[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - October 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 5 10:35:39 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - OCTOBER 2003
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES
SOLAR AUST AUST
Day 10 cm flux A-INDEX T INDEX
01-Oct 137 5 98
02-Oct 125 7 90
03-Oct 120 12 92
04-Oct 119 4 91
05-Oct 110 3 80
06-Oct 112 10 85
07-Oct 112 14 83
08-Oct 113 5 74
09-Oct 111 5 82
10-Oct 112 2 84
11-Oct 106 0 75
12-Oct 98 4 74
13-Oct 94 11 70
14-Oct 92 29 71
15-Oct 96 26 24
16-Oct 95 18 56
17-Oct 99 19 74
18-Oct 109 18 65
19-Oct 120 21 44
20-Oct 135 16 56
21-Oct 152 25 62
22-Oct 154 21 58
23-Oct 183 9 65
24-Oct 191 42 79
25-Oct 222 23 28
26-Oct 298 11 76
27-Oct 257 10 70
28-Oct 274 17 88
29-Oct 279 155 76
30-Oct 271 78 -16
31-Oct 249 112 11
10 CM SUNSPOT SUNSPOT AUST AUST No of
FLUX NUMBER NUMBER A-INDEX T INDEX FLARES
Monthly Monthly Yearly Monthly Monthly >M1.0
Month Average Average Average Average Average
Oct 02 167.0 97.5 90.5 15.7 119.7 22
Nov 02 168.7 95.0 85.3 14.5 121.1 11
Dec 02 157.2 81.6 82.1 13.0 124.5 10
Jan 03 144.0 79.5 81.0 12.9 111.6 7
Feb 03 125.0 46.2 78.6 15.7 95.5 3
Mar 03 132.3 61.5 74.2 15.4 90.9 9
Apr 03 126.5 60.0 70.4 14.7 88.7 15
May 03 116.7 55.2 67.6p 17.5 72.9 12
Jun 03 129.4 77.4 65.1p 16.3 75.4 43
Jul 03 127.8 85.0 63.2p 13.3 76.7 7
Aug 03 122.1 72.7 62.6p 16.2 68.4 4
Sep 03 112.3 48.8 62.8p 14.5 67.0 1
Oct 03 153.1 65.6 62.2p 23.6 66.6 45
Monthly T indices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1992 153 172 155 134 95 80 88 66 68 66 84 90
1993 74 77 79 63 63 64 62 50 37 40 34 43
1994 57 41 42 26 15 14 23 18 20 20 20 20
1995 24 33 23 13 3 11 13 10 13 9 13 7
1996 12 7 4 2 5 2 3 4 4 3 11 15
1997 14 11 10 8 11 5 9 17 32 27 28 38
1998 40 41 43 56 46 56 76 75 86 70 74 93
1999 94 81 89 77 98 124 124 105 89 92 123 113
2000 108 120 157 152 129 130 146 138 123 129 136 141
2001 130 131 135 123 112 132 112 113 144 151 156 162
2002 174 174 167 139* 130* 123* 111 127 129 112 109* 118*
2003 112 92 82 73 64* 74* 77* 56* 53* 55^ 52^ 49^
2004 45^ 42^ 40^ 38^ 35^ 33^ 31^ 29^ 28^ 26^ 24^ 23^
2005 21^ 20^ 19^ 17^ 16^ 15^ 14^ 13^ 12^ 11^ 10^ 9^
2006 8^ 8^ 7^ 6^ 6^ 5^ 5^ 5^ 4^ 4^ 4^ 4^
2007 4^ 5^ 5^ 6^ 7^ 8^ 9^ 11^ 13^ 16^ 18^ 21^
2008 25^ 28^ 32^ 36^ 41^ 45^ 50^ 54^ 59^ 64^ 68^ 73^
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.
The IPS Monthly T-index is derived from the observed monthly
median values of foF2 for each hour at up to 40 ionospheric
stations worldwide. These records become available from IPS
stations in Australia very soon after each month, but the
majority are received up to one year later. This means that
the exact observed value of the monthly T-index is not
available until some months later.
The predicted smoothed monthly T-indices are computed by
using a statistical analysis of the observed monthly T-indices
for all solar cycles since 1938. The IPS T-indices may not be
updated each month but only when sufficient new
data becomes available.
===============================================================================
2. FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS
DATE CLASS M CLASS X FLARE FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
FLARES FLARES MAX DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
01 Oct 03 M1.4/1F 0451UT
04 Oct 03 M1.0/SF 1547UT
19 Oct 03 M1.9/1F 0626UT
19 Oct 03 X1.1 /1N 1650UT 1629-1704UT
19 Oct 03 M1.0/SF 1926UT
20 Oct 03 M1.9 0722UT
21 Oct 03 M1.0/SF 0827UT
22 Oct 03 M3.7/SF 0351UT 0328-0521UT
22 Oct 03 M1.7 0844UT
22 Oct 03 M1.7 0956UT
22 Oct 03 M1.4/SN 1511UT
22 Oct 03 M1.2/SN 1601UT
22 Oct 03 M2.4 2330UT
22 Oct 03 M9.9/SF 2007UT 1947-2028UT
22 Oct 03 M2.1 2204UT
23 Oct 03 M2.4/SN 0241UT
23 Oct 03 M3.2/1N 0708UT 0702-0710UT
23 Oct 03 X5.4 /1B 0835UT 0819-0849UT 0819-0849UT
23 Oct 03 M2.7 1053UT
23 Oct 03 X1.1 /1N 2004UT 1950-2014UT
24 Oct 03 M7.6/1N 0254UT 0227-0314UT
24 Oct 03 M4.2/1F 0510UT 0504-0516UT
24 Oct 03 M1.3 1856UT
24 Oct 03 M1.0/1N 2140UT
25 Oct 03 M1.2/2N 0446UT
25 Oct 03 M1.7/SF 0553UT
25 Oct 03 M1.5/SF 1035UT
25 Oct 03 M1.0/1N 2140UT
26 Oct 03 X1.2 /3B 0654UT 0557-0733UT
26 Oct 03 X1.2 /1N 1819UT 1721-1921UT
26 Oct 03 M7.6/2N 2140UT 2134-2148UT
27 Oct 03 M1.2/SF 0439UT
27 Oct 03 X1.2 /3B 0654UT 0557-0733UT
27 Oct 03 M2.7/2F 0833UT
27 Oct 03 M5.0/SF 0927UT 0921-0932UT
27 Oct 03 M6.7/SF 1243UT 1227-1252UT
27 Oct 03 M1.9/SN 2151UT
28 Oct 03 X17.2 /4B 1110UT 0951-1124UT 0951-1124UT
29 Oct 03 M1.1/1F 0151UT
29 Oct 03 M3.5/SN 0511UT 0408-0554UT
29 Oct 03 X10.0 /2B 2049UT 2037-2101UT 2037-2101UT
30 Oct 03 M1.6/1F 0207UT
30 Oct 03 M1.5 1528UT
31 Oct 03 M2.0 0433UT
31 Oct 03 M1.1/SF 0616UT
10Mev Proton/PCA Event
Began Ended
26 10 2003 1825UT 27 10 2003 1950UT
28 10 2003 1215UT 01 11 2003 0945UT
2.1 Comments on Solar Activity.
Three large solar regions, 484, 486 and 488, produced a dramatic
increase in solar activity from 19 Oct to the end of the month.
During the month a total of of 45 xray flare events were observed,
37 M class flares, and 8 X class flares. Most of this activity
took place in the later part of the month. The largest flare for the
month was an X17.2 flare on Oct 28. This flare was produced by
solar region 486, and was associated with a strong proton event
and a very fast coronal mass ejection. Region 486 rotated onto the
solar disk on 22 Oct and rapidly grew, reaching a maximum area of
approximately 2600 millionths of the solar disk, making it the largest
sunspot group of this cycle (cycle number 23). Region 486 contributed
14 M class and 4 X class events, and is currently located in the far
south-west quadrant of the solar disk. Solar region 484 rotated onto the
solar disk on 18 Oct, contributed, 18 flare events, 16 lower level M class
events, and 2 X1 events. This solar region rotated off the visible
solar disk on 30 Oct. This region is possibly due back to the east limb
of the Sun on 13 Nov. Region 488 rapidly emerged on the solar disk
on 27 Oct. This region contributed 3 low level M class events. Region 488
is currently located in the far north-west solar quadrant. Several coronal
mass ejections were observed in association with flare activity from
regions 484 and 486. Solar region 486 also produced the X10 flare event
on 29 Oct. This event was also associated with a coronal mass ejection.
===============================================================================
3. GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
DATE COMMENTS
14 Oct 03: Unsettled to Minor Storm
15 Oct 03: Unsettled to Minor Storm
16 Oct 03: Quiet to Minor Storm
17-20 Oct 03: Quiet to Active
21 Oct 03: Unsettled to Minor Storm
22 Oct 03: Unsettled to Active
24 Oct 03: Isolated severe storm levels second half UT day, following sudden impulse of 74nT,
observed in IPS magnetometer data 1525UT.
25 Oct 03: Initially at minor storm levels, then repaidly declined to unsettled levels.
26 Oct 03: Weak sudden impulse of 11nT observed in IPS magnetometer data at 1909UT.
28 Oct 03: Quiet to Active
29 Oct 03: Severe Storm Levels. Strong sudden impulse of 139nT observed in IPS magnetometer
data at 0611UT.
30 Oct 03: Severe Storm Levels
31 Oct 03: Severe Storm Levels
Mild to moderate activity during interval 17 to 22 Oct was due to
solar coronal holes. Severe storm activity was briefly observed
late on 24 Oct in association with a coronal mass ejection. Severe
storm activity was observed during interval 29 to 31 Oct due to
the arrival of multiple strong solar mass ejection events. The local
Australian regional A index reached 155 on 29 oct, 78 on 30 Oct and 93
on 31 oct.
===============================================================================
4. IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
15 Oct 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 30%
19 Oct 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 20%
25 Oct 03: Regional MUFs depressed 15 to 20%
30 Oct 03: Regional MUFs depressed 30 to 50%
31 Oct 03: Regional MUFs depressed 20 to 50%.
Strongly depressed and degraded conditions were
observed on 30 and 31 Oct following severe
geomagnetic storm activity associated with
the arrival of solar coronal mass ejections.
Strong shortwave fadeout (all frequencies) observed
2044UT 29 Oct to 0109UT on 30 Oct in association
with X10 xray solar flare.
===============================================================================
5. IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED
WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
12 Oct 03 67 15 Oct 03 16 Oct 03
14 Oct 03 68 15 Oct 03 15 Oct 03
15 Oct 03 69 16 Oct 03 16 Oct 03
19 Oct 03 70 20 Oct 03 22 Oct 03
20 Oct 03 71 20 Oct 03 20 Oct 03
21 Oct 03 72 22 Oct 03 22 Oct 03
22 Oct 03 73 23 Oct 03 25 Oct 03
22 Oct 03 74 24 Oct 03 25 Oct 03
24 Oct 03 75 25 Oct 03 25 Oct 03
25 Oct 03 76 26 Oct 03 28 Oct 03
26 Oct 03 77 28 Oct 03 29 Oct 03
28 Oct 03 78 29 Oct 03 30 Oct 03
28 Oct 03 79 29 Oct 03 31 Oct 03
30 Oct 03 80 30 Oct 03 01 Nov 03
30 Oct 03 81 30 Oct 03 01 Nov 03
31 Oct 03 82 01 Nov 03 03 Nov 03
GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
12 Oct 03 46 14 Oct 03 16 Oct 03
18 Oct 03 47 21 Oct 03 22 Oct 03
22 Oct 03 48 24 Oct 03 25 Oct 03
26 Oct 03 49 28 Oct 03 29 Oct 03
28 Oct 03 50 29 Oct 03 30 Oct 03
30 Oct 03 51 31 Oct 03 01 Nov 03
30 Oct 03 52 30 Oct 03 01 Nov 03
ALERTS:
01 Oct 03: Flare Alert
14 Oct 03: Geomagnetic
15 Oct 03: Geomagnetic
16 Oct 03: Geomagnetic
19 Oct 03: Flare Alert
20 Oct 03: Flare Alert
21 Oct 03: Geomagnetic
22 Oct 03: Flare Alert
22 Oct 03: Geomagnetic
23 Oct 03: Flare Alert
24 Oct 03: Flare Alert
24 Oct 03: Geomagnetic
25 Oct 03: Geomagnetic
25 Oct 03: Flare Alert
26 Oct 03: Flare Alert
27 Oct 03: Flare Alert
28 Oct 03: Flare Alert
29 Oct 03: Flare Alert
29 Oct 03: Geomagnetic
29 Oct 03: Flare Alert
30 Oct 03: Geomagnetic
30 Oct 03: Flare Alert
31 Oct 03: Geomagnetic
31 Oct 03: Flare Alert
SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
22 Oct 03: SWF Alert (0329-1209 UT)
23 Oct 03: SWF Alert (0234-0249 UT)
24 Oct 03: SWF Alert (0219-0434 UT)
24 Oct 03: SWF Alert (0504-0539 UT)
26 Oct 03: SWF Alert (0609-1059 UT)
29 Oct 03: SWF Alert (0444-0814 UT)
29-30 Oct 03: SWF Alert (2044-0109 UT) Major Fadeout
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