[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 June 22 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jun 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 11 09:30:50 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JUNE 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun: R1 - Minor
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1054UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Jun reached the R1 level
due to an isolated low level M1 flare at 10/1054UT from solar
region AR3030 (N20E62). This region is currently the largest
and most active solar region on the disk. Solar region AR3029
(S21W13) has decayed. Further isolated R1 flare activity is possible
from region AR3030, though current flare model probabilities
for R1 and R3 level events are both at 1%. There was some activity
behind the solar eastern limb (S20), with STEREO A EUVI imagery
indicating a minor region behind the limb at this solar latitude.
A very small solar filament located near N12W20 erupted at around
10/0600UT (GONG Halpha imagery). No Earth-directed CMEs have
been observed in the past 24 hours. Over 9-10 Jun several CMEs
are visible to the east and west but these are considered behind/on
the limb events. The solar wind speed on 10-Jun varied between
272 and 322km/sec. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. There is a weak 27 day recurrent
pattern for mildly elevated solar wind conditions for the period
11-13 Jun, though no coronal hole appears to be evident west
of the solar central meridian in SDO satellite imagery. An isolated
equatorial coronal hole is visible in the eastern solar hemisphere
which 27 day recurrence patterns suggest will elevate the solar
wind during the interval 16-19 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 11012000
Darwin 2 11012001
Learmonth 2 11012000
Alice Springs 2 11012000
Gingin 1 11002000
Canberra 1 11002000
Hobart 1 10002000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00002000
Casey 3 22112000
Mawson 5 22121103
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2301 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jun 5 G0
12 Jun 5 G0
13 Jun 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 10-Jun. G0 conditions
are expected over 11-13 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
12 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
13 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 11-13 Jun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jun 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 79
Jun 57
Jul 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 10-Jun were
near monthly predicted values. Spread-F was observed at Australian
east coast sites during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near monthly predicted values over 11-13 Jun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jun
Speed: 304 km/sec Density: 12.6 p/cc Temp: 35700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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