[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 June 22 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jun 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 6 09:30:46 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JUNE 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 06 JUNE - 08 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jun:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jun:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jun             07 Jun             08 Jun
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05 Jun was at the R0 level. 
Region 3029 (S29E49) was the most active of the spotted groups, 
producing two low-level C flares. The other regions are stable 
or in decline. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level 
over 06-08 Jun. A filament erupted from the vicinity of S35W47 
around 05/1202 UT resulting in a southwest CME. There was also 
a southeast CME that was probably associated with the flare activity 
in AR3029 around 05/1148 UT. Neither of these CMEs are likely 
to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed on 05 Jun peaked at 
300 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength 
(Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south component (Bz) range was +6/-5 
nT. A minor shock in the solar wind due to a CME observed on 
02 Jun is still possible in the first half of 06 Jun. If this 
occurs, solar wind parameters are expected to be mildly elevated 
over 06 Jun. Solar wind parameters should then settle over 07 
Jun. There is the possibility of a weak CME impact late on 07 
to early 08 Jun, which may slightly elevate wind parameters above 
ambient levels on 08 Jun.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jun: G0

Estimated Indices 05 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   00100111
      Darwin               2   01101111
      Learmonth            2   10101111
      Alice Springs        1   01000110
      Gingin               2   10100021
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   00010000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                3   11111021
      Mawson              15   22112163

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1110 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jun    15    G0 with a chance of G1 conditions
07 Jun     9    G0
08 Jun     7    G0

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 2 June and 
is current for 5-6 Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on 05 Jun. G0-G2 conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region. G0 conditions are expected on 06-08 
Jun with a chance of G1 conditions on 06 Jun due to the anticipated 
arrival of a CME first observed on 02 Jun.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on 06-08 Jun. There may be some minor to moderate degradations 
on 06 Jun due to the anticipated arrival of a CME first observed 
on 02 Jun.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Jun    58

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions
      to 30% at Darwin 11-16 UT.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      79
Jun      57
Jul      59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jun    55    Near predicted monthly values
07 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values
08 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 05 Jun were 
mostly near monthly predicted values to about 15% depressed. 
Nighttime spread F was observed at Hobart, Perth, Learmonth and 
Townsville. Sporadic E was observed at Brisbane, Canberra, Darwin 
and Learmonth 08-11 UT. MUFs are expected to be near monthly 
predicted values with occasional mild depressions over 06-08 
Jun.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jun
Speed: 295 km/sec  Density:    7.1 p/cc  Temp:    20300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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