[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 June 22 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jun 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 16 09:30:48 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JUNE 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 16 JUNE - 18 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jun: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 138/92 138/92
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Jun was at R0 level, with
several C-class flares. There are seven solar regions on the
visible disk, with AR3031 (S25W15, beta-gamma) the largest and
most magnetically complex region. However, this region appears
to show some decay in its trailer spots. Solar region AR3030
(N20W03 beta) has shown some growth. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 16-18 Jun. No significant Earth directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on 15-Jun was elevated,
ranging between 500-623 km/s. A weak shock from the M3 flare/CME
on 13 Jun was observed in the solar wind at 0401UT on 15 Jun.
However, solar wind IMF Bz was only mildly southward (-5nT to
-8nT) post shock arrival during the interval 0930-1430UT. The
peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was
15 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +11 to
-14 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over
16-18 Jun due to the combined effects of an equatorial coronal
hole and declining CME effects, with an overall declining trend.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jun: G0, with an isolated
G1 period
Estimated Indices 15 Jun : A K
Australian Region 13 23334312
Darwin 9 23323211
Learmonth 18 14335412
Alice Springs 11 23333312
Gingin 15 24334322
Canberra 10 13333302
Hobart 11 23333312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jun :
Macquarie Island 27 12555522
Casey 17 25433312
Mawson 33 36644332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 2122 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jun 17 G0, slight chance of G1
17 Jun 10 G0
18 Jun 10 G0
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 14 June and
is current for 15-16 Jun. G0 to G1 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region. Antarctic region reached G2
on UT day 15 Jun. A weak (14nT) impulse was observed at 0435UT
on 15 Jun, from the M3 flare/CME on 13 Jun. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be predominately at the G0 level over 16-18 Jun,
with a slight chance for an isolated G1 period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions observed middle to
high latitudes local night hours on 15 Jun. Mildly degraded HF
conditions expected for middle to high latitudes on 16 Jun, improving
to normal over 17-18 Jun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jun 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-25%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 79
Jun 57
Jul 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jun 65 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun 65 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jun 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 48 was issued
on 14 June and is current for 14-16 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 15-Jun were mostly near monthly predicted values.
Spread-F was observed at Hobart and Canberra during local night
hours. Due to weak geomagnetic activity induced from the arrival
of a recent CME, no significant ionospheric depressions were
observed after local dawn this morning. MUFs are now expected to
to be mostly near monthly predicted values over 16-18 Jun, with
mild degradations possible during local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jun
Speed: 474 km/sec Density: 7.0 p/cc Temp: 222000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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