[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - November 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 2 09:43:14 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - NOVEMBER 2003
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1.     SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES

             SOLAR    AUST       AUST
Day      10 cm flux   A-INDEX   T INDEX
01-Nov         210       18       88
02-Nov         190       15       63
03-Nov         167       10       66
04-Nov         168       31      101
05-Nov         114        6       99
06-Nov          98       11       87
07-Nov          91        7       94
08-Nov          93       11       90
09-Nov          93       19       72
10-Nov          95       22       33
11-Nov          96       34       24
12-Nov          99       19       19
13-Nov         102       33       27
14-Nov          99       24       -1
15-Nov          98       32       35
16-Nov         104       31       40
17-Nov         121       21       50
18-Nov         144       16       53
19-Nov         155        9       93
20-Nov         175       85       48
21-Nov         177       43      -45
22-Nov         176       21       96
23-Nov         178       17       54
24-Nov         177       11       95
25-Nov         171       16       91
26-Nov         171        7      114
27-Nov         175        6      120
28-Nov         168        9      116
29-Nov         166        6      100
30-Nov         153       14      103


          10 CM    SUNSPOT  SUNSPOT  AUST     AUST     No of
          FLUX     NUMBER   NUMBER   A-INDEX  T INDEX  FLARES
          Monthly  Monthly  Yearly   Monthly  Monthly  >M1.0 
Month     Average  Average  Average  Average  Average 
Nov 02     168.7     95.0     85.3     14.5    121.1   11
Dec 02     157.2     81.6     82.1     13.0    124.5   10
Jan 03     144.0     79.5     81.0     12.9    111.6    7
Feb 03     125.0     46.2     78.6     15.7     95.5    3
Mar 03     132.3     61.5     74.2     15.4     90.9    9
Apr 03     126.5     60.0     70.4     14.7     88.7   15
May 03     116.7     55.2     67.9     17.5     72.9   12
Jun 03     129.4     77.4     65.8p    16.3     75.4   43
Jul 03     127.8     85.0     63.9p    13.3     76.7    7
Aug 03     122.1     72.7     63.3p    16.2     68.4    4
Sep 03     112.3     48.8     63.4p    14.5     67.0    1
Oct 03     153.1     65.6     62.9p    23.6     66.6   45
Nov 03     140.8     67.2     62.4p    20.1     70.6   29


               Monthly T indices
       Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
1992   153   172   155   134    95    80    88    66    68    66    84    90  
1993    74    77    79    63    63    64    62    50    37    40    34    43  
1994    57    41    42    26    15    14    23    18    20    20    20    20  
1995    24    33    23    13     3    11    13    10    13     9    13     7  
1996    12     7     4     2     5     2     3     4     4     3    11    15  
1997    14    11    10     8    11     5     9    17    32    27    28    38  
1998    40    41    43    56    46    56    76    75    86    70    74    93  
1999    94    81    89    77    98   124   124   105    89    92   123   113  
2000   108   120   157   152   129   130   146   138   123   129   136   141  
2001   130   131   135   123   112   132   112   113   144   151   156   162  
2002   174   174   167   139   130   123   115*  126*  129   112   109   118  
2003   112    92    82*   73*   64*   71*   73*   62*   57*   64*   53^   50^ 
2004    47^   44^   41^   38^   35^   33^   31^   29^   28^   26^   24^   23^ 
2005    21^   20^   19^   17^   16^   15^   14^   13^   12^   11^   10^    9^ 
2006     8^    8^    7^    6^    6^    5^    5^    5^    4^    4^    4^    4^ 
2007     4^    5^    5^    6^    7^    8^    9^   11^   13^   16^   18^   21^ 
2008    25^   28^   32^   36^   41^   45^   50^   54^   59^   64^   68^   73^ 
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.

The IPS Monthly T-index is derived from the observed monthly 
median values of foF2 for each hour at up to 40 ionospheric 
stations worldwide.  These records become available from IPS 
stations in Australia very soon after each month, but the 
majority are received up to one year later.  This means that 
the exact observed value of the monthly T-index is not 
available until some months later.
 
The predicted smoothed monthly T-indices are computed by 
using a statistical analysis of the observed monthly T-indices 
for all solar cycles since 1938.  The IPS T-indices may not be 
updated each month but only when sufficient new 
data becomes available.


===============================================================================

2.     FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS 
DATE             CLASS M    CLASS X     FLARE     FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
                 FLARES     FLARES      MAX       DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
01 Nov 03	 M1.3               	0852UT
01 Nov 03	 M1.1/SF            	1751UT
01 Nov 03	 M3.2/1N            	2238UT    2226-2249UT
02 Nov 03	 M1.8               	1247UT
02 Nov 03	            X8.3 /2B    1725UT    1703-1739UT    1703-1739UT
02 Nov 03	 M3.2/1N            	2238UT    2226-2249UT
03 Nov 03	            X2.7 /2B    0130UT    0109-0145UT
03 Nov 03	            X3.9 /2F    0955UT    0943-1019UT    0943-1019UT
03 Nov 03	 M3.9/SF            	1532UT    1526-1543UT
04 Nov 03	 M2.6               	0556UT
04 Nov 03	 M3.0               	1022UT    1011-1033UT
04 Nov 03	 M1.1               	1349UT
04 Nov 03	            X17.4 /3B   1953UT    1929-2006UT    1929-2006UT
05 Nov 03	 M1.6/SF            	0241UT
05 Nov 03	 M5.3/SF            	1052UT    1046-1056UT
11 Nov 03	 M1.6/SF            	1351UT
13 Nov 03	 M1.6               	0501UT
13 Nov 03	 M1.4               	0929UT
17 Nov 03	 M1.2               	0134UT
17 Nov 03	 M4.2/1N            	0905UT    0855-0919UT
18 Nov 03	 M1.8               	0139UT
18 Nov 03	 M3.2/2N            	0752UT    0723-0806UT
18 Nov 03	 M3.9               	0831UT    0812-0859UT
18 Nov 03	 M4.5               	1011UT    0923-1101UT
19 Nov 03	 M1.7/1N            	0401UT
20 Nov 03	 M1.4/1N            	0212UT
20 Nov 03	 M9.6/2B            	0747UT    0735-0753UT
20 Nov 03	 M5.8               	2353UT    2342-2358UT
21 Nov 03	 M5.8/2B            	2353UT    2342-2358UT

             10Mev Proton Events
    Begin                        End
01 11 2003 1015UT        01 11 2003 1040UT
02 11 2003 1120UT        04 11 2003 2120UT
04 11 2003 2225UT        07 11 2003 0925UT
22 11 2003 0020UT        22 11 2003 0350UT

2.1     Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity varied from very low to high activity this month. High
solar activity was observed during intervals 2-5 Nov and 20-21 Nov.
These periods of activity were predominately due to the same solar regions.
High activity early in the month was due to continued flaring from
solar regions 484, 486 and 488 which were reported in last months summary.
A total of 29 flares were observed for November, 25 M class flares and 
4 X class flares. The largest flare for the month was an X17.4 flare at 
1953UT on 04 Nov. This flare saturated the GOES xray detector and had an 
estimated magnitude of X28. This flare was from region 486 located on
the solar west limb at the time of the event.  These active regions did 
return to the solar disk later in the month, 484 as region 501 on 13 Nov, 
486 as region 508 and 488 as region 507 on 17/18 Nov. However, activity 
was much less significant, particularly from region 486 (508),  with only 
returning 484 (501) producing significant flare activity. This region 
produced the M9 event on 20 Nov. 

===============================================================================

3.     GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)

DATE                     COMMENTS
   01 Nov 03:     Active periods first half in UT day.
   04 Nov 03:     Major Storm periods observed first half of UT day.
   09 Nov 03:     Unsettled to Active with one minor storm period.
10-14 Nov 03:     Active to minor storm conditions
15-16 Nov 03:     Active to major Storm conditions
17-18 Nov 03:     Unsettled to Active
   20 Nov 03:     Severe storm levels second half of UT day.
   21 Nov 03:     Major Storm first half of UT day.
   22 Nov 03:     Unsettled to active, brief minor storm period.
   23 Nov 03:     Quiet to Active
   25 Nov 03:     Quiet to Active

The strongest disturbed day was observed on 20 Nov with an observed
local A index of 85. This activity is believed associated with M3.2, M3.9 
xray flares and coronal mass ejection(s) observed on 18 Nov. An extended 
period of coronal hole high speed wind stream induced activity was observed 
from 10-18 Nov. In addition a coronal mass ejection may have increased activity 
on 15-16 Nov.



===============================================================================

4.     IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)
12 Nov 03: Southern region MUFs depressed  30%
13 Nov 03: Southern region MUFs depressed  20%
14 Nov 03: Northern region MUFs depressed  40%
	   Southern region MUFs depressed  15%
16 Nov 03: Northern region MUFs depressed  15%
	   Southern region MUFs depressed  15%
18 Nov 03: Southern region MUFs depressed  15%
21 Nov 03: Regional MUFs depressed  40%
23 Nov 03: Southern region MUFs depressed  15%

Ionospheric MUFs were severely depressed, by up to
40%, on 21 Nov. This depression followed coronal
mass ejection induced severe geomagnetic storm activity.
The regional daily T index fell to -45 on this day.
Also, a broad period of lower than normal MUFs was 
observed 10-18Nov due to geomagnetic activity
induced by a solar coronal hole high speed wind stream.
Depressed southern region MUFs on 23 Nov followed 
coronal mass ejection induced geomagnetic activity.
Transpolar HF circuits may have been degraded by
increased absorption during interval 04-07 Nov.



===============================================================================

5.     IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED

WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
03 Nov 03	83	03 Nov 03	05 Nov 03
07 Nov 03	84	11 Nov 03	13 Nov 03
09 Nov 03	85	10 Nov 03	11 Nov 03
14 Nov 03	86	14 Nov 03	15 Nov 03
16 Nov 03	87	16 Nov 03	17 Nov 03
18 Nov 03	88	19 Nov 03	21 Nov 03
21 Nov 03	89	21 Nov 03	21 Nov 03
22 Nov 03	90	22 Nov 03	24 Nov 03
22 Nov 03	91	22 Nov 03	23 Nov 03
23 Nov 03	92	23 Nov 03	23 Nov 03



GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
03 Nov 03	53	04 Nov 03	05 Nov 03
07 Nov 03	54	10 Nov 03	13 Nov 03
19 Nov 03	55	19 Nov 03	21 Nov 03
22 Nov 03	56	22 Nov 03	23 Nov 03


ALERTS: 
01 Nov 03: Flare Alert
01 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
02 Nov 03: Flare Alert
03 Nov 03: Flare Alert
04 Nov 03: Flare Alert
04 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
05 Nov 03: Flare Alert
05 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
06 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
09 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
10 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
11 Nov 03: Flare Alert
11 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
12 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
13 Nov 03: Flare Alert
13 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
14 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
15 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
16 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
17 Nov 03: Flare Alert
18 Nov 03: Flare Alert
19 Nov 03: Flare Alert
20 Nov 03: Flare Alert
20 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
21 Nov 03: Flare Alert
21 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
22 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
26 Nov 03: Flare Alert
27 Nov 03: Flare Alert


SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE	SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
03 Nov 03: SWF Alert (0104-0319 UT)
05 Nov 03: SWF Alert (0239-0249 UT)
21 Nov 03: SWF Alert (2344-0009 UT)


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