[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - October 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 4 09:44:41 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - OCTOBER 2002
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES
SOLAR AUST AUST
Day 10 cm flux A-INDEX T INDEX
01-Oct 140 33 115
02-Oct 136 19 82
03-Oct 146 26 117
04-Oct 158 33 101
05-Oct 155 19 103
06-Oct 162 8 109
07-Oct 164 22 128
08-Oct 165 17 108
09-Oct 167 12 132
10-Oct 172 11 120
11-Oct 179 8 140
12-Oct 180 4 149
13-Oct 179 4 153
14-Oct 181 14 141
15-Oct 177 19 93
16-Oct 183 12 97
17-Oct 179 12 122
18-Oct 173 13 141
19-Oct 180 16 136
20-Oct 180 9 115
21-Oct 183 7 143
22-Oct 169 12 133
23-Oct 164 9 113
24-Oct 160 28 112
25-Oct 173 22 93
26-Oct 158 19 125
27-Oct 157 22 94
28-Oct 158 15 102
29-Oct 162 12 122
30-Oct 168 17 145
31-Oct 170 13 127
10 CM SUNSPOT SUNSPOT AUST AUST No of
FLUX NUMBER NUMBER A-INDEX T INDEX FLARES
Monthly Monthly Yearly Monthly Monthly >M1.0
Month Average Average Average Average Average
Oct 01 208.2 125.6 114.0 15.8 149.8 36
Nov 01 212.7 106.5 115.6 16.1 156.1 47
Dec 01 235.6 131.8 114.7 12.6 144.7 46
Jan 02 226.8 113.9 113.5 10.9 155.7 21
Feb 02 205.2 108.0 114.7 11.1 154.4 19
Mar 02 179.5 98.1 113.3 10.4 165.1 15
Apr 02 189.5 120.4 110.4 11.2 143.2 17
May 02 178.4 120.8 108.1p 8.4 133.0 16
Jun 02 148.8 88.5 104.6p 6.2 113.9 4
Jul 02 174.5 99.9 100.7p 8.8 108.6 35
Aug 02 184.0 116.4 97.4p 11.2 133.5 45
Sep 02 175.9 109.3 94.7p 9.8 137.7 12
Oct 02 167.0 97.5 91.2p 15.7 119.7 22
Monthly T indices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1992 153 172 155 134 95 80 88 66 68 66 84 90
1993 74 77 79 63 63 64 62 50 37 40 34 43
1994 57 41 42 26 15 14 23 18 20 20 20 20
1995 24 33 23 13 3 11 13 10 13 9 13 7
1996 12 7 4 2 5 2 3 4 4 3 11 15
1997 14 11 10 8 11 5 9 17 32 27 28 38
1998 40 41 43 56 46 56 76 75 86 70 74 93
1999 94 81 89 77 98 124 124 105 89 92 123 113
2000 108 120 157 152 133 128* 148 139 124 130 137 141
2001 129 129* 135* 123 111* 131 111 112 143 151 154 160
2002 167 172* 167* 137* 129* 111* 102 126* 132* 97^ 91^ 86^
2003 82^ 77^ 71^ 66^ 63^ 60^ 57^ 54^ 52^ 49^ 47^ 45^
2004 43^ 41^ 39^ 37^ 35^ 33^ 31^ 29^ 28^ 26^ 24^ 23^
2005 21^ 20^ 19^ 17^ 16^ 15^ 14^ 13^ 12^ 11^ 10^ 9^
2006 8^ 8^ 7^ 6^ 6^ 5^ 5^ 5^ 4^ 4^ 4^ 4^
2007 4^ 5^ 5^ 6^ 7^ 8^ 9^ 11^ 13^ 16^ 18^ 21^
2008 25^ 28^ 32^ 36^ 41^ 45^ 50^ 54^ 59^ 64^ 68^ 73^
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.
The IPS Monthly T-index is derived from the observed monthly
median values of foF2 for each hour at up to 40 ionospheric
stations worldwide. These records become available from IPS
stations in Australia very soon after each month, but the
majority are received up to one year later. This means that
the exact observed value of the monthly T-index is not
available until some months later.
The predicted smoothed monthly T-indices are computed by
using a statistical analysis of the observed monthly T-indices
for all solar cycles since 1938. The IPS T-indices may not be
updated each month but only when sufficient new
data becomes available.
===============================================================================
2. FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS
DATE CLASS M CLASS X FLARE FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
FLARES FLARES MAX DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
03 Oct 02 M2.1/1N 0221UT
04 Oct 02 M1.0/SF 0043UT
04 Oct 02 M4.0/1N 0538UT 0534-0541UT
04 Oct 02 M3.5/1N 1105UT 1054-1109UT
04 Oct 02 M1.2/1F 1255UT
04 Oct 02 M1.2/SF 1711UT
04 Oct 02 M2.7/SF 2243UT
05 Oct 02 M1.2 1046UT
05 Oct 02 M5.9/1F 2100UT 2042-2108UT
06 Oct 02 M2.4/1N 0451UT
13 Oct 02 M2.2/SF 0010UT
14 Oct 02 M2.2/SF 0010UT
20 Oct 02 M1.8/1F 0045UT
20 Oct 02 M1.5/2N 0339UT
20 Oct 02 M1.2/1N 0514UT
20 Oct 02 M1.8/1B 1428UT
22 Oct 02 M1.0/SF 1535UT
25 Oct 02 M1.5/1F 1747UT
28 Oct 02 M1.7/1N 1205UT
29 Oct 02 M1.1/SF 0320UT
31 Oct 02 M1.1 0926UT
31 Oct 02 X1.2 1652UT 1647-1655UT
2.1 Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity was at mostly low to moderate levels during the month
of October. High activity was observed on 4,5 and 31 Oct. A total
of 22 xray flares were observed during the month, 21 M class events and
1 X class event. The X1 flare on 31 Oct was the largest flare for
the month.
===============================================================================
3. GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
DATE COMMENTS
01 Oct 02: Major Storm periods, cause unknown.
02-05 Oct 02: Minor storm periods. A weak sudden impulse of 8nT was observed at
2253UT on 02 Oct and another weak impulse of 21nT was observed in
IPS magnetometer data at 0644UT on 03 Oct. Periods of southward IMF
extended activity.
07-08 Oct 02: Unsettled to Active.
15 Oct 02: Unsettled to Active.
24-28 Oct 02: Minor Storm periods due to coronal hole.
30 Oct 02: Isolated minor storm periods.
The strongest disturbances for the month were observed on 01 and 04 Oct. The local
geomagnetic A index reached 33 on both of these days.
===============================================================================
4. IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
02 Oct 02: depressed 30-40% local day at most sites.
04-05 Oct 02: depressed 15-20% southern region local day.
08 Oct 02: depressed 25% southern region local day.
15-16 Oct 02: depressed 15% southern region local day.
24-25 Oct 02: depressed 25% southern region local day.
27-28 Oct 02: depressed 15-20% southern region local day.
The deepest depression for the month was observed on 02 Oct
with local MUFs depressed by up to 40% during the interval
00-07UT. Southern region MUFs were frequently lower than
normal this month.
===============================================================================
5. IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED
WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
01 Oct 02 48 02 Oct 02 02 Oct 02
04 Oct 02 49 04 Oct 02 04 Oct 02
05 Oct 02 50 05 Oct 02 07 Oct 02
05 Oct 02 51 05 Oct 02 05 Oct 02
06 Oct 02 52 06 Oct 02 06 Oct 02
07 Oct 02 53 08 Oct 02 09 Oct 02
07 Oct 02 54 07 Oct 02 07 Oct 02
08 Oct 02 55 08 Oct 02 09 Oct 02
13 Oct 02 56 13 Oct 02 13 Oct 02
14 Oct 02 57 14 Oct 02 14 Oct 02
15 Oct 02 58 15 Oct 02 15 Oct 02
16 Oct 02 59 16 Oct 02 17 Oct 02
21 Oct 02 60 21 Oct 02 22 Oct 02
24 Oct 02 61 25 Oct 02 25 Oct 02
27 Oct 02 62 27 Oct 02 27 Oct 02
GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
02 Oct 02 33 02 Oct 02 02 Oct 02
04 Oct 02 34 04 Oct 02 04 Oct 02
07 Oct 02 35 08 Oct 02 09 Oct 02
22 Oct 02 36 26 Oct 02 29 Oct 02
24 Oct 02 37 24 Oct 02 29 Oct 02
30 Oct 02 38 03 Nov 02 04 Nov 02
ALERTS:
01 Oct 02: Geomagnetic
02 Oct 02: Geomagnetic
03 Oct 02: Flare Alert
03 Oct 02: Geomagnetic
04 Oct 02: Flare Alert
04 Oct 02: Geomagnetic
05 Oct 02: Geomagnetic
05 Oct 02: Flare Alert
07 Oct 02: Geomagnetic
14 Oct 02: Flare Alert
14 Oct 02: Geomagnetic
15 Oct 02: Geomagnetic
20 Oct 02: Flare Alert
24 Oct 02: Geomagnetic
25 Oct 02: Geomagnetic
25 Oct 02: Flare Alert
26 Oct 02: Geomagnetic
27 Oct 02: Geomagnetic
28 Oct 02: Flare Alert
30 Oct 02: Geomagnetic
31 Oct 02: Flare Alert
SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
29 Oct 02: SWF Alert (0314-0329 UT)
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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