[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 June 22 issued 2330 UT on 29 Jun 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 30 09:30:49 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JUNE 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jun 01 Jul 02 Jul
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Jun was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently four
numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk, the most complex
of which is AR3042 (N08W31, beta) which has shown some decay.
AR3040 (S14W36, alpha) is unstable, and the remaining two regions
have decayed. An unnumbered region currently located at S15E42
has shown some growth. Solar activity is expected to be at the
R0 level over 30-Jun to 02-Jul. A filament eruption was observed
in SDO and H-alpha imagery from 28/2116UT near N15E09, which
resulted in a CME visible in STEREO-A imagery from 29/0209UT,
and only very faintly visible in LASCO C2. Model runs indicate
a weak impact to Earth from late on 03-Jul as a result of this
CME. A southwest CME was also observed, visible in LASCO C2 from
29/1036UT and is considered a farside event (not geoeffective).
Another southwest CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 imagery
from 29/1515UT, which may be associated with ejected material
visible in H-alpha imagery near N04W26 from 29/1400UT. Model
runs likewise indicate a weak impact to Earth from late on 03-Jul
as a result of this CME. The solar wind speed on 29-Jun was elevated
with a declining trend, ranging between 430-530 km/s, and is
currently near 450 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to continue a declining trend towards background levels over
30-Jun to 02-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 29 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 21231000
Darwin 3 21221000
Learmonth 4 21322000
Alice Springs 3 21221000
Gingin 4 21231000
Canberra 4 21231000
Hobart 4 21232000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jun :
Macquarie Island 4 21132000
Casey 6 33321000
Mawson 14 44432003
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A
Fredericksburg
Planetary
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg
Planetary 2322 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jun 8 G0
01 Jul 5 G0
02 Jul 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 29-Jun. G0 conditions
are expected over 30-Jun to 02-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 30-Jun to 02-Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jun 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 79
Jun 57
Jul 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 29-Jun were
mostly near monthly predicted values, with mild depressions in
northern Australian regions. Spread-F was observed at Hobart
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values over 30-Jun to 02-Jul, with mild depressions possible
during local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 518 km/sec Density: 7.2 p/cc Temp: 256000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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