[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - January 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 4 10:14:29 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - JANUARY 2003
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1.     SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES

              SOLAR    AUST       AUST
Day       10 cm flux   A-INDEX   T INDEX
01-Jan         115        7      117
02-Jan         118        7      126
03-Jan         138       20      100
04-Jan         143       15       57
05-Jan         148       12      111
06-Jan         162        5      114
07-Jan         163        7      128
08-Jan         174        6      129
09-Jan         183        5      142
10-Jan         185       13      145
11-Jan         189        8       92
12-Jan         173       10       77
13-Jan         172        7      119
14-Jan         164       13      127
15-Jan         150       10      141
16-Jan         145        6      131
17-Jan         142       13      124
18-Jan         137       16      111
19-Jan         130       18      111
20-Jan         138       18      102
21-Jan         134       15      124
22-Jan         130       18      135
23-Jan         136       18       99
24-Jan         130       19      118
25-Jan         129       20      108
26-Jan         125       17       87
27-Jan         121       14       82
28-Jan         126       11      112
29-Jan         124       16      125
30-Jan         121       22       97
31-Jan         120       14       69


          10 CM    SUNSPOT  SUNSPOT  AUST     AUST     No of
          FLUX     NUMBER   NUMBER   A-INDEX  T INDEX  FLARES
          Monthly  Monthly  Yearly   Monthly  Monthly  >M1.0 
Month     Average  Average  Average  Average  Average 
Jan 02     226.8    113.9    113.5     10.9    155.7   21
Feb 02     205.2    108.0    114.7     11.1    154.4   19
Mar 02     179.5     98.1    113.3     10.4    165.1   15
Apr 02     189.5    120.4    110.4     11.2    143.2   17
May 02     178.4    120.8    108.8      8.4    133.0   16
Jun 02     148.8     88.5    106.2      6.2    113.9    4
Jul 02     174.5     99.9    102.7      8.8    108.6   35
Aug 02     184.0    116.4     99.7p    11.2    133.5   45
Sep 02     175.9    109.3     97.0p     9.8    137.7   12
Oct 02     167.0     97.5     93.5p    15.7    119.7   22
Nov 02     168.7     95.0     88.8p    14.5    121.1   11
Dec 02     157.2     81.6     85.3p    13.0    124.5   10
Jan 03     144.0     79.5     82.4p    12.9    111.6    7


               Monthly T indices
       Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
1992   153   172   155   134    95    80    88    66    68    66    84    90  
1993    74    77    79    63    63    64    62    50    37    40    34    43  
1994    57    41    42    26    15    14    23    18    20    20    20    20  
1995    24    33    23    13     3    11    13    10    13     9    13     7  
1996    12     7     4     2     5     2     3     4     4     3    11    15  
1997    14    11    10     8    11     5     9    17    32    27    28    38  
1998    40    41    43    56    46    56    76    75    86    70    74    93  
1999    94    81    89    77    98   124   124   105    89    92   123   113  
2000   108   120   157   152   129   128   148   139   123   129   135   141  
2001   129   130*  135*  123   111   131   111   112   143   151   154   159  
2002   169   172   167   137   128*  119*  111*  132*  138*  120*  113*  120* 
2003    94^   88^   81^   75^   69^   63^   58^   55^   52^   50^   47^   45^ 
2004    43^   41^   39^   37^   35^   33^   31^   29^   28^   26^   24^   23^ 
2005    21^   20^   19^   17^   16^   15^   14^   13^   12^   11^   10^    9^ 
2006     8^    8^    7^    6^    6^    5^    5^    5^    4^    4^    4^    4^ 
2007     4^    5^    5^    6^    7^    8^    9^   11^   13^   16^   18^   21^ 
2008    25^   28^   32^   36^   41^   45^   50^   54^   59^   64^   68^   73^ 
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.

===============================================================================

2.     FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS 
DATE             CLASS M    CLASS X     FLARE     FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
                 FLARES     FLARES      MAX       DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
07 Jan 03	 M1.0/1F            	0750UT
07 Jan 03	 M4.9/SF            	2333UT    2325-2340UT
21 Jan 03	 M1.9               	1526UT
22 Jan 03	 M1.2/1F            	0444UT
23 Jan 03	 M1.0               	0448UT
23 Jan 03	 M2.5/1N            	1243UT
24 Jan 03	 M1.9/1N            	0327UT

2.1     Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity was at predominately low levels this month. The largest
flare for the month was an M4.9 flare at 2333UT on 07 Jan. Only 7
M class events were observed this month. No X class events were
observed.


===============================================================================

3.     GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)

DATE                     COMMENTS
03-04 Jan 03:     Quiet to Active.
18-22 Jan 03:     Unsettled to Active.
23-25 Jan 03:     Unsettled to active with isolated periods of minor storm activity.
   26 Jan 03:     Quiet to active.
   29 Jan 03:     Quiet to Active.
   30 Jan 03:     Unsettled to Minor Storm levels.

Coronal holes were the main origin of geomagnetic activity this month, with
a broad period of elevated activity extending from 19 to 26 Jan.  The most 
disturbed day was on 30 Jan with a local A index of 22.

===============================================================================

4.     IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)
04 Jan 03: Northern region MUFs depressed 20%
	   Southern region MUFs depressed 12%
11 Jan 03: Western region MUFs depressed 20%
12 Jan 03: Northern region MUFs depressed 23%
18 Jan 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 30% 00-05UT
26 Jan 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 18% 00-09UT
27 Jan 03: Northern region MUFs depressed 27%
31 Jan 03: Northern region MUFs depressed 17%

The above periods of ionospheric depressions mostly
followed coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity.
Depressed conditions on 11-12 Jan did not appear to be
asociated with any geomagnetic activity. In particular 
MUFs at Darwin in Northern Australia were depressed by 
up to 40% in the interval 03-07UT during these periods.

===============================================================================

5.     IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED

WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
03 Jan 03	01	04 Jan 03	04 Jan 03
11 Jan 03	02	11 Jan 03	11 Jan 03
23 Jan 03	03	23 Jan 03	25 Jan 03
30 Jan 03	04	31 Jan 03	31 Jan 03


GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
17 Jan 03	01	18 Jan 03	20 Jan 03
21 Jan 03	02	23 Jan 03	24 Jan 03


ALERTS: 
03 Jan 03: Geomagnetic
07 Jan 03: Flare Alert
19 Jan 03: Geomagnetic
21 Jan 03: Flare Alert
22 Jan 03: Geomagnetic
23 Jan 03: Flare Alert
24 Jan 03: Flare Alert
30 Jan 03: Geomagnetic


SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE	SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
08 Jan 03: SWF Alert (2329-0009 UT)
24 Jan 03: SWF Alert (0314-0344 UT)


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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