[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - October 00
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 3 10:44:08 EST 2000
SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - OCTOBER 2000
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES
SOLAR AUST AUST
Day 10 cm flux A-INDEX T INDEX
01-Oct 202 11 127
02-Oct 203 13 142
03-Oct 192 21 140
04-Oct 184 38 118
05-Oct 174 50 64
06-Oct 158 3 143
07-Oct 156 7 145
08-Oct 149 2 157
09-Oct 141 4 155
10-Oct 140 5 147
11-Oct 151 10 106
12-Oct 163 7 120
13-Oct 168 16 140
14-Oct 163 34 114
15-Oct 161 7 71
16-Oct 161 8 118
17-Oct 154 9 157
18-Oct 151 10 155
19-Oct 158 8 122
20-Oct 161 2 123
21-Oct 158 2 139
22-Oct 160 13 150
23-Oct 167 10 140
24-Oct 159 10 145
25-Oct 164 6 131
26-Oct 171 6 138
27-Oct 176 2 155
28-Oct 182 18 148
29-Oct 187 19 134
30-Oct 194 10 150
31-Oct 193 11 142
10 CM FLUX SUNSPOT NUMBER AUST AUST No of
A-INDEX T INDEX FLARES
Monthly Monthly Yearly Monthly Monthly >M1.0
Month Average Average Average Average Average
Oct 99 164.9 116.4 107.7 17.8 109.8 9
Nov 99 191.7 132.7 110.9 14.7 126.9 39
Dec 99 169.8 86.4 111.0 13.1 138.3 9
Jan 00 158.3 90.2 112.8 13.6 123.9 9
Feb 00 173.7 112.3 116.6 15.9 124.9 15
Mar 00 208.2 138.2 119.8 8.2 147.1 38
Apr 00 184.2 125.3 120.7p 10.3 154.9 11
May 00 184.5 120.8 120.3p 9.7 138.7 20
Jun 00 178.8 124.9 122.9p 10.0 133.5 24
Jul 00 200.0 169.1 127.2p 12.8 147.3 54
Aug 00 163.1 130.5 130.4p 10.7 145.9 03
Sep 00 182.1 109.9 131.5p 13.1 132.1 15
Oct 00 167.8 100.1 132.1p 12.0 133.4 11
Monthly T indices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1991 143 176 170 163 136 120 140 124 136 130 120 130
1992 152 173 155 134 96 80 88 66 68 66 84 89
1993 75 77 79 63 63 65 64 50 38 41 34 43
1994 57 41 43 26 16 15 23 18 21 20 21 20
1995 24 34 23 13 4 12 12 10 13 9 13 7
1996 11 8 4 2 5 2 3 4 4 4 10 15
1997 14 11 10 9 11 6 9 17* 32* 28 28 39
1998 40 43 45 57 44 55 77* 76* 86 70 74 93
1999 95 82 89* 78 98* 124 125* 106 89* 92* 122* 114
2000 108 121* 161* 153 138* 130* 146* 141* 136* 134^ 133^ 133^
2001 133^ 132^ 131^ 131^ 131^ 130^ 130^ 129^ 128^ 126^ 125^ 123^
2002 120^ 118^ 116^ 113^ 111^ 108^ 105^ 103^ 100^ 97^ 94^ 91^
2003 88^ 85^ 82^ 79^ 76^ 73^ 70^ 68^ 65^ 62^ 59^ 56^
2004 54^ 51^ 49^ 46^ 44^ 41^ 39^ 37^ 35^ 33^ 31^ 29^
2005 27^ 25^ 24^ 22^ 21^ 19^ 18^ 16^ 15^ 14^ 13^ 12^
2006 11^ 10^ 9^ 8^ 7^ 7^ 6^ 5^ 5^ 5^ 4^ 4^
2007 4^ 5^ 5^ 6^ 7^ 8^ 9^ 11^ 13^ 16^ 18^ 21^
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.
The ASAPS V4 training package is now available on the Web at:
www.ips.gov.au/asaps/asaps4.html
===============================================================================
2. FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS
DATE CLASS M CLASS X FLARE FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
FLARES FLARES MAX DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
01 Oct 00 M5.0 0701UT 0623-0725UT
01 Oct 00 M2.2/SF 1410UT
02 Oct 00 M1.0 0013UT
02 Oct 00 M1.4/1N 1801UT
12 Oct 00 M1.5/SF 2049UT
14 Oct 00 M1.1/SF 0840UT
16 Oct 00 M2.5 0728UT
21 Oct 00 M3.0/1N 1831UT 1813-1846UT
27 Oct 00 M1.1 2056UT
28 Oct 00 M1.7 1849UT
29 Oct 00 M4.4/2B 0157UT 0128-0209UT
2.1 Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity was at mostly low to moderate levels during the
month of October, with the exception of the 01 Oct, when high
activity was observed due to an M5 event at 0701UT. This
vent and the M4.4 event at 0157UT on 29 Oct, where the
two largest xray flare events for the month. Proton events
were observed 16-17 Oct and 26 Oct.
===============================================================================
3. GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
DATE COMMENTS
03-05 Oct 00: Quiet to Major Storm.
13-14 Oct 00: Active
28-29 Oct 00: Quiet to Minor Storm
Three disturbed geomagnetic periods were observed this
month. The strongest disturbance was observed during
the interval 03-05 Oct. This activity is believed to
be related to coronal hole and coronal mass ejection
events. Activity was most intense on 05 Oct, with the
local A index reaching 50. Activity during periods
13-14 Oct is also beleived related to both coronal hole
coronal mass ejection events, whilst activity during
the interval 28-29 Oct is believed associated with a
coronal mass ejection on 25 Oct.
===============================================================================
4. IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
04-05 Oct 00: Regional MUFs depressed 20-50%.
11-12 Oct 00: Southern regional MUfs depressed 15%
15 Oct 00: Regional MUFs depressed 15-40%. Spread F
local night hours.
19-20 Oct 00: Southern regional MUFs depressed 15%.
Some Spread F local night.
25 Oct 00: Southern region MUFs depressed 15-25%.
The deepest depression for the month was observed during
the interval 04-05 Oct, in association with major geomagnetic
storm activity during this period. Polar HF propagation was
degraded on 16-17 Oct and 26 Oct due to proton events on these
days.
===============================================================================
5. IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED
WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
3 Oct 0 68 4 Oct 0 4 Oct 0
4 Oct 0 69 5 Oct 0 5 Oct 0
10 Oct 0 70 12 Oct 0 13 Oct 0
13 Oct 0 71 16 Oct 0 17 Oct 0
25 Oct 0 72 28 Oct 0 30 Oct 0
29 Oct 0 73 31 Oct 0 1 Nov 0
GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
4 Oct 0 41 5 Oct 0 5 Oct 0
10 Oct 0 42 12 Oct 0 13 Oct 0
13 Oct 0 43 16 Oct 0 17 Oct 0
19 Oct 0 44 21 Oct 0 24 Oct 0
25 Oct 0 45 27 Oct 0 29 Oct 0
29 Oct 0 46 31 Oct 0 1 Nov 0
ALERTS:
01 Oct 00: Flare (Final)
01 Oct 00: Magnetic (kp)
02 Oct 00: Magnetic (Learmonth)
02 Oct 00: Flare (Final)
03 Oct 00: Magnetic (Learmonth)
04 Oct 00: Magnetic Pulsation (pc3)
04 Oct 00: Magnetic (Learmonth)
05 Oct 00: Magnetic (kp)
05 Oct 00: Magnetic (Learmonth)
05 Oct 00: Magnetic (Learmonth)
06 Oct 00: Magnetic (kp)
13 Oct 00: Magnetic (Learmonth)
14 Oct 00: Magnetic (Learmonth)
14 Oct 00: Magnetic Pulsation (pc3)
15 Oct 00: Magnetic (kp)
16 Oct 00: Proton
26 Oct 00: Proton
28 Oct 00: Magnetic (Learmonth)
SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
01 Oct 2000 2317-0020 UT
02 Oct 2000 0010-0035 UT
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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