[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - June 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 7 10:00:30 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - JUNE 2003
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1.     SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES

             SOLAR    AUST       AUST
Day      10 cm flux   A-INDEX   T INDEX
01-Jun         112       12       57
02-Jun         121       23       81
03-Jun         115       18       65
04-Jun         106       15       69
05-Jun         114       11       55
06-Jun         126       11       67
07-Jun         133       14       68
08-Jun         153       19       69
09-Jun         158       20       84
10-Jun         177       13       79
11-Jun         193        9       89
12-Jun         164        4       84
13-Jun         151        6       84
14-Jun         134       22       84
15-Jun         129       17       86
16-Jun         123       26       80
17-Jun         122       25       84
18-Jun         120       29       74
19-Jun         123       12       62
20-Jun         117       10       62
21-Jun         115       18       72
22-Jun         110       13       67
23-Jun         114       13       67
24-Jun         115       20       92
25-Jun         116       16       72
26-Jun         119       17       80
27-Jun         124       19       92
28-Jun         124       23       85
29-Jun         127       18       78
30-Jun         128       15       75


          10 CM    SUNSPOT  SUNSPOT  AUST     AUST     No of
          FLUX     NUMBER   NUMBER   A-INDEX  T INDEX  FLARES
          Monthly  Monthly  Yearly   Monthly  Monthly  >M1.0 
Month     Average  Average  Average  Average  Average 
Jun 02     148.8     88.5    106.2      6.2    113.9    4
Jul 02     174.5     99.9    102.7      8.8    108.6   35
Aug 02     184.0    116.4     98.7     11.2    133.5   45
Sep 02     175.9    109.3     94.6      9.8    137.7   12
Oct 02     167.0     97.5     90.5     15.7    119.7   22
Nov 02     168.7     95.0     85.3     14.5    121.1   11
Dec 02     157.2     81.6     82.1     13.0    124.5   10
Jan 03     144.0     79.5     79.9p    12.9    111.6    7
Feb 03     125.0     46.2     75.7p    15.7     95.5    3
Mar 03     132.3     61.5     70.9p    15.4     90.9    9
Apr 03     126.5     60.0     66.6p    14.7     88.7   15
May 03     116.7     55.2     62.8p    17.5     72.9   12
Jun 03     129.4     77.4     59.5p    16.3     75.4   42


               Monthly T indices
       Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
1992   153   172   155   134    95    80    88    66    68    66    84    90  
1993    74    77    79    63    63    64    62    50    37    40    34    43  
1994    57*   41*   42*   26*   15*   14*   23*   18*   20*   20*   20*   20  
1995    24    33    23    13     3    11    13    10    13     9    13     7  
1996    12     7     4     2     5     2     3     4     4     3    11    15  
1997    14    11    10     8    11     5     9    17    32    27    28    38  
1998    40    41    43    56    46    56    76    75    86    70    74    93  
1999    94    81    89    77    98   124   124   105    89    92   123   113  
2000   108*  120   157   152   129   130*  146*  138*  123*  129*  136*  141* 
2001   130   131   135   123   112   132   112   113*  142   151   156*  162* 
2002   169*  172*  165   137   128   119   111   127   130   112*  105   115* 
2003   109*   92*   83*   83*   74^   68^   63^   58^   54^   50^   47^   45^ 
2004    43^   41^   39^   37^   35^   33^   31^   29^   28^   26^   24^   23^ 
2005    21^   20^   19^   17^   16^   15^   14^   13^   12^   11^   10^    9^ 
2006     8^    8^    7^    6^    6^    5^    5^    5^    4^    4^    4^    4^ 
2007     4^    5^    5^    6^    7^    8^    9^   11^   13^   16^   18^   21^ 
2008    25^   28^   32^   36^   41^   45^   50^   54^   59^   64^   68^   73^ 
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.

The IPS Monthly T-index is derived from the observed monthly 
median values of foF2 for each hour at up to 40 ionospheric 
stations worldwide.  These records become available from IPS 
stations in Australia very soon after each month, but the 
majority are received up to one year later.  This means that 
the exact observed value of the monthly T-index is not 
available until some months later.
 
The predicted smoothed monthly T-indices are computed by 
using a statistical analysis of the observed monthly T-indices 
for all solar cycles since 1938.  The IPS T-indices may not be 
updated each month but only when sufficient new 
data becomes available.


===============================================================================

2.     FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS 
Solar activity was at mostly moderate to high levels until
17 June, afterwhich activity decreased to low levels. A total
of 37 M class flares and five X class flares were observed.
The X class events were observed on 9,10,11 and 15 Jun. 
The largest flare for the month was an X1.7 at 2139UT on
9 Jun. The weak proton event observed over 18-19 June, is
believed associated with the M6.8 flare on 17 June.


2.1     Comments on Solar Activity.
DATE             CLASS M    CLASS X     FLARE     FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
                 FLARES     FLARES      MAX       DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
01 Jun 03	 M1.4               	0306UT
01 Jun 03	 M1.0               	1250UT
01 Jun 03	 M1.4/SF            	1652UT
01 Jun 03	 M1.0               	2105UT
02 Jun 03	 M6.5/SF            	0022UT    0007-0043UT
02 Jun 03	 M3.9/SF            	0837UT    0812-0852UT
02 Jun 03	 M1.8/SF            	1733UT
06 Jun 03	 M1.0/1F            	2338UT
08 Jun 03	 M4.0/2N            	1611UT    1605-1615UT
09 Jun 03	 M4.7/1N            	1128UT    1121-1133UT
09 Jun 03	            X1.7        2139UT    2131-2143UT
09 Jun 03	 M1.4               	2231UT
10 Jun 03	 M2.0/1N            	0254UT
10 Jun 03	 M2.7/1N            	0837UT
10 Jun 03	 M5.1/2N            	1112UT    1055-1115UT
10 Jun 03	 M2.2               	1300UT
10 Jun 03	 M2.2/SF            	1436UT
10 Jun 03	 M1.0/SF            	1624UT
10 Jun 03	 M3.9               	1630UT    1628-1632UT
10 Jun 03	 M5.6               	1815UT    1808-1826UT
10 Jun 03	            X1.3        0002UT    2319-0012UT
11 Jun 03	 M1.8/SF            	0306UT
11 Jun 03	 M1.1/SF            	1033UT
11 Jun 03	 M1.4               	1109UT
11 Jun 03	 M2.7               	1321UT
11 Jun 03	 M3.7/SF            	1527UT    1437-1547UT
11 Jun 03	 M4.5               	1636UT    1621-1650UT
11 Jun 03	 M1.8/1F            	1743UT
11 Jun 03	            X1.6 /1N    2014UT    2001-2027UT
11 Jun 03	 M2.9/SF            	2151UT
11 Jun 03	            X1.3 /2B    0002UT    2319-0012UT
12 Jun 03	 M7.3/1F            	0130UT    0104-0152UT
12 Jun 03	 M1.0/SF            	1403UT
12 Jun 03	 M1.1/SF            	1712UT
12 Jun 03	 M2.6               	2127UT
13 Jun 03	 M3.1               	0204UT    0154-0213UT
13 Jun 03	 M1.7/SF            	0437UT
13 Jun 03	 M1.8/SF            	0645UT
14 Jun 03	 M1.5               	0609UT
15 Jun 03	            X1.3 /SF    2356UT    2325-0025UT
16 Jun 03	 M1.7/SF            	1200UT
17 Jun 03	 M6.8               	2255UT    2227-2312UT


       10Mev Proton/PCA Event 
     Began                  Ended
18 06 2003 2050UT      19 06 2003 1540UT


===============================================================================

3.     GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)

DATE                     COMMENTS
01-04 Jun 03: Active periods
07-10 Jun 03: Active periods
14-16 Jun 03: Active to minor storm periods
17-19 Jun 03: Active, with Minor to major storm periods   
21-30 Jun 03: Active periods

Broad periods of elevated background geomagnetic 
activity continued this month. This activity is
associated with coronal hole high speed wind 
streams. A weak shock was observed in the solar 
wind at approximately 0429UT on 18 Jun. This shock 
was most likely from the X1 flare late on 15 Jun,
and was superimposed on an already fast background 
solar wind from a coronal hole high speed
wind stream. The most disturbed day of the month 
was 18 Jun, when the local A index reached 29.



===============================================================================

4.     IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)
   05 Jun 03: Depressed 15% local day, spread F local night southern Aus region
09-10 Jun 03: Spread F local night hours southern Aus region
17-18 Jun 03: Depressed 15-25% local day, spread F local night southern Aus region

The strongest depression for the month was observed during the period
17-18 Jun when southern region MUFs were depressed 15-25% during
local daylight hours. This depression response was in association with 
geomagnetic activity induced from both a weak coronal mass ejection 
arrival and a coronal hole high speed wind stream. Northern Australian 
region MUFs remained near or above predicted monthly values.  Mild 
depressions and local night degradations were observed on other days 
also in association with coronal hole high speed wind stream induced 
geomagnetic activity.

===============================================================================

5.     IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED

WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
01 Jun 03	42	02 Jun 03	04 Jun 03
02 Jun 03	43	03 Jun 03	05 Jun 03
12 Jun 03	44	12 Jun 03	14 Jun 03
16 Jun 03	45	16 Jun 03	18 Jun 03
17 Jun 03	46	17 Jun 03	17 Jun 03
18 Jun 03	47	19 Jun 03	21 Jun 03
18 Jun 03	48	19 Jun 03	21 Jun 03
18 Jun 03	49	19 Jun 03	19 Jun 03
26 Jun 03	50	27 Jun 03	29 Jun 03



GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
16 Jun 03	22	16 Jun 03	16 Jun 03
17 Jun 03	23	17 Jun 03	17 Jun 03
18 Jun 03	24	19 Jun 03	21 Jun 03
18 Jun 03	25	19 Jun 03	21 Jun 03
23 Jun 03	26	23 Jun 03	25 Jun 03
25 Jun 03	27	28 Jun 03	30 Jun 03


ALERTS: 
01 Jun 03: Flare Alert
01 Jun 03: Geomagnetic
02 Jun 03: Flare Alert
02 Jun 03: Geomagnetic
02 Jun 03: Flare Alert
03 Jun 03: Geomagnetic
06 Jun 03: Flare Alert
08 Jun 03: Flare Alert
09 Jun 03: Flare Alert
09 Jun 03: Geomagnetic
10 Jun 03: Flare Alert
11 Jun 03: Flare Alert
12 Jun 03: Flare Alert
13 Jun 03: Flare Alert
15 Jun 03: Flare Alert
16 Jun 03: Flare Alert
16 Jun 03: Geomagnetic
17 Jun 03: Geomagnetic
18 Jun 03: Flare Alert
18 Jun 03: Geomagnetic
19 Jun 03: Geomagnetic
24 Jun 03: Geomagnetic
26 Jun 03: Geomagnetic
28 Jun 03: Geomagnetic
30 Jun 03: Geomagnetic


SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE	SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
12 Jun 03: SWF Alert (0104-0314 UT)


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