[Ips-geo-warning] IPS GEOMAGNETIC WARNING

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 01/15
ISSUED AT 16/0002Z APRIL 2001
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

AN X14 FLARE WAS OBSERVED FROM SOLAR REGION 9415.
THIS REGION IS NEAR THE WESTERN LIMB OF THE SUN.
AVAILABLE DATA FROM X14 EVENT SUGGESTS A SHOCK ARRIVAL 
WINDOW OF 08-17UT ON 18 APRIL. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY MAY NOT 
BE STRONG DUE TO EXTREME SOLAR WESTWARD LOCATION OF EVENT. 
ALSO, THERE IS A 27 DAY RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE PATTERN SUGGESTING 
ACTIVE PERIODS ON 18 APR. 

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
FROM 18-19 APRIL 2001.
-------------------------------------------------------------
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST 
18 Apr:  Active to minor storm
19 Apr:  Active declining to unsettled.


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060