[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - May 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 4 10:33:19 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - MAY 2003
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES
SOLAR AUST AUST
Day 10 cm flux A-INDEX T INDEX
01-May 149 25 96
02-May 144 17 92
03-May 148 8 86
04-May 142 5 82
05-May 129 10 87
06-May 129 20 87
07-May 110 27 78
08-May 101 28 61
09-May 97 22 63
10-May 93 23 63
11-May 92 17 58
12-May 94 16 47
13-May 96 16 53
14-May 96 19 54
15-May 99 17 64
16-May 103 8 70
17-May 102 7 72
18-May 109 7 63
19-May 115 8 83
20-May 124 9 82
21-May 119 15 80
22-May 118 17 101
23-May 118 16 84
24-May 117 17 75
25-May 121 11 72
26-May 125 13 82
27-May 129 19 78
28-May 130 24 83
29-May 138 61 73
30-May 117 30 24
31-May 113 12 66
10 CM SUNSPOT SUNSPOT AUST AUST No of
FLUX NUMBER NUMBER A-INDEX T INDEX FLARES
Monthly Monthly Yearly Monthly Monthly >M1.0
Month Average Average Average Average Average
May 02 178.4 120.8 108.8 8.4 133.0 16
Jun 02 148.8 88.5 106.2 6.2 113.9 4
Jul 02 174.5 99.9 102.7 8.8 108.6 35
Aug 02 184.0 116.4 98.7 11.2 133.5 45
Sep 02 175.9 109.3 94.6 9.8 137.7 12
Oct 02 167.0 97.5 90.5 15.7 119.7 22
Nov 02 168.7 95.0 85.3 14.5 121.1 11
Dec 02 157.2 81.6 81.4p 13.0 124.5 10
Jan 03 144.0 79.5 78.6p 12.9 111.6 7
Feb 03 125.0 46.2 74.3p 15.7 95.5 3
Mar 03 132.3 61.5 69.5p 15.4 90.9 9
Apr 03 126.5 60.0 65.3p 14.7 88.7 15
May 03 116.7 55.2 61.4p 17.5 72.9 12
Monthly T indices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1992 153 172 155 134 95 80 88 66 68 66 84 90
1993 74 77 79 63 63 64 62 50 37 40 34 43
1994 57 41 42 26 15 14 23 18 20 20 20 20
1995 24 33 23 13 3 11 13 10 13 9 13 7
1996 12 7 4 2 5 2 3 4 4 3 11 15
1997 14 11 10 8 11 5 9 17 32 27 28 38
1998 40 41 43 56 46 56 76 75 86 70 74 93
1999 94 81 89 77 98 124 124 105 89 92 123 113
2000 108 120 157 152 129 128 148 139 123 129 135 141
2001 130 131 135 123 112 132* 112 113 142 151* 156* 159*
2002 169* 172* 165* 137* 128 119 111 127* 130* 114 105* 115*
2003 113* 86* 85* 85* 73^ 68^ 62^ 57^ 53^ 49^ 46^ 44^
2004 42^ 40^ 39^ 37^ 35^ 33^ 31^ 29^ 28^ 26^ 24^ 23^
2005 21^ 20^ 19^ 17^ 16^ 15^ 14^ 13^ 12^ 11^ 10^ 9^
2006 8^ 8^ 7^ 6^ 6^ 5^ 5^ 5^ 4^ 4^ 4^ 4^
2007 4^ 5^ 5^ 6^ 7^ 8^ 9^ 11^ 13^ 16^ 18^ 21^
2008 25^ 28^ 32^ 36^ 41^ 45^ 50^ 54^ 59^ 64^ 68^ 73^
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.
===============================================================================
2. FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS
DATE CLASS M CLASS X FLARE FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
FLARES FLARES MAX DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
02 May 03 M1.0/SF 0308UT
26 May 03 M1.9/1F 0550UT
26 May 03 M1.0 1637UT
27 May 03 M1.4/1F 0306UT
27 May 03 M1.6/1F 0626UT
27 May 03 X1.3 2307UT 2256-2313UT
28 May 03 X3.6 0027UT 0017-0039UT 0017-0039UT
28 May 03 X1.3 /2B 2307UT 2256-2313UT
29 May 03 X1.2 /2B 0105UT 0051-0112UT
29 May 03 M1.5/1F 0218UT
29 May 03 M2.8/1N 1937UT
31 May 03 M9.3/2B 0224UT 0213-0240UT
10Mev Proton/PCA Event
Began Ended
29 05 2003 0155UT 30 05 2003 0150UT
31 05 2003 0505UT 31 05 2003 1505UT
2.1 Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity was at predominately low levels until 26 May. Solar
region 365 became flare active after this date, contributing most of the flare
activity for the month with numerous M class flare events, including the M9 on
31 May, and a total of 4 X class events during the interval 27-29 May. Strong
shortwave fadeouts were observed in the Australian region in association with these
X class flares. Solar proton events and coronal mass ejections were also observed
following some of these strong flares. Solar region 365 rotated onto the solar disk on
20 May and rotated off disk on 01 Jun. This region is due for possible return on 15 Jun.
A total of 12 flares was observed for the month, 8 M class and 4 X class events.
The largest flare for the month was an X3.6 on May 28. An Auroral observation was reported
on 29 May at around 1300 UT, south of Perth, Western Australia, following the arrival
of one of the mass ejections.
===============================================================================
3. GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
DATE COMMENTS
01 May 03: Quiet to Minor Storm
06-15 May 03: Active conditions, with minor storm periods 09-10 May.
A possible 25nT sudden impulse was observed in IPS magnetometer data at 0519UT on 09 May.
21-28 May 03: Active conditions, with minor storm periods 27-28 May.
29 May 03: Initially unsettled, Severe storm levels second half of UT day. No clear impulse at
storm onset.
30 May 03: Quiet to Minor Storm
A 23nT sudden impulse was observed in IPS magnetometer data at 1625UT on 30 May.
Two broad coronal hole associated periods of activity were observed this month, the first from
06-15 May and the second from 21-28 May. Strong coronal mass ejection associated geomagnetic
activity was observed 29 and 30 May, with severe storm levels on 29 May. The highest local
A index for the month was 61 observed on 29 May.
===============================================================================
4. IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
5 May 03: MUFs at Darwin enhanced 50-100% 04-10UT.
11-13 May 03: depressed 15% southern Aus/NZ region
17 May 03: MUFs at Darwin enhanced 50-100% 04-10UT.
29 May 03: MUFs at Darwin enhanced 50-100% 04-10UT.
30 May 03: depressed 20-30% southern Aus/NZ region.
The deepest ionospheric depression for the month was observed
on 30 May, following coronal mass ejection induced geomagnetic activity.
A much milder depression was observed 11-13 May, in association with
coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity. Also, transpolar HF circuits may
have experienced increased absorption on 29 and 31 May due to solar
proton events following strong flare activity on these days. The cause of
teh strong MUF enhancements at Darwin 4-10UT is unclear.
===============================================================================
5. IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED
WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
02 May 03 32 03 May 03 05 May 03
07 May 03 33 08 May 03 08 May 03
08 May 03 34 09 May 03 09 May 03
09 May 03 35 10 May 03 10 May 03
10 May 03 36 11 May 03 11 May 03
11 May 03 37 12 May 03 14 May 03
28 May 03 38 28 May 03 30 May 03
28 May 03 39 28 May 03 30 May 03
29 May 03 40 30 May 03 30 May 03
30 May 03 41 31 May 03 31 May 03
GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
02 May 03 16 05 May 03 07 May 03
09 May 03 17 10 May 03 12 May 03
12 May 03 18 13 May 03 15 May 03
28 May 03 19 28 May 03 28 May 03
29 May 03 20 30 May 03 31 May 03
31 May 03 21 02 Jun 03 04 Jun 03
ALERTS:
01 May 03: Geomagnetic
02 May 03: Flare Alert
02 May 03: Geomagnetic
06 May 03: Geomagnetic
07 May 03: Geomagnetic
08 May 03: Geomagnetic
09 May 03: Geomagnetic
10 May 03: Geomagnetic
11 May 03: Geomagnetic
12 May 03: Geomagnetic
19 May 03: Flare Alert
26 May 03: Flare Alert
27 May 03: Flare Alert
27 May 03: Geomagnetic
28 May 03: Geomagnetic
28 May 03: Flare Alert
29 May 03: Flare Alert
29 May 03: Geomagnetic
29 May 03: Flare Alert
30 May 03: Geomagnetic
31 May 03: Geomagnetic
31 May 03: Flare Alert
SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
28 May 03: SWF Alert (0019-0254 UT)
29 May 03: SWF Alert (0054-0144 UT)
31 May 03: SWF Alert (0214-0324 UT)
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