[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - November 01

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 4 11:33:22 EST 2001


SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - NOVEMBER 2001
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1.     SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES

             SOLAR    AUST       AUST
Day      10 cm flux   A-INDEX   T INDEX
01-Nov         236       14      157
02-Nov         214        8      150
03-Nov         216        2      183
04-Nov         227        6      189
05-Nov         235       22      161
06-Nov         237       86       90
07-Nov         269       14      126
08-Nov         248       15      163
09-Nov         271       10      180
10-Nov         246       11      167
11-Nov         234        8      161
12-Nov         227        3      186
13-Nov         232        4      186
14-Nov         217        4      178
15-Nov         207       11      163
16-Nov         202       11      160
17-Nov         199       14      166
18-Nov         188       10      157
19-Nov         191       19      121
20-Nov         185        8      143
21-Nov         184        5      186
22-Nov         190       13      169
23-Nov         177       15      119
24-Nov         173      127       73
25-Nov         170       17       66
26-Nov         175        6      152
27-Nov         190        6      185
28-Nov         199        6      187
29-Nov         216        5      180
30-Nov         226        3      180


          10 CM    SUNSPOT  SUNSPOT  AUST     AUST     No of
          FLUX     NUMBER   NUMBER   A-INDEX  T INDEX  FLARES
          Monthly  Monthly  Yearly   Monthly  Monthly  >M1.0 
Month     Average  Average  Average  Average  Average 
Nov 00     178.8    106.5    112.7     14.4    135.4   23
Dec 00     173.0    104.5    112.1      8.2    143.0    7
Jan 01     166.7     95.1    108.8      8.4    139.2    8
Feb 01     147.3     80.1    104.2      7.0    137.2    1
Mar 01     177.7    114.2    104.8     14.0    142.6   36
Apr 01     178.3    108.2    107.6     14.4    129.4   45
May 01     148.7     97.3    108.7      7.1    118.0   11
Jun 01     173.7    134.0    108.7p     5.9    135.8   13
Jul 01     131.3     82.2    109.0p     6.5    113.6    2
Aug 01     163.2    106.8    110.1p     8.0    113.3   23
Sep 01     233.3    150.7    110.3p     9.3    146.8   48
Oct 01     208.2    125.6    109.2p    15.8    149.8   36
Nov 01     212.7    106.5    108.6p    16.1    156.1   47

               Monthly T indices
       Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
1992   153   172   155   134    95    80    88    66    68    66    84    90  
1993    74    77    79    63    63    64    62    50    37    40    34    43  
1994    57    41    42    26    15    14    23    18    20    20    20    20  
1995    24    33    23    13     3    11    13    10    13     9    13     7  
1996    12     7     4     2     5     2     3     4     4     3    11    15  
1997    14    11    10     8    11     5     9    17    32    27    28    38  
1998    40    41    43    56    46    56    76    75    86    69    74    93  
1999    94*   81*   89    77    98*  124   124   106    89    91*  123   113* 
2000   108   120   158   154   133   133   147   140   124   130   137   140  
2001   133*  133*  137*  121*  113*  135   108*  109*  146   136*  112^  109^ 
2002   106^  104^  101^   96^   92^   89^   87^   84^   81^   79^   76^   74^ 
2003    71^   69^   66^   64^   61^   59^   57^   54^   52^   49^   47^   45^ 
2004    43^   41^   39^   37^   35^   33^   31^   29^   28^   26^   24^   23^ 
2005    21^   20^   19^   17^   16^   15^   14^   13^   12^   11^   10^    9^ 
2006     8^    8^    7^    6^    6^    5^    5^    5^    4^    4^    4^    4^ 
2007     4^    5^    5^    6^    7^    8^    9^   11^   13^   16^   18^   21^ 
2008    25^   28^   32^   36^   41^   45^   50^   54^   59^   64^   68^   73^ 
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.

===============================================================================

2.     FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS 
DATE             CLASS M    CLASS X     FLARE     FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
                 FLARES     FLARES      MAX       DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
01 Nov 01	 M1.3/SF            	0653UT
01 Nov 01	 M3.3/SF            	1210UT    1125-1308UT
01 Nov 01	 M1.7/SF            	1503UT
01 Nov 01	 M1.5/SF            	1958UT
01 Nov 01	 M1.1/1F            	2352UT
02 Nov 01	 M1.1/SF            	0809UT
04 Nov 01	            X1.0 /3B    1620UT    1603-1657UT
05 Nov 01	 M1.7/SF            	0250UT
05 Nov 01	 M1.2               	0854UT
05 Nov 01	 M2.1/1N            	0915UT
05 Nov 01	 M1.2               	1537UT
06 Nov 01	 M2.0/1B            	0300UT
06 Nov 01	 M1.2               	0625UT
06 Nov 01	 M1.2/SF            	1351UT
06 Nov 01	 M1.1/SF            	1549UT
07 Nov 01	 M1.1/SF            	0146UT
07 Nov 01	 M1.4               	0444UT
07 Nov 01	 M2.0/SF            	0933UT
07 Nov 01	 M5.7/1N            	2001UT    1930-2026UT
08 Nov 01	 M9.1/1N            	0704UT    0659-0706UT
08 Nov 01	 M1.3/SF            	1229UT
08 Nov 01	 M1.4               	1409UT
08 Nov 01	 M4.2/2F            	1535UT    1459-1600UT
09 Nov 01	 M1.6/1F            	0133UT
09 Nov 01	 M3.1/1F            	0539UT    0520-0548UT
09 Nov 01	 M1.0/SF            	0629UT
09 Nov 01	 M3.3/1N            	0856UT    0841-0908UT
09 Nov 01	 M3.0               	0943UT    0916-1001UT
09 Nov 01	 M1.9/SF            	1841UT
10 Nov 01	 M1.0/SF            	0050UT
10 Nov 01	 M2.3/1F            	2000UT
11 Nov 01	 M1.4/SF            	1103UT
12 Nov 01	 M1.6/1B            	0757UT
13 Nov 01	 M1.5/SN            	0626UT
14 Nov 01	 M1.9/1F            	2211UT
17 Nov 01	 M2.8/1N            	0525UT
22 Nov 01	 M1.2/1F            	1708UT
22 Nov 01	 M3.8/2B            	2036UT    2018-2052UT
22 Nov 01	 M9.9               	2330UT    2232-0006UT
25 Nov 01	            X1.1        0951UT    0945-0954UT
27 Nov 01	 M2.2/1F            	2121UT
28 Nov 01	 M6.9/1B            	1635UT    1626-1641UT
29 Nov 01	 M1.1/SF            	0149UT
29 Nov 01	 M5.5/1N            	1036UT    1012-1043UT
30 Nov 01	 M3.5/1N            	0106UT    0100-0111UT
30 Nov 01	 M1.5               	1418UT
30 Nov 01	 M2.9               	2001UT

10Mev Proton Events:
     Began            Ended
04 11 2001 1710UT 09 11 2001 1815UT
09 11 2001 2145UT 09 11 2001 2225UT
19 11 2001 1240UT 20 11 2001 1335UT
23 11 2001 0010UT 27 11 2001 1435UT


2.1     Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity was at moderate to high during the beginning 
and end of the month. A lull in flare activity was observed just 
after the middle of the month. A total of 47 flares were 
observed, 45 M class events and 2 X class events.
The largest flare for the month was an X1.1 on Nov 25. Four proton
events were observed during the month.
===============================================================================

3.     GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)

DATE                     COMMENTS
01 Nov 01:     Active periods
05 Nov 01:     Active to Minor Storm, two weak sudden impulses observed 
	       1555UT (14nT) and 1753UT (12nT).
06 Nov 01:     Severe Storm Levels, following a moderate sudden impulse 
	       of 84nT at 0151UT.
15 Nov 01:     Weak sudden impulse of 14nT observed at 1509UT, no 
	       significant activity followed impulse.
19 Nov 01:     Unsettled to Active, a weak sudden impulse of 16nT was
	       observed at 1815UT. 
24 Nov 01:     Severe Storm Levels, a weak sudden impulse of 35nT was 
	       observed at 0501UT, and a strong sudden impulse of 102nT
               was observed at 0556UT.
25 Nov 01:     Quiet to Active, a weak sudden impulse of 20nT was observed  
	       at 0535UT.

Most of the disturbances this month were due to coronal mass ejections.
Severe storm levels were observed on 06 Nov and 24 Nov, with the local
A index reaching 86 and 127 respectively.
===============================================================================

4.     IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)
06 Nov 01 Northern region MUFs  enhanced  20%
	  Southern region MUFs  near normal to depressed -20%
07 Nov 01 Northern region MUFs  enhanced  20%
	  Southern region MUFs  depressed -30%
24 Nov 01 Northern region MUFs  enhanced  25%
	  Southern region MUFs  depressed  30% second half of UT day.
25 Nov 01 Northern region MUFs mildly depressed.
	  Southern region MUFs depressed 20-40% most of UT
	   day.

MUFs during the month were generally 15-20% above IPS predicted
monthly values for November. Strongly depressed conditions were 
observed southern Aus/NZ region during intervals 06-07 Nov and 
24-25 Nov in association with coronal mass ejection induced 
geomagnetic storm activity. 
===============================================================================

5.     IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED

WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
02 Nov 01	67	03 Nov 01	05 Nov 01
02 Nov 01	68	04 Nov 01	05 Nov 01
04 Nov 01	69	06 Nov 01	07 Nov 01
05 Nov 01	70	06 Nov 01	06 Nov 01
05 Nov 01	71	06 Nov 01	08 Nov 01
08 Nov 01	72	09 Nov 01	11 Nov 01
21 Nov 01	73	24 Nov 01	25 Nov 01
23 Nov 01	74	23 Nov 01	25 Nov 01
23 Nov 01	75	24 Nov 01	27 Nov 01
24 Nov 01	76	25 Nov 01	25 Nov 01
28 Nov 01	77	28 Nov 01	30 Nov 01
30 Nov 01	78	01 Dec 01	02 Dec 01
30 Nov 01	79	01 Dec 01	03 Dec 01


GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
02 Nov 01	42	04 Nov 01	05 Nov 01
04 Nov 01	43	06 Nov 01	07 Nov 01
06 Nov 01	44	06 Nov 01	07 Nov 01
21 Nov 01	45	24 Nov 01	24 Nov 01
23 Nov 01	46	24 Nov 01	26 Nov 01
30 Nov 01	47	01 Dec 01	02 Dec 01

ALERTS: 
01 Nov 01: Flare Alert
01 Nov 01: Geomagnetic
04 Nov 01: Flare Alert
05 Nov 01: Flare Alert
05 Nov 01: Geomagnetic
06 Nov 01: Geomagnetic
06 Nov 01: Flare Alert
07 Nov 01: Flare Alert
07 Nov 01: Geomagnetic
08 Nov 01: Flare Alert
09 Nov 01: Flare Alert
10 Nov 01: Flare Alert
14 Nov 01: Flare Alert
17 Nov 01: Flare Alert
22 Nov 01: Flare Alert
22 Nov 01: Flare Alert
24 Nov 01: Geomagnetic
25 Nov 01: Geomagnetic
25 Nov 01: Flare Alert
27 Nov 01: Flare Alert
28 Nov 01: Flare Alert
29 Nov 01: Flare Alert
30 Nov 01: Flare Alert

SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE	SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
06 Nov 01: SWF Alert (0254-0309 UT)
08 Nov 01: SWF Alert (0659-0709 UT)
09 Nov 01: SWF Alert (0524-0559 UT)
23 Nov 01: SWF Alert (2249-0229 UT)
30 Nov 01: SWF Alert (0059-0119 UT)


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