[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - July 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 4 13:14:15 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - JULY 2003
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES
SOLAR AUST AUST
Day 10 cm flux A-INDEX T INDEX
01-Jul 131 7 79
02-Jul 135 9 72
03-Jul 132 11 67
04-Jul 140 15 94
05-Jul 142 14 90
06-Jul 130 9 74
07-Jul 133 12 72
08-Jul 131 2 71
09-Jul 126 3 71
10-Jul 123 6 75
11-Jul 122 24 95
12-Jul 122 28 91
13-Jul 127 13 82
14-Jul 127 11 86
15-Jul 126 17 82
16-Jul 133 27 94
17-Jul 139 15 54
18-Jul 140 9 64
19-Jul 146 17 86
20-Jul 157 12 87
21-Jul 156 5 83
22-Jul 153 5 82
23-Jul 144 7 78
24-Jul 125 6 80
25-Jul 112 6 86
26-Jul 103 17 74
27-Jul 102 16 70
28-Jul 103 12 60
29-Jul 100 28 63
30-Jul 99 26 53
31-Jul 102 22 63
10 CM SUNSPOT SUNSPOT AUST AUST No of
FLUX NUMBER NUMBER A-INDEX T INDEX FLARES
Monthly Monthly Yearly Monthly Monthly >M1.0
Month Average Average Average Average Average
Jul 02 174.5 99.9 102.7 8.8 108.6 35
Aug 02 184.0 116.4 98.7 11.2 133.5 45
Sep 02 175.9 109.3 94.6 9.8 137.7 12
Oct 02 167.0 97.5 90.5 15.7 119.7 22
Nov 02 168.7 95.0 85.3 14.5 121.1 11
Dec 02 157.2 81.6 82.1 13.0 124.5 10
Jan 03 144.0 79.5 81.0 12.9 111.6 7
Feb 03 125.0 46.2 77.9p 15.7 95.5 3
Mar 03 132.3 61.5 73.1p 15.4 90.9 9
Apr 03 126.5 60.0 68.8p 14.7 88.7 15
May 03 116.7 55.2 65.0p 17.5 72.9 12
Jun 03 129.4 77.4 61.6p 16.3 75.4 43
Jul 03 127.8 85.0 58.8p 13.3 76.7 7
Monthly T indices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1992 153 172 155 134 95 80 88 66 68 66 84 90
1993 74 77 79 63 63 64 62 50 37 40 34 43
1994 57 41 42 26 15 14 23 18 20 20 20 20
1995 24 33 23 13 3 11 13 10 13 9 13 7
1996 12 7 4 2 5 2 3 4 4 3 11 15
1997 14 11 10 8 11 5 9 17 32 27 28 38
1998 40 41 43 56 46 56 76 75 86 70 74 93
1999 94 81 89 77 98 124 124 105 89 92 123 113
2000 108 120 157 152 129 130 146 138 123 129 136 141
2001 130 131 135 123 112 132 112 113 144* 151 156 162
2002 169 172 165 137 128 119 111 127 130 112* 105* 115*
2003 110* 92 84* 83* 59* 71* 65^ 60^ 56^ 52^ 49^ 47^
2004 44^ 42^ 40^ 37^ 35^ 33^ 31^ 29^ 28^ 26^ 24^ 23^
2005 21^ 20^ 19^ 17^ 16^ 15^ 14^ 13^ 12^ 11^ 10^ 9^
2006 8^ 8^ 7^ 6^ 6^ 5^ 5^ 5^ 4^ 4^ 4^ 4^
2007 4^ 5^ 5^ 6^ 7^ 8^ 9^ 11^ 13^ 16^ 18^ 21^
2008 25^ 28^ 32^ 36^ 41^ 45^ 50^ 54^ 59^ 64^ 68^ 73^
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.
===============================================================================
2. FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS
DATE CLASS M CLASS X FLARE FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
FLARES FLARES MAX DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
02 Jul 03 M3.0/1F 0728UT 0706-0746UT
06 Jul 03 M2.3/SF 0032UT
09 Jul 03 M2.0/SF 2238UT
10 Jul 03 M3.6 1412UT 1354-1423UT
12 Jul 03 M1.4/SF 1906UT
29 Jul 03 M1.3/1F 0139UT
30 Jul 03 M2.5/1B 0410UT
2.1 Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels during the month.
Flare activity was much reduced when compared to June, with only a
total of 7 M class events observed for the month of July. No X class
events were observed. The largest flare for the month was an M3.6 on Jul 10.
Coronal holes were again a near constant feature on the solar disk.
===============================================================================
3. GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
DATE COMMENTS
03-05 Jul 03: Quiet to Active
11-12 Jul 03: Quiet to Minor Storm
15 Jul 03: Quiet to Active
16 Jul 03: Unsettled to major storm.
17 Jul 03: Mostly unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods.
19-20 Jul 03: Quiet to Active
26-27 Jul 03: Quiet to Active
29 Jul 03: Unsettled to Minor Storm
30-31 Jul 03: Unsettled to Minor Storm
Coronal hole high speed wind streams were again the
source for much of the activity this month. The
most disturbed days of the month were observed
on the 12th and 29th of July, with the regional
A index reaching 28 on both these days.
===============================================================================
4. IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
17 Jul 03: Southern region MUFs depressed -18%
27 Jul 03: Southern region MUFs depressed -15%
Southern Australian and New Zealand regional MUFs
were mildly to moderately depressed on 17 and 27 July.
Northern Australian MUFs remained near predicted monthly
values throughout the month. Also, degraded HF communications
quality was likely for southern Australia/New Zealand regional
HF communicators during local night hours for intervals
3-5, 11-12, 15-20 and 26-31 July.
===============================================================================
5. IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED
WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
04 Jul 03 51 04 Jul 03 06 Jul 03
11 Jul 03 52 11 Jul 03 12 Jul 03
17 Jul 03 53 17 Jul 03 18 Jul 03
27 Jul 03 54 28 Jul 03 29 Jul 03
GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
02 Jul 03 28 03 Jul 03 06 Jul 03
08 Jul 03 29 10 Jul 03 11 Jul 03
11 Jul 03 30 11 Jul 03 12 Jul 03
15 Jul 03 31 15 Jul 03 16 Jul 03
18 Jul 03 32 19 Jul 03 19 Jul 03
26 Jul 03 33 27 Jul 03 29 Jul 03
30 Jul 03 34 30 Jul 03 01 Aug 03
ALERTS:
02 Jul 03: Flare Alert
06 Jul 03: Flare Alert
09 Jul 03: Flare Alert
10 Jul 03: Flare Alert
11 Jul 03: Geomagnetic
12 Jul 03: Geomagnetic
12 Jul 03: Flare Alert
13 Jul 03: Geomagnetic
16 Jul 03: Geomagnetic
17 Jul 03: Flare Alert
17 Jul 03: Geomagnetic
27 Jul 03: Geomagnetic
29 Jul 03: Flare Alert
29 Jul 03: Geomagnetic
30 Jul 03: Flare Alert
30 Jul 03: Geomagnetic
31 Jul 03: Geomagnetic
SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
None Issued.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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