[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - July 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 5 08:31:18 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - JULY 2002
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES
SOLAR AUST AUST
Day 10 cm flux A-INDEX T INDEX
01-Jul 147 11 108
02-Jul 149 4 103
03-Jul 173 5 103
04-Jul 146 2 108
05-Jul 139 9 118
06-Jul 134 16 132
07-Jul 137 7 108
08-Jul 131 6 104
09-Jul 136 11 111
10-Jul 129 7 101
11-Jul 136 6 96
12-Jul 133 14 104
13-Jul 135 5 85
14-Jul 144 2 91
15-Jul 160 4 82
16-Jul 172 8 94
17-Jul 180 17 104
18-Jul 181 6 101
19-Jul 182 8 88
20-Jul 185 17 112
21-Jul 183 14 106
22-Jul 190 15 122
23-Jul 198 10 104
24-Jul 208 6 107
25-Jul 218 9 111
26-Jul 242 11 130
27-Jul 231 12 121
28-Jul 239 8 135
29-Jul 234 8 123
30-Jul 227 7 128
31-Jul 209 7 127
10 CM SUNSPOT SUNSPOT AUST AUST No of
FLUX NUMBER NUMBER A-INDEX T INDEX FLARES
Monthly Monthly Yearly Monthly Monthly >M1.0
Month Average Average Average Average Average
Jul 01 131.3 82.2 111.7 6.5 113.6 2
Aug 01 163.2 106.8 113.6 8.0 113.3 23
Sep 01 233.3 150.7 114.1 9.3 146.8 48
Oct 01 208.2 125.6 114.0 15.8 149.8 36
Nov 01 212.7 106.5 115.6 16.1 156.1 47
Dec 01 235.6 131.8 114.7 12.6 144.7 46
Jan 02 226.8 113.9 113.5 10.9 155.7 21
Feb 02 205.2 108.0 113.4p 11.1 154.4 19
Mar 02 179.5 98.1 109.8p 10.4 165.1 15
Apr 02 189.5 120.4 105.1p 11.2 143.2 17
May 02 178.4 120.8 102.1p 8.4 133.0 16
Jun 02 148.8 88.5 98.7p 6.2 113.9 4
Jul 02 174.5 99.9 94.7p 8.8 108.6 34
Monthly T indices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1992 153 172 155 134 95 80 88 66 68 66 84 90
1993 74 77 79 63 63 64 62 50 37 40 34 43
1994 57 41 42 26 15 14 23 18 20 20 20 20
1995 24 33 23 13 3 11 13 10 13 9 13 7
1996 12 7 4 2 5 2 3 4 4 3 11 15
1997 14 11 10 8 11 5 9 17 32 27 28 38
1998 40 41 43 56 46 56 76 75 86 70* 74 93
1999 94* 81 89 77 98* 124* 124* 105* 89* 91* 123 113
2000 108 120 157 152 133* 133 148* 140 124 130 137 141
2001 129 127 133 122 110 131 111 112 143 151 154 160*
2002 167* 154 169* 138 126 113* 110^ 102^ 94^ 87^ 81^ 76^
2003 73^ 70^ 67^ 64^ 61^ 59^ 57^ 54^ 52^ 49^ 47^ 45^
2004 43^ 41^ 39^ 37^ 35^ 33^ 31^ 29^ 28^ 26^ 24^ 23^
2005 21^ 20^ 19^ 17^ 16^ 15^ 14^ 13^ 12^ 11^ 10^ 9^
2006 8^ 8^ 7^ 6^ 6^ 5^ 5^ 5^ 4^ 4^ 4^ 4^
2007 4^ 5^ 5^ 6^ 7^ 8^ 9^ 11^ 13^ 16^ 18^ 21^
2008 25^ 28^ 32^ 36^ 41^ 45^ 50^ 54^ 59^ 64^ 68^ 73^
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.
The IPS Monthly T-index is derived from the observed monthly
median values of foF2 for each hour at up to 40 ionospheric
stations worldwide. These records become available from IPS
stations in Australia very soon after each month, but the
majority are received up to one year later. This means that
the exact observed value of the monthly T-index is not
available until some months later.
The predicted smoothed monthly T-indices are computed by
using a statistical analysis of the observed monthly T-indices
for all solar cycles since 1938. The IPS T-indices may not be
updated each month but only when sufficient new
data becomes available.
===============================================================================
2. FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS
DATE CLASS M CLASS X FLARE FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
FLARES FLARES MAX DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
02 Jul 02 M1.5/SF 2031UT
03 Jul 02 X1.5 /1B 0213UT 0208-0216UT
03 Jul 02 M1.1 1945UT
03 Jul 02 M5.3/1N 2010UT 2000-2021UT
04 Jul 02 M1.1/SF 0734UT
05 Jul 02 M3.2/SF 1326UT 1310-1337UT
06 Jul 02 M1.8 0342UT
07 Jul 02 M1.0 1143UT
08 Jul 02 M1.6 0921UT
08 Jul 02 M2.3 2320UT
09 Jul 02 M1.0 0905UT
11 Jul 02 M5.8/2B 1451UT 1444-1457UT
13 Jul 02 M1.1/2F 0008UT
15 Jul 02 X3.0 /3B 2008UT 1959-2014UT 1959-2014UT
15 Jul 02 M1.8 2132UT
17 Jul 02 M8.5/1B 0713UT 0658-0719UT
18 Jul 02 M2.2/SB 0337UT
18 Jul 02 X1.8 /2B 0744UT 0724-0749UT
20 Jul 02 X3.3 2130UT 2104-2154UT 2104-2154UT
23 Jul 02 X4.8 /2B 0035UT 0018-0047UT 0018-0047UT
24 Jul 02 M1.2/1F 1555UT
26 Jul 02 M4.9/1N 0010UT 0004-0016UT
26 Jul 02 M1.1/SN 0642UT
26 Jul 02 M1.3/SN 0829UT
26 Jul 02 M1.0/SF 1903UT
26 Jul 02 M8.7 2112UT 2051-2129UT
26 Jul 02 M5.3 2217UT 2203-2232UT
26 Jul 02 M4.6 2238UT 2236-2241UT
28 Jul 02 M2.3/SF 0035UT
28 Jul 02 M2.2 2312UT
29 Jul 02 M1.4 0023UT
29 Jul 02 M4.8 0238UT 0229-0246UT
29 Jul 02 M4.7 1044UT 1027-1113UT
31 Jul 02 M1.2/SB 0153UT
10 Mev Proton Events
Began End
07 07 2002 1820UT 08 07 2002 0435UT
16 07 2002 1810UT 18 07 2002 1600UT
19 07 2002 1145UT 19 07 2002 1535UT
22 07 2002 0715UT 26 07 2002 0845UT
26 07 2002 0945UT 26 07 2002 1055UT
2.1 Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity was at mostly moderate to high levels this month. A total
of 29 M class, and 5 X class events were observed. High solar activity
was more frequent during the second half of the month. The largest flare
for the month was an X4.8 on Jul 23. A pair of solar regions, (SEC
numbers 39 and 44) in close proximity to each other, were the origin
for much of this flare activity. These regions are now on the
south-west limb of the sun, and are due back 17-18 Aug.
===============================================================================
3. GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
DATE COMMENTS
06 Jul 02: Unsettled to Active
17 Jul 02: Minor storm periods, following weak sudden impulse (32nT) at 1604UT.
19-20 Jul 02: Unsettled to active, with isolated brief minor storm periods, following
two weak shocks (10nT) around 10 and 15UT.
29 Jul 02: Weak sudden impulse (20nT) observed at 1322UT, no significant activity
followed impulse.
No significant disturbances were observed during the months. Moderately
disturbed conditions were observed on 6,17 and 19-20 July.
===============================================================================
4. IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
No significantly depressed conditions were observed in the Australian/New
Zealand region this month. Mildly degraded HF conditions may have been
experienced local night hours on 6,17,19-20 July. Polar cap HF cicuits
were likey to have been degraded on 7,16,19,22 and 26 July due to
solar proton events on these days.
===============================================================================
5. IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED
WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
04 Jul 02 28 04 Jul 02 05 Jul 02
18 Jul 02 29 19 Jul 02 21 Jul 02
19 Jul 02 30 20 Jul 02 21 Jul 02
19 Jul 02 31 20 Jul 02 21 Jul 02
23 Jul 02 32 23 Jul 02 25 Jul 02
24 Jul 02 33 25 Jul 02 26 Jul 02
26 Jul 02 34 27 Jul 02 29 Jul 02
28 Jul 02 35 29 Jul 02 30 Jul 02
29 Jul 02 36 30 Jul 02 01 Aug 02
GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
04 Jul 02 21 05 Jul 02 07 Jul 02
08 Jul 02 22 09 Jul 02 09 Jul 02
15 Jul 02 23 16 Jul 02 18 Jul 02
19 Jul 02 24 20 Jul 02 21 Jul 02
24 Jul 02 25 25 Jul 02 26 Jul 02
28 Jul 02 26 28 Jul 02 29 Jul 02
ALERTS:
02 Jul 02: Flare Alert
03 Jul 02: Flare Alert
05 Jul 02: Flare Alert
06 Jul 02: Flare Alert
08 Jul 02: Flare Alert
11 Jul 02: Flare Alert
15 Jul 02: Flare Alert
17 Jul 02: Flare Alert
17 Jul 02: Geomagnetic
18 Jul 02: Flare Alert
20 Jul 02: Geomagnetic
20 Jul 02: Flare Alert
21 Jul 02: Flare Alert
23 Jul 02: Flare Alert
24 Jul 02: Flare Alert
26 Jul 02: Flare Alert
28 Jul 02: Flare Alert
29 Jul 02: Flare Alert
31 Jul 02: Flare Alert
SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
03 Jul 02: SWF Alert (0209-0244 UT)
23 Jul 02: SWF Alert (0019-0224 UT)
29 Jul 02: SWF Alert (0234-0254 UT)
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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