[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - August 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 4 10:26:05 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - AUGUST 2003
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1.     SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES

             SOLAR    AUST       AUST
Day     10 cm flux   A-INDEX   T INDEX
01-Aug         107       27       65
02-Aug         111       16       53
03-Aug         120       11       60
04-Aug         123        9       53
05-Aug         131        6       63
06-Aug         129       13       95
07-Aug         137       19       73
08-Aug         133       23       83
09-Aug         130       12       74
10-Aug         131       10       70
11-Aug         129        8       75
12-Aug         123       20       87
13-Aug         131       12       84
14-Aug         130       13       85
15-Aug         131        9       89
16-Aug         127        8       93
17-Aug         119       16       71
18-Aug         116       54       96
19-Aug         117       16       19
20-Aug         112       12       61
21-Aug         119       33       63
22-Aug         121       31       37
23-Aug         120       31       40
24-Aug         116       17       54
25-Aug         117       14       55
26-Aug         121       11       65
27-Aug         126        8       69
28-Aug         119       12       70
29-Aug         116       14       72
30-Aug         114       10       63
31-Aug         110        7       82


          10 CM    SUNSPOT  SUNSPOT  AUST     AUST     No of
          FLUX     NUMBER   NUMBER   A-INDEX  T INDEX  FLARES
          Monthly  Monthly  Yearly   Monthly  Monthly  >M1.0 
Month     Average  Average  Average  Average  Average 
Aug 02     184.0    116.4     98.7     11.2    133.5   45
Sep 02     175.9    109.3     94.6      9.8    137.7   12
Oct 02     167.0     97.5     90.5     15.7    119.7   22
Nov 02     168.7     95.0     85.3     14.5    121.1   11
Dec 02     157.2     81.6     82.1     13.0    124.5   10
Jan 03     144.0     79.5     81.0     12.9    111.6    7
Feb 03     125.0     46.2     78.6     15.7     95.5    3
Mar 03     132.3     61.5     74.4p    15.4     90.9    9
Apr 03     126.5     60.0     70.2p    14.7     88.7   15
May 03     116.7     55.2     66.4p    17.5     72.9   12
Jun 03     129.4     77.4     63.0p    16.3     75.4   43
Jul 03     127.8     85.0     60.1p    13.3     76.7    7
Aug 03     122.1     72.7     58.5p    16.2     68.4    4


               Monthly T indices
       Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
1992   153   172   155   134    95    80    88    66    68    66    84    90  
1993    74    77    79    63    63    64    62    50    37    40    34    43  
1994    57    41    42    26    15    14    23    18    20    20    20    20  
1995    24    33    23    13     3    11    13    10    13     9    13     7  
1996    12     7     4     2     5     2     3     4     4     3    11    15  
1997    14    11    10     8    11     5     9    17    32    27    28    38  
1998    40    41    43    56    46    56    76    75    86    70    74    93  
1999    94    81    89    77    98   124   124   105    89    92   123   113  
2000   108   120   157   152   129   130   146   138   123   129   136   141  
2001   130   131   135   123   112   132   112   113   144   151   156   162  
2002   174*  174*  167*  137   128*  119*  111   127   129*  112   109*  118* 
2003   112*   92*   85*   73*   60*   67*   71*   61^   57^   54^   51^   49^ 
2004    45^   43^   40^   38^   36^   33^   31^   29^   28^   26^   24^   23^ 
2005    21^   20^   19^   17^   16^   15^   14^   13^   12^   11^   10^    9^ 
2006     8^    8^    7^    6^    6^    5^    5^    5^    4^    4^    4^    4^ 
2007     4^    5^    5^    6^    7^    8^    9^   11^   13^   16^   18^   21^ 
2008    25^   28^   32^   36^   41^   45^   50^   54^   59^   64^   68^   73^ 
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.

The IPS Monthly T-index is derived from the observed monthly 
median values of foF2 for each hour at up to 40 ionospheric 
stations worldwide.  These records become available from IPS 
stations in Australia very soon after each month, but the 
majority are received up to one year later.  This means that 
the exact observed value of the monthly T-index is not 
available until some months later.
 
The predicted smoothed monthly T-indices are computed by 
using a statistical analysis of the observed monthly T-indices 
for all solar cycles since 1938.  The IPS T-indices may not be 
updated each month but only when sufficient new 
data becomes available.


===============================================================================

2.     FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS 
DATE             CLASS M    CLASS X     FLARE     FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
                 FLARES     FLARES      MAX       DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
02 Aug 03	 M1.3/1F            	2354UT
05 Aug 03	 M1.7/SN            	1249UT
19 Aug 03	 M2.0/1N            	0759UT
19 Aug 03	 M2.7/2F            	1006UT


2.1     Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar flare activity was at mostly low levels during the month of
August with only 4 isolated low level M class events observed. 
The largest flare for the month was an M2.7 on Aug 19. However,
numerous coronal holes were observed on the solar disk during the 
month.


===============================================================================

3.     GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)

DATE                     COMMENTS
01-02 Aug 03: Isolated Active to minor storm periods.
07-08 Aug 03: Active to minor storm periods.
   12 Aug 03: Active periods.
   17 Aug 03: Active to minor storm periods second half of UT day.
   18 Aug 03: Severe Storm Levels
   19 Aug 03: Active periods.
21-25 Aug 03: Active to minor storm periods.

The most significant disturbance for the month was observed
on 18 August. This disturbance was not forecast and the 
solar origin of the activity remains unclear. The best candidate
is a halo coronal mass ejection observed at around 21UT on 14 August
which was then assumed a backside solar disk event due to to the lack
of frontside on disk solar activity around this time. The strong storm
conditions appeared super-imposed on a moderate coronal hole
wind stream induced disturbance, which had begun a day earlier. 
The local Australian A index reached 54 on this day. Geomagnetic
activity was also quite strong on 21 Aug, and this activity 
is believed associated with the Earth entering a coronal
hole high speed wind stream on this day.

===============================================================================

4.     IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)
18 Aug 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 15-30% late in UT day.
19 Aug 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 20-40% first half UT day.
20 Aug 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
22 Aug 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 15-20%
23 Aug 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 15-20%
24 Aug 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 10-15%

The deepest ionospheric depression for the month was
observed on 19 August following unexpected strong geomagnetic
storm activity. The local Australian region ionospheric
T index fell to 19 on this day. Ionospheric MUF depressions 
were mostly confined to southern Aus/NZ region. Northern Aus 
region MUFs remained mostly near or above predicted monthly values 
during the month of August.

===============================================================================

5.     IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED

WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
05 Aug 03	55	07 Aug 03	09 Aug 03
13 Aug 03	56	14 Aug 03	16 Aug 03
18 Aug 03	57	18 Aug 03	18 Aug 03
19 Aug 03	58	19 Aug 03	19 Aug 03
20 Aug 03	59	20 Aug 03	20 Aug 03
21 Aug 03	60	21 Aug 03	23 Aug 03
23 Aug 03	61	24 Aug 03	24 Aug 03



GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
03 Aug 03	35	06 Aug 03	08 Aug 03
09 Aug 03	36	11 Aug 03	13 Aug 03
18 Aug 03	37	18 Aug 03	18 Aug 03
19 Aug 03	38	19 Aug 03	19 Aug 03
21 Aug 03	39	21 Aug 03	23 Aug 03
23 Aug 03	40	24 Aug 03	24 Aug 03


ALERTS: 
01 Aug 03: Geomagnetic
02 Aug 03: Geomagnetic
03 Aug 03: Flare Alert
05 Aug 03: Flare Alert
06 Aug 03: Geomagnetic
07 Aug 03: Geomagnetic
08 Aug 03: Geomagnetic
17 Aug 03: Geomagnetic
18 Aug 03: Geomagnetic
19 Aug 03: Geomagnetic
19 Aug 03: Flare Alert
21 Aug 03: Geomagnetic
22 Aug 03: Geomagnetic
23 Aug 03: Geomagnetic
29 Aug 03: Geomagnetic


SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE	SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
None Issued.

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