24       97
24-Jul         147       19       73
25-Jul         145       57       92
26-Jul         128       21        6
27-Jul         118       80       60
28-Jul         101       13       23
29-Jul         100        6       28
30-Jul          89        4       25
31-Jul          86        7       33


          10 CM    SUNSPOT  SUNSPOT  AUST     AUST     No of
          FLUX     NUMBER   NUMBER   A-INDEX  T INDEX  FLARES
          Monthly  Monthly  Yearly   Monthly  Monthly  >M1.0 
Month     Average  Average  Average  Average  Average 
Jul 03     127.8     85.0     62.1     13.3     76.7    7
Aug 03     122.1     72.7     60.3     16.2     68.4    4
Sep 03     112.3     48.8     59.8     14.5     67.0    1
Oct 03     153.1     65.6     58.4     23.6     66.6   45
Nov 03     140.8     67.2     57.0     20.1     70.6   29
Dec 03     115.1     47.0     55.0     13.0     74.2    6
Jan 04     114.1     37.2     52.1     17.0     46.5   12
Feb 04     107.8     46.0     49.2p    10.0     54.9    3
Mar 04     112.2     48.9     47.2p     9.8     63.2    4
Apr 04     101.3     39.3     45.4p     8.0     60.8    7
May 04      99.7     41.5     42.7p     6.4     51.8    1
Jun 04      97.4     43.2     40.7p     5.9     52.5    1
Jul 04     118.7     51.0     39.7p    11.4     50.2   39


               Monthly T indices
       Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
1998    40    41    43    56    46    56    76    75    86    70    74    93  
1999    94    81    89    77    98   124   124   105    89    92   123   113  
2000   108   120   157   152   129   130   146   138   123   129   136   141  
2001   130   131   135   123   112   132   112   113   144   151   156   162  
2002   175   173   167   139   129   120   112   124   128   110   110   120  
2003   111    93    83    73    62    68    75    59*   60*   65*   63*   69* 
2004    49*   46*   57*   52*   39*   42^   39^   37^   35^   33^   31^   29^ 
2005    28^   27^   25^   24^   22^   21^   20^   19^   18^   17^   16^   15^ 
2006    14^   13^   13^   12^   11^   10^   10^    9^    9^    8^    8^    8^ 
2007     7^    7^    8^    8^    8^    9^   10^   10^   11^   11^   12^   13^ 
2008    14^   15^   16^   17^   19^   20^   23^   25^   28^   31^   35^   38^ 
2009    42^   45^   49^   52^   55^   58^   62^   65^   68^   70^   73^   75^ 
2010    78^   80^   83^   85^   89^   92^   94^   97^  100^  103^  105^  108^ 
2011   110^  112^  113^  114^  115^  115^  115^  115^  115^  114^  113^  113^ 
2012   112^  111^  110^  110^  109^  109^  108^  108^  107^  107^  107^  106^ 
2013   105^  104^  103^  101^  100^   97^   95^   93^   90^   87^   84^   81^ 
2014    78^   76^   73^   70^   68^   66^   64^   62^   61^   59^   58^   56^ 
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.

The IPS Monthly T-index is derived from the observed monthly 
median values of foF2 for each hour at up to 40 ionospheric 
stations worldwide.  These records become available from IPS 
stations in Australia very soon after each month, but the 
majority are received up to one year later.  This means that 
the exact observed value of the monthly T-index is not 
available until some months later.
 
The predicted smoothed monthly T-indices are computed by 
using a statistical analysis of the observed monthly T-indices 
for all solar cycles since 1938.  The IPS T-indices may not be 
updated each month but only when sufficient new 
data becomes available.


===============================================================================

2.     FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS 
DATE             CLASS M    CLASS X     FLARE     FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
                 FLARES     FLARES      MAX       DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
12 Jul 04	 M1.6               	0808UT
13 Jul 04	 M6.7               	0017UT    0009-0023UT
13 Jul 04	 M5.4/1N            	0848UT    0840-0855UT
13 Jul 04	 M2.9               	1208UT
13 Jul 04	 M1.1/1N            	1838UT
13 Jul 04	 M6.2/1B            	1932UT    1924-1936UT
14 Jul 04	 M6.2/1N            	0523UT    0502-0527UT
15 Jul 04	            X1.8        0141UT    0130-0148UT
15 Jul 04	            X1.6        1824UT    1815-1828UT
16 Jul 04	            X1.3        0206UT    0143-0212UT
16 Jul 04	            X1.1 /1F    1041UT    1032-1046UT
16 Jul 04	            X3.6 /3B    1355UT    1349-1401UT    1349-1401UT
16 Jul 04	 M1.2/SF            	1628UT
17 Jul 04	            X1.0 /1F    0757UT    0751-0759UT
17 Jul 04	 M2.5/1N            	1651UT
17 Jul 04	 M2.0/1F            	2131UT
17 Jul 04	 M1.1               	2308UT
18 Jul 04	 M2.0/1F            	0035UT
18 Jul 04	 M1.5/SF            	0257UT
18 Jul 04	 M1.9/1F            	1713UT
20 Jul 04	 M8.6/3B            	1232UT    1222-1245UT
22 Jul 04	 M9.1               	0032UT    0014-0043UT
22 Jul 04	 M1.6/2N            	2258UT
23 Jul 04	 M2.2/SF            	1728UT
23 Jul 04	 M1.7               	2123UT
24 Jul 04	 M1.0/1F            	0606UT
24 Jul 04	 M2.5               	1850UT
25 Jul 04	 M7.1/2B            	0551UT    0539-0558UT
25 Jul 04	 M1.0/1F            	0639UT
25 Jul 04	 M2.2               	1349UT
25 Jul 04	 M1.1/1F            	1514UT
26 Jul 04	 M1.3/SF            	0552UT
26 Jul 04	 M1.1/2N            	1730UT
26 Jul 04	 M1.2               	0000UT
27 Jul 04	 M1.1/1N            	0545UT
27 Jul 04	 M1.5/1F            	2020UT
27 Jul 04	 M1.2/1F            	0000UT
28 Jul 04	 M2.0               	0006UT


       10Mev Proton/PCA Event 
         Begin         End
 25 07 2004 1920UT   27 07 2004 1445UT
 27 07 2004 1510UT   27 07 2004 1735UT
 27 07 2004 1830UT   27 07 2004 1930UT
 27 07 2004 2015UT   28 07 2004 0005UT


2.1     Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity was initially at very low to low levels for the first 
11 days of the month of July. Moderate to high solar flare activity was 
observed during the remainder of the month.  A total of 38 xray 
flare events were observed, 32 M class events and 6 X class events. 
The largest flare for the month was an X3.6 on Jul 16. This flare 
activity originated from two solar regions, numbered 649 and 652. Solar region 
649 rotated onto the solar disk on 12 July and produced all 6 X class 
events.  Solar region 652 rotated onto the solar disk on 16 July and 
produced M class activity from 20 July. Solar region 649 showed
decay and a decline in flare activity after 19 July. Solar region
649 is due back to the solar disk on 7 Aug. Solar region 652 was still
active as it left the solar disk and is due back to the solar east limb
on 12 Aug. Numerous mass ejections were observed in association with 
the flare activity from these regions. Auroral sighting were reported
during the period 25-29 July, as a result of some of these mass ejection
events. Solar proton events were also observed during the interval 25-27 
July degrading transpolar HF circuits during this period.

===============================================================================

3.     GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)

DATE                     COMMENTS
22 Jul 04:     Quiet to Minor Storm
23 Jul 04:     Active to minor storm
24 Jul 04:     Unsettled to Active
25 Jul 04:     Active to Major Storm
26 Jul 04:     Quiet to Major Storm
27 Jul 04:     Active to Severe Storm Levels

Coronal mass ejection induced geomagnetic storm activity was
observed from the interval 22 to 27 July. Severe storm activity
was observed on 25 and 27 July. The local A index reached 57
and 80 respectively, on these days.


===============================================================================

4.     IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)
26 Jul 04: Southern region MUFs depressed 35%
28 Jul 04: Southern region MUFs depressed 20%

Strongly depressed ionospheric MUFs were observed
on 26 and 28 July following strong geomagnetic
storm activity on 25 and 27 July. Frequent short wave
fadeouts were observed during the later half of the 
month in association with this months increased flare 
activity. Also, transpolar HF communications experienced 
increased absorption at times during the interval 25-27 July 
due to energetic solar proton events associated with some
of these flares.



===============================================================================

5.     IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED

WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
13 Jul 04	26	13 Jul 04	16 Jul 04
14 Jul 04	27	15 Jul 04	16 Jul 04
16 Jul 04	28	17 Jul 04	19 Jul 04
17 Jul 04	29	17 Jul 04	17 Jul 04
19 Jul 04	30	20 Jul 04	22 Jul 04
25 Jul 04	31	26 Jul 04	26 Jul 04
26 Jul 04	32	26 Jul 04	28 Jul 04
29 Jul 04	33	30 Jul 04	31 Jul 04



GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
14 Jul 04	19	15 Jul 04	16 Jul 04
17 Jul 04	20	17 Jul 04	17 Jul 04
25 Jul 04	21	25 Jul 04	27 Jul 04
29 Jul 04	22	29 Jul 04	30 Jul 04


ALERTS: 
12 Jul 04: Flare Alert
13 Jul 04: Flare Alert
14 Jul 04: Flare Alert
15 Jul 04: Flare Alert
16 Jul 04: Flare Alert
17 Jul 04: Flare Alert
17 Jul 04: Geomagnetic
18 Jul 04: Flare Alert
20 Jul 04: Flare Alert
22 Jul 04: Flare Alert
22 Jul 04: Geomagnetic
23 Jul 04: Flare Alert
23 Jul 04: Geomagnetic
24 Jul 04: Flare Alert
24 Jul 04: Geomagnetic
25 Jul 04: Flare Alert
25 Jul 04: Geomagnetic
26 Jul 04: Flare Alert
26 Jul 04: Geomagnetic
27 Jul 04: Flare Alert
27 Jul 04: Geomagnetic
28 Jul 04: Geomagnetic
29 Jul 04: Flare Alert


SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE	SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
15 Jul 04: SWF Alert (0134-0239 UT)
16 Jul 04: SWF Alert (0159-0314 UT)
22 Jul 04: SWF Alert (0014-0124 UT)
25 Jul 04: SWF Alert (0544-0609 UT)


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