[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 April 22 issued 2338 UT on 30 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Sun May 1 09:38:44 EST 2022

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 01 MAY - 03 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Apr:  R3

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.6    0501UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.4    0534UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M4.8    0958UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  X1.1    1347UT  probable   all    European
  M1.9    1947UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Apr: 120/72

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 May             02 May             03 May
Activity     R1-R2              R0                 R0
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 30-Apr reached R3, with 
an X-class flare and a few M-class flares from region 2994 (beyond 
the northwest limb). Several coronal mass ejections were observed, 
but none were Earth-directed. Solar activity is expected to be 
at R1-R2 levels on 1-May and R0 for 2-3 May. The solar wind on 
30-Apr varied between 340-570 km/s, currently around 490 km/s. 
The total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength peaked 
early around 11 nT then declined to around 7 nT. The north-south 
(Bz) IMF range was +6/-10 nT. Coronal coronal hole effects have 
waned, but a CME launched 29 May could result in mildly disturbed 
conditions on 2-May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Apr: G0

Estimated Indices 30 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   32322301
      Darwin               6   32221202
      Townsville           9   32322311
      Learmonth           10   33322302
      Alice Springs        8   32322301
      Gingin               9   32321312
      Canberra             8   32331201
      Hobart              10   32332311    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    19   34452401
      Casey               14   44323222
      Mawson              58   77452326

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             19                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13   3422 3323     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 May    12    G0
02 May    15    G0
03 May    12    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 30-Apr, with G0-G3 conditions in the Antarctic 
region. G0 conditions are likely for Australia during 1-3 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 30-Apr, with minor 
degradations in propagation conditions at high latitudes. Similar 
conditions are expected for 1-3 May, with short-wave fadeouts 
possible 1-May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
30 Apr    88

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      64
Apr      46
May      49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 May    90    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
02 May    90    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
03 May    80    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 30 
April and is current for 30 Apr to 2 May. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 30 Apr were mostly above monthly predicted values. 
Spread-F was observed at Hobart 11-20 UT. MUFs are expected to 
be 15-25% above monthly predicted values for 1-3 May. Short-wave 
fadeouts are possible on 1-May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Apr
Speed: 509 km/sec  Density:    7.3 p/cc  Temp:   257000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.