[Ips-hf-warning] IPS HF COMMS WARNING

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 30 18:27:14 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS CORRECTED HF RADIO COMMUNICATIONS WARNING 03/80
ISSUED AT 30/0249Z OCTOBER 2003
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

The CME observed on 28 October arrived at 0611UT on 29 
October, about 12 hours before anticipated. The effect
of this CME together with the strong proton event currently
in progress have severly affected the HF conditions in many
parts of the globe. The HF conditions may be expected
to slightly improve in the late hours on 30 October (UT-day).
The HF conditions may again start to degrade in the second 
half of the UT day on 31 October due to the anticipated effect 
of another CME activity that was observed on 29 October. The 
HF conditions are expected to remain modestly to severly 
degraded on 01 November due to the effect of this CME. 

DEGRADED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FROM 30 OCTOBER 2003 TO 01 NOVEMBER 2003
IF COMMS DIFFICULTIES EXPERIENCED TRY A LOWER FREQUENCY BAND
FOLLOW ON HF WARNING FROM HF WARNING: 78
_____________________________________________________________

SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST       HF COMMS FADEOUTS             
30 Oct:  high                 Probable             
31 Oct:  high                 Probable             
01 Nov:  high                 Probable             

HF COMMUNICATIONS FORECAST (AUSTRALIAN/NEW ZEALAND REGION)
                                   FREQUENCY BANDS  
       T-index  MUFs          2  4  6  8 12 16 22 26
_____________________________________________________________
30 Oct    15   -15% to -40%   2  4  6  8  8 12 12 16 
31 Oct    50   -5%/normal     2  4  6  8 12 16 16 22 
 1 Nov    20   -10% to -25%   2  4  6  8 12 12 16 22 


An IPS MUF depression HF Warning and IPS shortwave fadeout 
HF Warning are both current. Shortwave fadeouts degrade 
lower shortwave radio frequencies first (through increased 
ionospheric absorption) and the usual strategy during shortwave 
fadeouts is to try a higher frequency. In contrast, during 
periods of ionospheric MUF depression, the upper frequencies 
are degraded first and the usual strategy is to use a 
lower frequency. 

If a shortwave fadeout occurs during a period when ionospheric 
MUFs are depressed the available HF bandwidth will be "squeezed", 
with increased absorption raising the lowest usable frequency 
and the ionospheric depression lowering the highest usable 
frequency. Under such conditions it is suggested that the 
HF communicator operates on the highest usable frequency, 
even though this may well be in fact lower than what is normally 
supported for that particular circuit.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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