[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - December 1

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 3 11:06:28 EST 2002


SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - DECEMBER 2001
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1.     SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES

                 SOLAR    AUST       AUST
Day         10 cm flux   A-INDEX   T INDEX
01-Dec         221       12      188
02-Dec         245        7      183
03-Dec         235       15      188
04-Dec         233       14      147
05-Dec         237       12      133
06-Dec         247       13      138
07-Dec         226       14      130
08-Dec         221        5      120
09-Dec         224        5      130
10-Dec         219        8      166
11-Dec         221        6      149
12-Dec         237       14      158
13-Dec         220        6      132
14-Dec         217        8      164
15-Dec         218       17      148
16-Dec         209       20      139
17-Dec         203       16      109
18-Dec         212       12      136
19-Dec         208        9      150
20-Dec         221        8      147
21-Dec         234       13      166
22-Dec         243        9      130
23-Dec         255        8      150
24-Dec         275       26      137
25-Dec         259       13       98
26-Dec         268        8      130
27-Dec         275        8      155
28-Dec         263       13      166
29-Dec         264       27      165
30-Dec         247       29      126
31-Dec         246       17      109

          10 CM    SUNSPOT  SUNSPOT  AUST     AUST     No of
          FLUX     NUMBER   NUMBER   A-INDEX  T INDEX  FLARES
          Monthly  Monthly  Yearly   Monthly  Monthly  >M1.0 
Month     Average  Average  Average  Average  Average 
Dec 00     173.0    104.5    112.1      8.2    143.0    7
Jan 01     166.7     95.1    108.8      8.4    139.2    8
Feb 01     147.3     80.1    104.2      7.0    137.2    1
Mar 01     177.7    114.2    104.8     14.0    142.6   36
Apr 01     178.3    108.2    107.6     14.4    129.4   45
May 01     148.7     97.3    108.7      7.1    118.0   11
Jun 01     173.7    134.0    109.8      5.9    135.8   13
Jul 01     131.3     82.2    111.3p     6.5    113.6    2
Aug 01     163.2    106.8    112.4p     8.0    113.3   23
Sep 01     233.3    150.7    112.6p     9.3    146.8   48
Oct 01     208.2    125.6    111.5p    15.8    149.8   36
Nov 01     212.7    106.5    110.9p    16.1    156.1   47
Dec 01     235.6    131.8    109.0p    12.6    144.7   46


               Monthly T indices
       Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
1992   153   172   155   134    95    80    88    66    68    66    84    90  
1993    74    77    79    63    63    64    62    50    37    40    34    43  
1994    57    41    42    26    15    14    23    18    20    20    20    20  
1995    24    33    23    13     3    11    13    10    13     9    13     7  
1996    12     7     4     2     5     2     3     4     4     3    11    15  
1997    14    11    10     8    11     5     9    17    32    27    28    38  
1998    40    41    43    56    46    56    76    75    86    69    74    93  
1999    94    81    89*   77    98   124   124   106    89    91   123*  113  
2000   108*  120   158   154   133   133   147   140   124   130   137   140  
2001   133   133   137   121   113   138*  108   109   138*  146*  135*  112^ 
2002   109^  107^  104^   98^   93^   89^   87^   84^   81^   79^   76^   74^ 
2003    71^   69^   66^   64^   61^   59^   57^   54^   52^   49^   47^   45^ 
2004    43^   41^   39^   37^   35^   33^   31^   29^   28^   26^   24^   23^ 
2005    21^   20^   19^   17^   16^   15^   14^   13^   12^   11^   10^    9^ 
2006     8^    8^    7^    6^    6^    5^    5^    5^    4^    4^    4^    4^ 
2007     4^    5^    5^    6^    7^    8^    9^   11^   13^   16^   18^   21^ 
2008    25^   28^   32^   36^   41^   45^   50^   54^   59^   64^   68^   73^ 
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.

===============================================================================

2.     FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS 
DATE             CLASS M    CLASS X     FLARE     FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
                 FLARES     FLARES      MAX       DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
01 Dec 01	 M2.2/2N            	0651UT
01 Dec 01	 M1.2/SF            	1445UT
01 Dec 01	 M4.8               	1555UT    1500-1628UT
01 Dec 01	 M2.9/SF            	1656UT
01 Dec 01	 M1.5/1F            	1731UT
01 Dec 01	 M1.8/SF            	1749UT
02 Dec 01	 M1.3               	1500UT
02 Dec 01	 M2.0               	2206UT
04 Dec 01	 M1.3               	0546UT
08 Dec 01	 M3.4               	0634UT    0602-0655UT
11 Dec 01	            X2.8 /SF    0808UT    0758-0814UT
11 Dec 01	 M1.3/2N            	1451UT
12 Dec 01	 M3.0/1N            	1911UT    1900-1918UT
12 Dec 01	 M5.6               	2200UT    2141-2218UT
12 Dec 01	 M4.8/1F            	2322UT    2313-2328UT
13 Dec 01	 M1.8/SF            	0640UT
13 Dec 01	            X6.2 /3B    1430UT    1420-1435UT    1420-1435UT
13 Dec 01	 M1.4/1F            	2307UT
14 Dec 01	 M3.5               	0913UT    0840-0953UT
14 Dec 01	 M4.4/2N            	1954UT    1941-2002UT
16 Dec 01	 M1.5/2N            	0124UT
16 Dec 01	 M1.0/1F            	0328UT
19 Dec 01	 M1.3/SF            	1706UT
23 Dec 01	 M1.2/SF            	2336UT
24 Dec 01	 M1.7/1N            	0032UT
24 Dec 01	 M3.5               	1400UT    1350-1410UT
24 Dec 01	 M1.4/1F            	2241UT
25 Dec 01	 M1.2/1F            	0708UT
26 Dec 01	 M7.1/1B            	0540UT    0432-0647UT
26 Dec 01	 M1.8/1F            	1226UT
26 Dec 01	 M1.3/SF            	1718UT
26 Dec 01	 M1.2/SF            	2115UT
27 Dec 01	 M1.4/2N            	0613UT
27 Dec 01	 M1.0/SF            	1133UT
27 Dec 01	 M2.3/2N            	1658UT
28 Dec 01	 M4.7/SF            	0351UT    0342-0356UT
28 Dec 01	 M1.3/SF            	1230UT
28 Dec 01	            X3.4        2045UT    2002-2132UT    2002-2132UT
29 Dec 01	 M2.1               	0411UT
29 Dec 01	 M1.1/1F            	0545UT
29 Dec 01	 M1.8               	0916UT
29 Dec 01	 M9.3/SF            	0945UT    0938-1006UT
29 Dec 01	 M1.4/SF            	1157UT
29 Dec 01	 M3.3               	1647UT    1633-1702UT
29 Dec 01	 M1.8               	2127UT
29 Dec 01	 M2.8/1F            	2256UT

10 MeV Proton Events:
      Began           Ended
26 12 2001 0610UT 28 12 2001 0710UT
28 12 2001 0935UT 28 12 2001 1030UT
29 12 2001 0530UT 29 12 2001 2240UT
30 12 2001 0335UT 30 12 2001 1000UT
Began 30 12 2001 2125UT and remains in progress.


2.1     Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity was at predominately moderate to high levels this month. 
A total of 46 flares was observed, 43 M class events and 3 X class events.
The largest flare for the month was an X6.2 observed at 1430UT on 13 Dec.


===============================================================================

3.     GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)

DATE                     COMMENTS
   03 Dec 01:     Active periods observed late in uT day.
15-17 Dec 01:     Active conditions, with brief minor storm periods.
   21 Dec 01:     Active periods.
   24 Dec 01:     Active to Minor Storm periods.
   29 Dec 01:     Major Storm, following moderate sudden impulse (78nT) observed at
	          0539UT.
   30 Dec 01:     Unsettled to Minor Storm, following weak impulse (20nT) observed at
	          2008UT.
   31 Dec 01:     Active periods.

The most signifiantly disturbed days this month were observed on 24, 29 and 30
Dec, with respective local A indices of 26, 27 and 29. Activity on 24 Dec was
not expected.

===============================================================================

4.     IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)
25 Dec 2001 Southern region MUFs  depressed 15-20% 

MUFS in the region were generally 15% enhanced this month. Depressed
southern region MUFs were observed on 25 Dec following unexpected 
geomagnetic activity on 24 Dec.

===============================================================================

5.     IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED

WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
11 Dec 01	80	12 Dec 01	14 Dec 01
14 Dec 01	81	15 Dec 01	16 Dec 01
14 Dec 01	82	15 Dec 01	17 Dec 01
24 Dec 01	83	25 Dec 01	25 Dec 01
26 Dec 01	84	27 Dec 01	29 Dec 01
27 Dec 01	85	28 Dec 01	28 Dec 01
28 Dec 01	86	29 Dec 01	29 Dec 01
29 Dec 01	87	30 Dec 01	01 Jan 02


GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
11 Dec 01	48	13 Dec 01	15 Dec 01
14 Dec 01	49	15 Dec 01	16 Dec 01
27 Dec 01	50	28 Dec 01	29 Dec 01
30 Dec 01	51	31 Dec 01	31 Dec 01


ALERTS: 
01 Dec 01: Flare Alert
02 Dec 01: Flare Alert
04 Dec 01: Flare Alert
08 Dec 01: Flare Alert
11 Dec 01: Flare Alert
12 Dec 01: Flare Alert
13 Dec 01: Flare Alert
14 Dec 01: Flare Alert
16 Dec 01: Geomagnetic
17 Dec 01: Geomagnetic
24 Dec 01: Geomagnetic
24 Dec 01: Flare Alert
26 Dec 01: Flare Alert
27 Dec 01: Flare Alert
28 Dec 01: Flare Alert
29 Dec 01: Geomagnetic
29 Dec 01: Flare Alert
30 Dec 01: Geomagnetic
31 Dec 01: Geomagnetic


SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE	SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
11 Dec 01: SWF Alert (0759-0839 UT)
12 Dec 01: SWF Alert (2314-2334 UT)
26 Dec 01: SWF Alert (0444-0929 UT)
28 Dec 01: SWF Alert (0344-0404 UT)


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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