[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 March 22 issued 2330 UT on 17 Mar 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 18 10:30:57 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 18 MARCH - 20 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Mar: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 17 Mar, with two C-class
flares from region 2965 (N21W42). There are six numbered regions
on the solar disc. A south-west CME first observed in LASCO C2
imagery at 17/2124 has yet to be analysed. Solar activity is
expected to be low to moderate for 18-20 Mar. The solar wind
speed continued its downward trend and is now around around 305
km/s. Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) total strength (Bt)
peaked at 5 nT and is currently around 4 nT. The north-south
IMF component (Bz) varied between +3 nT and -4 nT. A CME could
graze Earth late 17 Mar or early 18 Mar, resulting in a mild
solar wind disturbance.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 12121100
Darwin 3 12121101
Townsville 4 22221101
Learmonth 3 12121101
Alice Springs 3 12221100
Gingin 4 22221100
Canberra 2 12121000
Hobart 4 03122100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Mar :
Macquarie Island 4 12132000
Casey 10 34421101
Mawson 15 44321134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 1001 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Mar 12 Unsettled
19 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region on UT day 17 Mar, with some active periods in the Antarctic.
Australian conditions are expected to remain quiet until the
possible CME arrival late 17 Mar or early 18 Mar, leading to
unsettled conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Some high-latitude depressions are possible during 18-20
Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Mar 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 55% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 59
Mar 42
Apr 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Mar 55 Near predicted monthly values
19 Mar 55 Near predicted monthly values
20 Mar 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 15
March and is current for 16-18 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 17 Mar were near predicted monthly values to
enhanced. Near monthly predicted MUFs are expected for 18-20
Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Mar
Speed: 407 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 87300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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